The GOP/MAGA Economic Agenda Only Leads In One Direction: Pain, Suffering And A Deep, Dark Recession

Killing Medicaid + Trump Tariffs = Economic Disaster

Trump wants congressional Republicans to take the fall for cutting Medicaid. And plenty of them— especially in the House— are frothing at the mouth to cut as deeply as they can. MAGA Mike “has been scrambling to secure Trump’s support, shuttling up and down Pennsylvania Avenue and calling him multiple times a day to ensure they remain in lockstep and avoid a repeat of the GOP divisions that doomed the president’s 2017 push to repeal the Affordable Care Act. But divisions abound: While moderates continue raising concerns about rolling back Medicaid expansion, fiscal hawks [like Chip Roy, Andrew Clyde and Andy Harris] have been angling for even steeper cuts to the program.”

Yesterday, a trio of Politico reporters wrote that “The fate of Republicans’ sweeping domestic policy bill is snagged on a crucial question: Are deep cuts to Medicaid, the federal health care program covering nearly 80 million Americans, something to be avoided? Or are they the whole point of pursuing the legislation?… If Republicans follow through, 10 million Americans or more could lose their health coverage… Not only is Trump wary of sparking a broader political backlash— akin to what he saw after attempting to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017— there is a cadre of congressional Republicans who are threatening to vote against the whole sprawling bill if the cuts go too deep. But there is also an aggressive corps of hard-right lawmakers who are insisting on deep cuts— especially to the 2010 expansion of the Medicaid program under the Affordable Care Act. On Thursday, several were openly threatening to revolt if top leaders don’t follow through with cuts.”

The neo-fascist wing that wants to wreck Medicaid entirely— the Freedom Caucus and their extremist allies are counting on MAGA Mike and Señor Trumpanzee “to stand firm on slashing Medicaid. Polling on the Medicaid cuts is positively deadly for Republicans, something Trump seems far more concerned about than the radical right members of Congress are.

KFF found that “There is partisan agreement when it comes to funding cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security with more than nine in ten Democrats, eight in ten independents and more than half of Republicans opposing federal funding cuts to each of the three government programs. In addition, majorities across partisanship oppose funding cuts to states for mental health and addiction prevention services and for tracking infectious disease outbreaks. Another seven in ten oppose cuts to federal funding for research at universities and medical centers, including nine in ten (92%) Democrats, seven in ten (69%) independents, and almost half (44%) of Republicans. Overall, two-thirds (65%) oppose cutting funding to help people who purchase health coverage through the ACA to pay their premiums (65%), but about six in ten Republicans support major cuts in this area… Most of the public (61%) oppose major cuts to staff and spending at federal health agencies, while two in five (38%) support such cuts.”

Over half the public say cuts to staff and spending at federal government health agencies go too far and just 31%— basically the MAGA base— think the cuts are “about right” while 14% say the cuts haven’t gone far enough. “In addition to believing the cuts have gone too far, the public expresses generally negative views about the manner in which the administration has approached these cuts. Asked which comes closer to their view, six in ten (59%) say ‘the administration is recklessly making broad cuts to programs and staff, including some that are necessary for agencies to function…’ Large majorities of both Democrats (92%) and independents (65%) say the cuts have been reckless, while this view is shared by only one in five Republicans (18%)… Notably, four in ten non-MAGA Republicans (42%) say the cuts have been reckless.”

But even majorities of Republicans say they oppose major cuts to funding for Social Security (73%), Medicare (64%), and Medicaid (55%). Additionally, a majority of Republicans (58%) oppose cuts to funding to states for mental health and addiction prevention services.

In the minds of many voters this is related to the fact that Trump’s recession is already upon is. Yesterday, Timothy Noah showed how it has already begun in Seattle, America’s 5th busiest post after Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York–New Jersey and Savannah. Container ship traffic has come to a halt. “This,” wrote Noah, “is how the recession begins. In Seattle, cargo shipments are down 60 percent. Los Angeles will be next… The recession will make its way east from Seattle and Los Angeles as trucks and freight trains carry less cargo overland. The port of New York–New Jersey, which is less reliant on China, is doing pretty well for now, which is good because transportation, warehousing, and storage account for more than 17 percent of all jobs in the Garden State.”

A recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that gross domestic product shrank 0.3 percent in the first quarter. Ordinarily, one might legitimately question whether a new president should be held responsible for the economy’s performance during his first two and a half months in office. But Trump broadcast his intention to slap tariffs on everything that moves before and after the election, and he just completed a very busy first 100 days.

Also, look at the difference with the last quarter of 2024, when GDP grew 2.4 percent under the president Trump sneeringly calls “Sleepy Joe Biden.” If 2.4 percent growth is sleeping and negative growth is waking, pass me another pillow. The Wall Street Journal’s Harriet Torry states bluntly: “The main driver of the first-quarter contraction was Trump’s trade war.” I agree. When the numbers make this recession official, I fully expect Trump to call this the China Recession. But China isn’t our president. It will be the Trump Recession. Let’s hope he doesn’t turn it into a Trump Depression.