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The Election Thread, Episode 1

"Ceremonial Democracy" by Nancy Ohanian

Some states with consequential races that close their polls early today include races that may give us a hint about what to expect as the night wears on. By 7 ET polls will be closed in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont. There are a couple of scenarios that could be meaningful. If Annette Taddeo beats pointless GOP incumbent Maria Salazar in FL-27 (Miami), there will be a Democratic wave across the country. If Jennifer-Ruth Green beats Democratic incumbent in northwest Indiana (IN-01), a real red wave has begun. If Elaine Luria fends off a challenge from Republican Jen Kiggans in southeast Virginia (VA-02), the Republicans will probably do worse than anyone is predicting. If Trumpist loon Yesli Vega beats Elaine Spanberger, it will mean there is a GOP wave in progress and that there will be yet another Blue Dog apocalypse.

Half an hour later, North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia close. If Cheri Beasley beats Ted Budd for the open North Carolina Senate seat, Trump will probably not be running for president again. If J.D. Vance also loses, the red wave turned blue and the Democrats won’t just keep their Senate majority, they will expand it. Also in Ohio, if Republican Steve Chabot loses his Cincinnati seat (OH-01) and if Emilia Sykes beats Trumpist fanatic Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (OH-13, Ryan’s redder old seat), there’s a real blue wave happening. If ne-Nazi J.R.Majewski ousts Marcy Kaptur in northwest Ohio (OH-9), the GOP will be looking at a majority that could be over 2 dozen House seats. And back to North Carolina for a second. If Wiley Nickel beats Madison Cawthorn recruit Bo Hines in the new district (NC-13), the red wave falls flat.

We should have a pretty good idea about the shape of the election by 8 when over 20 states (and parts of states) all close, including Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Texas. Indications that there’s a red wave:

  • Democratic incumbent Jahana Hayes loses to George Logan (CT-05)

  • Democrat Eric Sorensen loses to Republican Esther Joy King (IL-17)

  • Republican Keith Pekau ousts Democratic incumbent Sean Casten (IL-06)

  • Republican Amanda Adkins ousts Democratic incumbent Sharice Davids (KS-03)

  • Bruce Poliquin (R) beats incumbent Jared Golden (ME-02) in their rematch

  • Dan Cox wins the Maryland gubernatorial race-- which means the GOP wins everything from sea to shining sea

  • Democratic incumbent and self-funder David Trone is ousted by neo-Nazi Neil Parrott (MD-06)

  • Trumpist nut John Gibbs beats Blue Dog Hillary Scholten in newly blue district (MI-03)

  • Crazy Trumpist Don Bolduc ousts worthless Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan

  • Trump fanatic Karoline Leavitt ousts Chris Pappas (NH-01)

  • Andy Kim loses to right-wing punk rocker Bob Healey (NJ-03)

  • Mehmet Oz wins the Pennsylvania Senate seat

  • Sleazy GOP lobbyist Jim Bognet ousts Democrat Matt Cartwright (PA-08)

  • Mike Doyle beats Summer Lee in Pittsburgh (PA-12)

And these are some possible early indications that there’s an actual Democratic wave:

  • Tom Malinowski beats heavily favored Tom Kean in a newly red NJ seat (NJ-07)

  • Democratic incumbent Susan Wild hangs on against Republican Lisa Scheller in a red suburban seat (PA-07)

  • Pennsylvania Democrats John Fetterman, Susan Wild, Matt Cartwright, Chris Deluzio and Summer Lee all win

  • All 3 South Texas competitive races (TX-15, TX-28, TX-34) are won by Democrats Michelle Vallejo, Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez

If pretend Democrat Joy Hoffmeister ousts right-wing Republican Kevin Stitt it doesn’t portend much of anything other than perhaps a night of hilarious surprises.

And here are some import ballot propositions, courtesy of Patriotic Millionaires that aren’t about abortion or marijuana

  • Massachusetts Question 1 – if passed, would institute an additional 4% tax on incomes over $1 million and will use the revenue raised for education and transportation purposes.

  • California Proposition 30 – if passed, would institute an additional 1.75% tax on incomes over $2 million and will use the revenue raised to subsidize efforts to combat climate change.

  • Colorado Proposition 121 – if passed, would make the state’s tax code more regressive by reducing both the state income and corporate tax rates to 4.4%. Sadly, but unsurprisingly, Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat and a multi-millionaire, supports this tax break for rich Coloradans like him.

  • Washington, D.C. Initiative 82 – if passed, would eliminate the tipped minimum wage, gradually increasing it to match the non-tipped minimum wage by 2027. This will bring DC in line with 7 states that already have One Fair Wage. Shout out to our partners at One Fair Wage for their work on this initiative.

  • Nebraska Initiative 433 – if passed, would incrementally increase the state minimum wage from $9 an hour to $15 an hour by 2026, at which point it would increase along with inflation.

  • Nevada Question 2 – if passed, would increase the minimum wage to $12 an hour by 2024.

  • Portland, ME Question D – if passed, would increase the minimum wage to $18 an hour over three years and eliminate the sub-minimum tipped wage. It would also eliminate the tip credit for service workers and reclassify ride-share and delivery drivers as employees.

This is an actual text I got from a friend in L.A. today: "Rick Caruso would have won but heavy rain when people leaving work and they won't be able to make it to polling places. Poor Rick. He was going to throw these meth zombies over the cliff."

Last night— unable to keep from inserting himself into the election— Trump sat down with Fox News for an interview on his super-polluting private jet, “Trump Force One.” Takeaways:

  • If he manages to get back into the White House, he won’t be bringing any establishment types with him, whose called RINOs

  • He plans to “seal up the border”

  • He demands McConnell be replaced as Republican Senate leader. “People are very upset with Mitch McConnell— I’ll tell you who is upset with him— the public… I think Rick Scott is a likely candidate— he hates the guy… McConnell has been very bad for our nation. He has been very bad for the Republican Party. I would be in favor of somebody else— McConnell has done a very bad job.”

  • On Ron DeSanctimonious, he said that if he runs "I think he would be making a mistake. I think the base would not like it... I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering— I know more about him than anybody— other than, perhaps, his wife, who is really running his campaign.”

That sounds like a threat to me-- and as though he had DeSantis under surveillance.

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