The GOP's Own Polling Shows Them Losing Around Two Dozen Seats In The House Next Year

These 17 Republican Reps Look Dead In The Water Already

Progressive Mark Pinsley and reactionary Ryan Mackenzie

Republican polling firm FabrizioWard just completed a poll of the most 28 competitive congressional districts for 2026. They found that “While the 2024 outcome for these districts was even, the generic Republican is down 3-points among all registered voters. Among those most motivated to vote, an early indication of vote likelihood in the midterms, the Republican is down 7-points.”  

If nothing changes between now and Election Day— and that isn’t likely to be the case— that kind of polling would likely mean curtains for around 2 dozen Republican incumbents. Among the already dead-in-the-water: Mariannette Miller Meeks (Iowa), Gabe Evans (CO), Ryan Mackenzie (PA), Scott Perry (PA), Rob Bresnahan (PA), the open Omaha seat (NE), Nick Begich (AK), Juan Ciscomani (AZ), Derrick Van Orden (WI), Ken Calvert (CA), Tom Barrett (MI), David Schweikert (AZ), Zach Nunn (IA), Jen Kiggans (VA), Jeff Hurd (CO), Tom Kean (NJ), John James (MI), Mike Lawler (NY)

They did the poll for Plymouth Union Public Advocacy, Republican lobbyists, presumably working for an insurance company eager for information about “premium tax credits,” which is most of what the polling was about. FabrizioWard wrote that “If the Republican candidate lets the premium tax credit expire, the Republican trails the Democrat by 15-points. There is broad bi-partisan support for the tax credit and their extension. Unlike recent changes to Medicaid which do not go into effect until after the midterm elections, voters on the individual insurance marketplace, who voted for Trump by 4-points, will begin getting notices of significant premium hikes this fall. The incentive is to act on extending the tax credit soon. Republicans can position themselves ahead of Democrats in these districts by extending the premium tax credit and using the individual market as a landing spot for working-age adults on Medicaid. The Republican candidate that supports that policy would lead the Democrat on the generic ballot by 6-points overall, and among those most motivated to vote by 4-points, completely changing the political dynamic to the Republican’s favor.” This is exactly what the lobbyists wanted to hear and I would take the finding with a grain of salt— or a lump of salt.

They added that “the 28 congressional districts surveyed include fifteen where the Republican won in 2024 by a margin of 5% or less and thirteen won by both the Democrat and President Trump. In aggregate, the congressional vote was tied and President Trump won these districts by 4 points. It will be these districts that decide control of the House after the midterm election. Currently, among all registered voters the generic Republican is trailing the generic Democrat by three points. Among the 65% of voters who rate themselves 10-out-of-10 motivated to vote, an early indication of who could turn out next year, the Republican trails by 7-points.”

As we said, one Republican very likely to lose his seat next year is freshman and Trump lackey Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley (PA-07). Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley is likely to run against him. Yesterday, told us that “Mackenzie has consistently sided with special interests over working families in our district. If he suddenly changes course on health insurance premiums, it won’t be because he’s seen the light. It’ll be because he sees the polling. Voters here aren’t looking for last-minute conversions. They’re looking for someone who was with them from the start. Folks around here know the difference between a change of heart and a fear of losing power.”

Eric Descheenie is Eli Crane’s Democratic opponent this cycle. And where Crane is an over-the-top extremist and Trump boot-licker, Eric is a grassroots progressive with roots in the community. This morning, he told us that “While Republicans like Eli Crane ‘make their bed and lie in it’ with voters, we will continue to press forward with Universal Healthcare as a viable and necessary solution for our communities. You can’t put a price tag on peace of mind, and the good people of my district and across the nation know it well.” 

The DCCC is ignoring Suffolk County Trump ally Nick LaLota, so his 2026 opponent, Lukas Ventouras, is going after him hard. “Nick LaLota,” he told us this afternoon, “must enjoy being publicly humiliated, particularly when it comes to all his empty campaign promises being shattered into smithereens by his donors. To be clear, he never promised anything tangible, other than the SALT deduction, but what he was able to promise was that he is a working class champion, and a friend of Main Street. He constantly lampooned John Avlon for being a corporate stooge, (which he is), but conveniently neglected to disclose that he and the CNN has-been shared the same donors, and advocated for policies which would allow the same billionaires to run amok in our government. His mockery of the establishment Dem should absolutely be taken with a grain of salt, specifically  considering how every bill he has voted on in the 119th Congress has disenfranchised the same people he purports to support. About 1/3 of Suffolk county resident households fall below the set income threshold needed to live and work, making them, in the context of Long Island's absurd cost of living crisis, effectively living on or below the poverty line.

“To LaLota however, it doesn't matter one bit. While he’s busy refusing to host a town hall or face his constituents, he rakes in tons of money by way of Wall Street goons, and corrupt defense contractors. His vote to dismantle the premium tax credit, is yet another slap in the face to the blue collar, hard working base that put him in office 2 times. In the wake of dismantling our healthcare system, stripping 17 million Americans of their healthcare, another 40 million being stripped of access to hospitals and clinics, coupled with over 400 hospitals facing closure nationwide, LaLota's gift to Suffolk's working class is to further ensure that they need to ration medication skip meals, and neglect to seek treatment that will cost a fortune. 

“LaLota has now voted for, or supported fully, the cutting of Pediatric Cancer research, the cutting of healthcare benefits and staffing positions for his fellow veterans at the VA, has voted to dismantled Obamacare, Medicaid, and Social Security, has gutted the National Weather service, and FEMA, leading to the deaths of many precious young lives, dismantled any last ditch attempts we had at saving our planet and climate, and cut taxes for the billionaires while exploding our deficit, to name a few. In the richest country the world has ever seen, Suffolk county should not be subsidizing the yachts and private villas for Lalota's donors. We demand a government by and FOR the people, and when we knock LaLota out in November of 2026, we will be that much closer.”