I think the Democrats will expand their Senate majority by a couple of seats in November. The Republicans will be like ravenous dogs in their attempt to win the majority back two years later. I’m not trying to predict what the political landscape is going to look like in 2024. I’m just taking a look at the seats that are up that year. Questions like “will Trump and Biden be on the presidential ballot?” and “will the economy be cratering or cruising?” and the kinds of things that usually determine election results are unknowable right now. Whether or not there are daily bloody riots in front of the prison where Trump is awaiting his firing squad after being found guilty of selling nuclear secrets to China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Israel, North Korea, El Salvador and an FBI agent disguised as a plenipotentiary from the Khanate of Khiva, could make all the difference in the world. But, all things being equal, let’s just look at the map. 21 Democratic seats (+ 2 seats held by independents who caucus with the Democrats, Angus King in Maine and Bernie) are up, as are just 10 Republican seats. Of the Republicans seats, all will be declared “safe” by the pundits.
Let’s look at the Republican seats first with an eye on determining just how safe they are:
Florida- Rick Scott will run for reelection-- unless he runs for president-- and frequent candidate, conservative Democrat Charlie Crist will challenge him and lose again.
Indiana- Mike Braun will likely seek reelection and some Democrat will run against him and lose.
Mississippi- Roger Wicker will likely seek reelection and some Democrat will run against him and lose.
Missouri- Josh Hawley will seek reelection and this could be the only red seat the Dems have a legitimate shot at flipping. Huh? That’s right. Pressure has already begun to build to persuade Lucas Kunce to run against Hawley.
Nebraska- Deb Fischer will likely seek reelection and Alisha Shelton, who was just eviscerated in the NE-02 congressional primary, will run against her and lose.
North Dakota- Kevin Cramer will likely seek reelection and some Democrat— perhaps Kristin Hedger— will run against him and lose.
Tennessee- Marsha Blackburn will likely seek reelection and some Democrat will probably run against her and lose.
Texas- Ted Cruz will certainly be a target, unless he’s running for president. Either of the Castro brothers would like to take him on.
Utah- If Mitt Romney decides to run— he’d be 77— and beats whichever MAGA psychopath primaries him, he’d beat any Democrat who runs against him. If not, some other Republican will win.
Wyoming- John Barrasso will likely seek reelection and if the Democrats manage to find someone to run against him, Barrasso will win.
If Missouri (R+10 PVI) and Texas (R+5 PVI) are the only seats the Democrats even have even a shot to flip, you can imagine 2024 is going to be a year the Democrats are playing defense. These are the seats the Democrats will be defending:
Arizona- Kyrsten Sinema is a big question mark. She’s really hated by Democrats and is unlikely to survive a primary challenge. Will she decide to run as a Republican or just become a lobbyist? This seat will be a major focus for the GOP and I’m guessing Doug Ducey would run and beat her.
California- If Dianne Feinstein lasts ’til 2024— she’d be in her 91 and is already completely dysfunctional and senile— she’d be beaten in a primary. If she dies or retires there will be over a dozen plausible Democratic candidates jockeying for position, including Katie Porter, Adam Schiff, Ro Khanna, Ted Lieu, Eric Swalwell, Tony Cárdenas, Pete Aguilar, Scott Peters, Barbara Lee, Eric Garcetti…
Connecticut- Unless he runs for president, Chris Murphy will run for reelection, some Republican will run against him and Murphy will win.
Delaware- Tom Carper, who will be 77, may run for reelection and beat whichever Republican runs against him. If he retires Lisa Blunt Rochester would run for the seat.
Hawaii- Mazie Hirono, who will be 78, will probably run for reelection and beat whichever Republican runs against her.
Maine- Angus King will be 80 and may run for reelection and beat anyone who runs against him. If he retires, centrist loser Sara Gideon will be the Democratic nominee, putting the seat in jeopardy.
Maryland- Ben Cardin will also be 80 and is likely to face a tough primary unless he retires. People want to see Jamie Raskin in that seat. If Cardin runs, he’ll beat whomever the GOP finds to run against him.
Massachusetts- Elizabeth Warren has filed to run again and is in position to win against anyone. I guess things would change if she runs for president or gets picked to be on the ticket as VP.
Michigan- Debbie Stabenow has filed to run again. The Republicans will make flipping her seat a priority but it’s a long shot for them.
Minnesota- Amy Klobuchar wants to run for president but she’ll probably run for reelection and win by a very big margin.
Montana- Jon Tester will likely run again and flipping Montana will be a huge GOP priority. Last time Tester beat Matt Rosendale (now a MAGA congressman) 253,876 (50.3%) to 235,963 (46.8%). This will be a tough race.
Nevada- Jacky Rosen is a crappy senator but will likely run for reelection and face a very stiff GOP challenge. In 2018 she beat Dean Heller 490,071 (50.4%) to 441,202 (45.4%).
New Jersey- Bob Menendez is despised and there will be a lot of pressure on him to retire. He’s already filed to run but he’d like his son to take his seat; corrupt Blue Dog scumbag Josh Gottheimer also wants the seat. Presumably, the Republicans will run Tom Kean Jr, but the state is pretty blue now with a D+6 PVI.
New Mexico- Martin Heinrich will probably run again and win again.
New York- Kirsten Gillibrand will likely run for reelection and win.
Ohio- Sherrod Brown has filed for reelection but I’m sure he’d love to run for president. Ohio is very tough for Democrats but last time he kicked Republican Jim Renacci’s ass 53.4% to 46.6%. Secretary of State Frank LaRose should be almost as easy to beat.
Pennsylvania- Bob Casey slaughtered Lou Barletta in 2018— 55.7% to 42.6%. Casey is likely to hold the seat in 2024, although he’ll have a tougher opponent than Barletta, probably self-funder David McCormick who Dr. Oz just beat.
Rhode Island- Sheldon Whitehouse will probably run for reelection and win.
Vermont- Bernie will be 82 but is in good shape and will have to decide between retiring, running for another Senate term or running for president.
Virginia- Tim Kaine will likely face Glenn Youngkin so it should be a tough race.
Washington- Maria Cantwell will likely run again and win again.
West Virginia- Joe Manchin has filed to run again, but mostly so he can raise money. He’s unlikely to run for a third term and the seat will go to whichever Republican wins their primary, maybe Alex Mooney.
Wisconsin- Tammy Baldwin will run again and I’m hearing Trump-enemy Paul Ryan would like to run. It’s hard to imagine him winning a GOP primary, especially if Trump endorses another candidate.