Both CA-13 Candidates Are Putrid
CA-13 came into existence after the 2020 census in time for the 2022 midterms. There was no incumbent in the Central Valley district that was drawn with a D+4 PVI and a D+7 partisan lean. It should have been an easy win for the Democrats— except for one problem: candidate quality. The Democrats ran Assemblyman Adam Gray, one of the worst legislators in Sacramento, very conservative and, worse, very corrupt. He has already joined the Blue Dogs.
Many voters in the district were aware of his shortcomings and just stayed home. The Republican, a crooked farmer named John Duarte, who had been fined $2.8 million for violating the Clean Water Act, won an upset victory by 564 votes and wasn’t declared the winner until December 3. Both candidates raised and spent around the same amount of money but outside money for Gray ($8 million) was slightly more than for Duarte ($7.5 million). The DCCC and House Majority PAC spent $6,628,853.
The conservatism and corruption is exactly what the DCCC always looks for in candidates so they backed Gray again this cycle. This time though, Gray outspent Duarte, $4.6 million to $3.2 million. Outside money, again, favored Gray— $14 million to $10.6 million. This time the DCCC and House Majority PAC spent $12,313,276. Again, this will be the last seat filled in the House. Until last week, Duarte was leading fractionally and then more ballots were counted and now Gray is leading by 0.09%! Gray is ahead in Merced, Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties and Duarte is besting him in Madera and Fresno counties.
Duarte goes out of his way to claim he’s bipartisan— but he sticks with the GOP overwhelmingly, including on most of their toxic bills. He has the 201st most “bipartisan” voting record. Among California Republican members, Young Kim, Jay Obernolte, David Valadao, Michelle Steel, Doug LaMalfa, Mike Garcia and Darrell Issa have more bipartisan records. In fact, the only less bipartisan GOP members in California are Kevin Kiley, Ken Calvert and Tom McClintock.
If Gray wins, the “scorecard” will be 220 Republicans to 215 Republicans, but Matt Gaetz has already resigned so that’s 219-215. Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz are joining the Trumpanzee regime so that leaves 217-215 until special elections, April Fool’s Day in Florida and… when Gov. Hochul decides in New York, but probably not sooner. Say the Democrats all stick together—and we’ll get to that assumption in a moment-- on one of Trump’s and Project 2025 awful agenda items. It isn’t that much of a stretch to imagine that Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) opposes it. If everyone is there that day, it’s a tie and there is no vice president to break it— it doesn’t pass. Fitzpatrick is the most likely to vote against the GOP position. But not far behind are Mike Lawler (NY), Don Bacon (NE), Zach Nunn (IA) and Maria Salazar (FL).
But, the problem comes to “if” the Democrats all stick together. Plenty of Democrats very much like Adam Gray tend not to. North Carolina Blue Dog Don Davis was one step away from being a Republican in the state legislature. No, in Congress, he rarely misses an opportunity to vote with the GOP. New Jersey Blue Dog Josh Gottheimer is another one. Ditto Henry Cuellar (TX). So are Blue Dog co-chairs Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA) and Jared Golden (ME). There are also a handful of New Dems who are just as bad— Chris Pappas (NH), Susie Lee (NV), Jimmy Panetta (CA)… Gray will fit right into this circle. Add in a lobbyist and… it wouldn’t matter at all if it was Duarte or Gray voting.
And there’s more— something Duarte could never do— influence Democratic Party positions. Party leaders, in crafting those positions, including legislation, will always have to take people like Gray into account. Want to make sure Gray even considers voting with the party? Take out this and this and this and put in these “business-friendly” positions.
So, even if you want to see the Democratic minority one seat bigger, don’t root too hard for Adam Gray without being prepared for being really pissed off once he starts voting. If his behavior in Sacramento is any indiction of what his behavior in Washington will be… well, he could very well be the worst Democrat in Congress or if not, surely one of the worst 5 or 6.
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