Team Red is Just One Seat Away From A Shaky Majority
How desperate is McCarthy for enough votes to make him speaker? The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that “Allies of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy made multiple calls to Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas over the weekend and asked him if he would switch parties to expand the GOP majority. The pitch to Cuellar came as McCarthy struggles to reach the 218-vote threshold needed on the House floor to secure the speakership if his party wins a narrow majority. One person said Cuellar, who sits on the powerful appropriations committee, was offered committee positions and asked what it would take for him to switch. Cuellar turned them down.”
McCarthy says none of this happened and it’s all fiction. But McCarthy is flipping out over Matt Gaetz podcasting this rather definitive statement: “I’m not voting for Kevin McCarthy. I’m not voting for him tomorrow. I’m not voting for him on the floor. And I am certain that there is a critical mass of people who hold my precise view. And so the sooner we can sort of dispense with the notion that Kevin is going to be speaker, then we can get to the important work.”
Cuellar, a reactionary, anti-Choice Blue Dog, is one of the most Republican-voting of the House Democrats. He was George W. Bush’s favorite Democrat when Bush was Texas governor and Cuellar was in the state legislature. This cycle he was a major GOP target and McCarthy’s SuperPAC spent $4,974,436 smearing him and dragging him through the mud. The NRCC spent another $3,014,985 against him. Pelosi’s SuperPAC spent $4,861,918 and the DCCC spent $3,279,205 rescuing Cuellar. He beat Republican Cassy Garcia and it wasn’t even that close:
So… these are the uncalled seats-- along with my predictions:
ME-02- Jared Golden (D) is 3 points ahead and he’ll win in the ranked choice process
NY-22- Brandon Williams (R) is 2 points ahead and he’ll win [UPDATE: Called last night for Williams]
CO-08- Yadira Caraveo (D) is ahead by 0.7 and she’ll win
CO-03- Crackpot QAnon nutcase Lauren Boebert (R) faces a recount but will probably win
AZ-01- David Schweikert (R) is ahead by 0.2 but is likely to win [UPDATE: Called last night for Schweikert]
AZ-06- Juan Ciscomani (R) is ahead by 1 point and will likely win [UPDATE: Called last night for Ciscomani]
OR-06- Andrea Salinas (D) is ahead by 2 points and will probably win
Ak-at- Mary Peltola is ahead and will likely win in the ranked choice process
CA-03- Kevin Kiley (R) is ahead by 3 and will win
CA-06- Crook Ami Bera (D) is ahead by 12 and will definitely win
CA-09 Josh Harder (D) is ahead by 12 and will definitely win
CA-13- John Duarte (R) is ahead by 0.2 but Democrat Adam Gray is likely to win
CA-21- Jim Costa (D) is ahead by 10 and will surely win
CA-22- David Valadao (R) is ahead by 6 and will likely win
CA-27- Mike Garcia (R) is ahead by 8 and will surely win
CA-34- Dem vs Dem race, but Jimmy Gomez is likely to win
CA-41- Ken Calvert (R) is ahead by 2 and is likely to win [UPDATE: Called last night for Calvert]
CA-45- Michelle Steel (R) is ahead by 8 and is likely to win [UPDATE: Called last night for Steel]
CA-47- Katie Porter (D) is ahead by 1.2 and is likely to win
CA-49- Mike Levin (D) is ahead by 4 and will surely win