The Whole Party Has Been Tarred By The Freedom Caucus & QAnon
According to the DCCC right now there are 31 Republican-held districts more or less in play. These are the districts— along with the percentage the incumbent won by in 2022:
MI-10- John James- 48.8%
MT-01- Ryan Zinke- 49.6%
CO-03- Lauren Boebert- 50.08
CA-13- John Duarte- 50.2%
NY-17- Mike Lawler- 50.3%
IA-03- Zach Nunn- 50.35%
AZ-01- David Schweikert- 50.4
NY-22- Brandon Williams- 50.5%
AZ-06- Juan Ciscomani- 50.7%
NY-19- Marc Molinaro- 50.8%
OR-05- Lori Chavez-DeRemer- 51.0%
NE-02- Don Bacon- 51.3%
NJ-07- Tom Kean- 51.4%
CA-22- David Valadao- 51.5%
VA-02- Jen Kiggans- 51.7%
NY-04- Anthony D’Esposito- 51.8%
WI-03- Derrick Van Orden- 51.9%
CA-41- Ken Calvert- 52.3
CA-45- Michelle Steel- 52.4%
FL-13- Anna Paulina Luna- 53.1%
CA-27- Mike Garcia- 53.2%
TX-15- Monica De La Cruz- 53.3%
IA-01- Mariannette Miller-Meeks- 53.4%
CA-03- Kevin Kiley- 53.6%
NY-03- George Santos- 53.8%
PA-10- Scott Perry- 53.8%
WI-01- Bryan Steil- 54.1%
PA-01- Brian Fitzpatrick- 54.9%
NY-01- Nick LaLota- 55.5%
CA-40- Young Kim- 56.8%
FL-27- Maria Salazar- 57.3%
Keep in mind that a few of these candidates— take Brian Fitzpatrick and Don Bacon— have proven themselves popular enough to withstand national trends that were bad for Republicans (including in their own districts). And also keep in mind that the Democrats are addicted to nominating and renominating unelectable candidates— take Rudy Salas in CA-22 and Adam Gray in CA-13. That all said, Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzales reported on a purloined private GOP poll that shows the generic ballot has turned drastically against the Republicans and that they are now an astounding 10 points down, primarily because of the abortion issue. Independent voters have abandoned them in droves.
The national outlook, as of late April, had shifted 6 points— from R+3 to D+3 in a year, thanks to independents and to new voters. Even better, there has been a 10 point swing in the last year on the Generic House Ballot from R+6 to D+4. The report states that "Democrats had a 40-36 percent advantage in the House generic ballot. On Election Day 2022, Republicans had a 1.2-point advantage in the national generic ballot." All things being equal-- which they never are-- if those numbers hold true, virtually all the incumbents on that list above would be defeated.
Will the debate over the debt ceiling change things? Probably not— unless the Republican extremists actually do force a default (and recession). Would they? Take a lookout this letter 35 MAGAts— including Q-Anon psychopaths like Lauren Boebert and Mary Miller— sent to McCarthy yesterday:
Michael Luciano reported that RNC chair Ronna McDaniel said the U.S. potentially defaulting on its debt would be a boon for Republicans in 2024. McDaniel joined Wednesday’s edition of The Story on Fox News, where host Martha MacCallum displayed a poll among Republican presidential contenders amid a possible U.S. default. ‘This can be anybody’s race,’ MacCallum said, noting that Donald Trump is well ahead of the field. ‘But the former president is clearly in a significant lead position right now, Ronna. What would you say to voters as they look at the numbers on the screen right now? I think it is early,’ McDaniel said. ‘We have to look at Biden’s numbers and that’s where Republicans should be paying attention to his low approval. This is not a president that the American people feel is doing a good job on their behalf.’ Beginning with the debt ceiling, McDaniel explained the country’s ills can only help Republicans.’”
“Compromise” is not in their vocabulary and they may have the clout to stop the deal Biden and McCarthy are making. “The Freedom Caucus has always insisted that it would accept nothing less than Limit, Save, Grow— even though for an eventual deal to become law, it would have to be acceptable to the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House.” The whining and bluster from the GOP’s nihilistic wing and and worries from progressives, suggest that a more mainstream conservative deal may in fact be taking shape. Ralph Norman (R-SC) and Chip Roy (R-TX) “said they heard McCarthy’s negotiators were now considering an increase of more than $3 trillion, and it wasn’t clear to them that Republicans were getting enough on work requirements or spending cuts in return.
“It’s idiotic for him— for anybody to consider anything [other] than what we have,” Norman said.
Roy said his “antenna is up” over the deal lacking “transformative, substantive fiscal reforms necessary to raise the debt ceiling $4 trillion.”
Meanwhile, conservatives in the Senate also seemed spooked about an emerging deal. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) threatened to block expedited passage of any agreement that didn’t include “substantial” spending cuts.
“I will use every procedural tool at my disposal to impede a debt-ceiling deal that doesn’t contain substantial spending and budgetary reforms,” Lee tweeted Thursday. ”I fear things are moving in that direction. If they do, that proposal will not face smooth sailing in the Senate.”
A swing district poll by Change research— districts that a Republican won by less than 5 points last year (see the district list above) reveals an increasingly frustrated and anxious electorate. If the 2024 election were held today, the results would likely yield a narrowly divided government.
Key findings from the survey include:
Voters prefer Joe Biden's message over Donald Trump's and Ron DeSantis's messages, with 50% of independents supporting Biden's freedom message over Trump's MAGA one.
A majority of voters prioritize the freedom to live safely without fear of gun violence over protecting Second Amendment rights and support common-sense gun reform measures.
Misinformation remains a significant issue, with 67% of Republicans believing that Trump received more votes than Biden in the 2020 election.
Voters are increasingly concerned about the country and its future, with 90% feeling that things are more out of control than ever before, 75% saying they are falling behind the cost of living, and 71% believing that today's children in America will grow up worse off than people are now.
Meanwhile Change Research also put out a national poll on education that also seems to bode badly for Republicans:
