Thailand and Turkey are two of my favorite countries to visit and I’ve been to each more than a dozen times and I’ve bent every corner of each. And they both of unfortunate political situations. I was in Thailand last month and it was the middle of an election campaign. Yesterday was the election and… the good guys won— and by a lot. Basically, the Thais rejected the military-backed government of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and are handing power over to a coalition of the 2 anti-military parties, Move Forward and Pheu Thai, the party associated with Thaksin Shinawatra (still living in exile). Move Forward won the most seats (152-- including every seat in Bangkok but one!), followed by Phew Thai (141). I’m guessing that the new prime minister will be former tech executive Pita Limjaroenrat of Move Forward (unless the Senate, appointed by the military, blocks it). The government parties, Bhumjithai, Palang Pracharath and Democrat lost 19, 76 and 28 seats respectively. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha new party (UTN) wound up with 36 seats. Pita is 42, earned graduate degrees at both Harvard and MIT and headed Grab, Thailand’s version of Uber, before being elected to Parliament in 2018.
BREAKING: On Monday, Pita announced a coalition government with 309 seats and with himself as prime minister
In Turkey, the results are less clear except for one thing— there will be a run off between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and left-leaning reformist Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, head of the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). With 91.3% of the vote counted, Erdoğan had 49.25% of the vote and Kılıçdaroğlu had 45.05%. The third contender, ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan, who is allied with Erdoğan is at 5.29%. The runoff will be May 28.
Erdoğan's party reached 49.38% of the parliamentary vote with Kılıçdaroğlu's 6-party coalition reaching 35.16%, not counting the Kurdish-Green-Socialist parties. It's the worst Erdoğan's party has done since in 2 decades.
A few days ago, CNN reported that “Most of the provinces struck by the February earthquake were strongholds of Erdogan and his AK Party. But Supreme Election Council (YSK) chief Ahmet Yener said last month that at least 1 million voters in quake-stricken zones are expected not to vote this year amid displacement.
Reacting to Ince’s withdrawal from the race, Kılıçdaroğlu on Friday accused Russia of interfering in the election campaign.
“Dear Russian friends, you are behind the montages, conspiracies, deep fake content and tapes that were exposed in this country yesterday,” he said on Twitter. “If you want the continuation of our friendship after May 15, get your hands off the Turkish state. We are still in favor of cooperation and friendship.”
The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, rejected the accusation in a briefing, calling those who spread such rumors “liars.”
“Russia does not interfere in the internal affairs and electoral processes of other countries,” Peskov said. “We place great value on our bilateral relations with the Turkish side, because the Republic of Turkey has so far taken a very responsible sovereign and well-thought-out position on a whole range of regional and global problems that we are facing.”
Turkey, a NATO member that has the alliance’s second-largest army, has strengthened its ties with Russia in recent years. In 2019, it even bought weapons from the country in defiance of the US.
Erdoğan has raised eyebrows in the West by continuing to maintain close ties with Russia as it continues its Ukraine onslaught, and has caused a headache for NATO’s expansion plans by stalling the membership of Finland and Sweden.
When the US Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake paid a visit in March to Kılıçdaroğlu, Erdogan lashed out against him, calling the US diplomat’s visit a “shame,” and warning that Turkey needs to “teach the US a lesson in this election.”
Analysts have said that even if Erdoğan is ousted in the polls, a foreign policy u-turn for Turkey is not a given. While figures close to the opposition have indicated that if victorious, it would reorient Turkey back to the West, others say core foreign policy issues are likely to remain unchanged.
Turkey has, however, also been useful to its Western allies under Erdoğan. Last year Ankara helped mediate a landmark grains export deal between Ukraine and Russia, and even provided Ukraine with drones that played a part in countering Russian attacks.
High in voters’ list of concerns is the state of the economy and the damage caused by the earthquake. Even before the February disaster, Turkey was struggling with rising prices and a currency crisis that in October saw inflation hit 85%.
That impacted the purchasing power of the public and is “fundamentally the reason why Erdoğan’s popularity has been eroded,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and chairman of Istanbul-based think-tank EDAM. “That is going to be the major handicap for Erdoğan,” he said.
Voters are also casting their ballots based on whom they see as more capable of managing the fallout from the earthquake, as well as shielding the country from future disasters, analysts say, adding that Erdoğan’s popularity had not taken the expected political impact.
“There is a debate about which electoral platform provides the right solution to address these vulnerabilities and enhance Turkey’s resilience to these national disasters,” Ulgen said.
Apart from the economy and the government’s management of Turkey’s frequent natural disasters, voters are likely concerned with High in voters’ list of concerns is the state of the economy and the damage caused by the earthquake. Even before the February disaster, Turkey was struggling with rising prices and a currency crisis that in October saw inflation hit 85%.
That impacted the purchasing power of the public and is “fundamentally the reason why Erdoğan’s popularity has been eroded,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and chairman of Istanbul-based think-tank EDAM. “That is going to be the major handicap for Erdogan,” he said.
Voters are also casting their ballots based on whom they see as more capable of managing the fallout from the earthquake, as well as shielding the country from future disasters, analysts say, adding that Erdogan’s popularity had not taken the expected political impact.
“There is a debate about which electoral platform provides the right solution to address these vulnerabilities and enhance Turkey’s resilience to these national disasters,” Ulgen said.
Apart from the economy and the government’s management of Turkey’s frequent natural disasters, voters are likely concerned with Erdoğan’s turn away from democracy— something the opposition has campaigned to reverse.
Some analysts say that if Erdoğan loses the vote by a small margin, it opens up the possibility for him to contest the results.
And if past experience is a gauge, then the president and his AK Party may not take a defeat lying down.
During the 2019 Istanbul and Ankara mayoral election, the AK Party lost control of the country’s financial hub and capital, prompting party officials from both cities to reject the results, citing voter irregularities.
The CHP’s lead in Istanbul was a particularly narrow one, and eventually led to the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) ruling in favor of a re-run that the opposition strongly objected to.
CHP Istanbul mayor candidate Ekrem Imamoglu then went on to win the election re-run, dealing a blow to Erdoğan.
Ulgen cast doubt on the YSK’s independence, saying it may give in to potential demands for a recount. The body will be the ultimate arbiter of the race, he said.
A 2023 report by Freedom House said that the judges of the YSK, who oversee all voting procedures, “are appointed by AKP-dominated judicial bodies and often defer to the AKP in their decisions.” The AK Party’s “institutional dominance” in the media and other branches of society also “tilts the electoral playing field” in Erdoğan’s favor, the Washington DC-based advocacy group said.
Also… the fascist in India, Narendra Modi, was dealt a stinging blow over the weekend, as the Congress Party swept state elections in Karnataka. If this election really was a bellwether, Modi is in for a rough time in next year’s general election. His party has held power in Karnataka-- Bharatiya Janata Party’s only stronghold in southern India-- since 2018. Modi personally campaigned there over and over and this loss is being looked at as a rejection of him, his party’s corruption and his far right policies. The election saw a voter turnout of 73.19%, the highest ever recorded in the history of Assembly elections in the state.
Congress won 16,789,272 votes (42.88%) to BJP’s 14,096,529 (36.00%). Congress took 135 seats (an increase of 55), while Modi’s party lost 38, for a new total of 66. The only place the BJP did well was in the state capital, Bangalore (India’s Silicon Valley), where it won 16 seats to Congress’ 12.
As long as we’re talking about foreign places, the Kentucky gubernatorial primary is tomorrow. A final Emerson/Fox poll shows Trump-endorsed Daniel Cameron, the current Attorney General, leading with 33% (up from 30% last month), followed by another MAGAt, Kelly Craft at 17.6% (down from 24%), who pledged to eliminate transgender children from public schools. Agricultural Commissioner Ryan Quarles, more like a mainstream conservative trails with 13.2% (down from 15%), and Eric Deters is at 9.7%.
Kentucky Republicans are collectively insane and shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near polling stations. 79% say Biden’s 2020 victory was not legitimate and when thinking about 2024, 59% say voter fraud is the top threat.