They Don't Get To Pick The Nominee
A new poll from Marist for NPR shows that most Americans think that the investigations into Trump are fair and that an even more overwhelming majority of Americans know he did something wrong. (Predictably, most Republicans think the investigations are a witch hunt— although even among Republicans, 10% know he’s a criminal and another 43% believed he engaged in unethical behavior.) And the good news: 61% of Americans don’t want to see him in the White House again (including 64% of independents and 21% of Republicans). And a poll released today by Quinnipiac shows that by a margin of 57-38% most Americans think criminal charges should disqualify Trump from running for president again, including 55% of independents-- and even 23% of Republicans.
At the same time, people aren’t exactly thrilled with Biden— and his turn towards the right is just souring Democrats further, especially younger voters. Yesterday, Branko Marcetic noted that “After two years of touting his presidency as progressive and transformational, Joe Biden appears to be returning to form and moving rightward. It’s not only the wrong thing to do— according to the latest polls, it also isn’t winning voters over to him.” If he and Trump are the 2024 nominees, voter turnout will probably tank and those who do vote will be solely motivated by a classic lesser of two evils contest. Biden is confident he can win that one. But so is Trump.
This morning, Maeve Reston and Michael Scherer reported that GOP donors are worried that DeSantis is a dud and are open to other Trump challengers. In the new MAGA Movement GOP, though, do these traditional establishment financiers have the clout in takes to decide who the nominee will be? They had a big confab in Georgia and neither Trump nor DeSantis were there. Instead they heard from a bunch of hack politicians Republican voters are not in the slightest bit interested in: Chris Sununu, Mike Pence, Glenn Youngkin and Chris Christie. This morning, Quinnipiac released its latest horse race poll on the GOP nomination. They gave Republican voters a choice.GOP donors can't do much about this:
Señor Trumpanzee- 47%
Meatball Ron DeSantis- 33%
Nikki Haley- 4%
Mike Pence- 5%
Mike Pompeo- 1%
Glenn Youngkin- 1%
Tim Scott- 1%
Ted Cruz- 2%
Chris Sununu- 1%
Kristi Noem- 2%
Așa Hutchinson- 0%
Chris Christie- 1%
Liz Cheney- 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy- 1%
Reston and Scherer wrote that “Christie captured the crowd’s attention at the American Enterprise Institute-sponsored summit by offering the bluntest pitch of all. He compared former president Trump to a member of the living dead, saying that a stake would have to be driven through his heart or he would keep coming back like a vampire, according to three people in the audience, a comment that stirred debate in the crowd about whether he was best-suited to take on Trump. The pronouncement underlined the jockeying to be an alternative to the two leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, who have each stoked some anxieties in the party in recent months. While Trump leads in polls of the primary, many GOP voters have expressed fatigue with his combative tactics and grievances, as well as desire for fresh leadership, even if they still admire the former president. The alternate who has gained the most traction by far is DeSantis, who has emerged as the only significant threat in the polls to Trump, even before he has officially entered the race.”
Among the donor class and political insiders, “the desire for a backup option has intensified amid questions about how the Florida governor would fare in a protracted battle against Trump and how he can distinguish himself from the former president without alienating Trump’s supporters. There is also lingering concern about how DeSantis’s insular style will wear on early state voters who expect to welcome candidates into their living rooms for an extended job interview… With an eye on DeSantis’s vulnerabilities, many donors have kept the door open to other potential White House contenders. One lesson that sticks with many benefactors who helped Jeb Bush raise more than $100 million by July of 2015 only to see the former Florida governor falter is that Trump’s ability to torpedo his rivals— as he is now trying to do with DeSantis— necessitates a backup plan… Some donors looking to move on from Trump have expressed disappointment that Youngkin has not made moves toward running. Donors are also curious about Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who won reelection last year despite Trump’s opposition in the primary, and Sununu, who will travel to Southern California later this week to meet with potential backers as he explores whether there is a path for him to win.
[S]ome unaligned donors have been underwhelmed in recent meetings with DeSantis. A donor who attended a recent event with the Florida Governor said DeSantis “just kind of sticks to himself and does his own thing,” raising concerns that he will not be able to fully win over top-tier donors who like to feel like they are a part of the campaign. The concern has been magnified by an emerging DeSantis campaign strategy that places much of the traditional campaign operations inside an independent group, called Never Back Down, which will not be able to coordinate closely with the candidate.
…With the lessons of Trump’s dominance in the 2016 nomination contest still fresh, another longtime GOP donor noted that while there is a “strong measure of support” for DeSantis among potential financial backers who don’t support Trump, there is also an interest in watching how he fares as a candidate before committing.
…Republican operatives and donors acknowledged the difficult position that DeSantis faces as he experiments with how to deal with Trump’s slashing attacks — moving from largely ignoring or laughing off the 45th president’s attacks to taking him more directly over the pandemic and other topics.
But one operative questioned the wisdom of DeSantis’s “half-stepping” his way into the presidential arena through his national book tour, instead of making it clear to GOP voters that he was going to stay focused on the business of the Florida legislature and announce his decision when they adjourn.
Bill Palatucci, a Republican National Committeeman from New Jersey and Christie confidant, described DeSantis’s standing with both the Republican voter base and with donors as “still really good,” but added “they want to see more.”
Meanwhile GOP donor class fave, Mitt Romney faces censure from his home state Republican Party tomorrow This morning, Bryan Schott reported that “Republican angst over Sen. Mitt Romney’s perceived apostasy toward the GOP, particularly against Trump, lives on in southeastern Utah. On Thursday, delegates to the Emery County Republican Party Convention will debate and vote on a resolution to censure Romney. The censure resolution on Thursday evening’s agenda levels several harsh criticisms of Romney. It accuses him of giving ‘aid and comfort to the Democratic party’ for voting to convict Trump during his first impeachment trial. Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for abuse of power and obstructing Congress as part of a scheme to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to announce an investigation into Joe Biden. The resolution says the impeachment of Trump relied on ‘false charges… Senator Romney helped the Democrat Party elect an incompetent, radical democrat who has done irreparable damage to the United States,’ the resolution reads… The proposed Emery County censure encourages Republicans in Utah to ‘support conservative candidates opposed to’ Romney, who has not yet announced whether he’ll run for a second term in 2024.”