Señor TACO’s Senate Circus: Big Ugly Lies, Big Ugly Bill, Big Ugly Betrayals...Profiles in Cowardice

The Big Ugly Vote Is A Gift To Dems in 2026, If They Don't Blow It

Trump’s Big Ugly Bill was moved forward with a 51-49 vote last night. All the Republican whiners who threatened to vote against it, voted for it with the exceptions of Rand Paul (KY) and Thom Tillis (NC). Lisa Murkowski voted yes because she got a deal exempting Alaska from a few of the worst provisions of the bill, so at least she served her constituents, while betraying the country. Flat out betraying the country by voting for a bill that had denounced for the last month were Josh Hawley (R-MO), Jim Justice (R-WV), Ron Johnson (R-WI), Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who finagled a provision to send more revenue from rum purchases to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in return for his vote, Mike Lee (R-UT), Rick Scott (R-FL), who spent much of yesterday on the links with Señor TACO and Susan Collins (R-ME). Jordan Wood, Susan Collin’s Democratic opponent in next year’s Senate election (you can help support his campaign here) said “I'm disappointed, but not surprised, that Susan Collins ‘concerns’ were empty words. At a time when we most needed her to have the courage to stand up Donald Trump and stop this bill, she failed. Her time is up and we must vote her out in 2026.” 

Trump lashed out savagely against Tillis, promising to help defeat him in a primary next year:

“Tillis — along with Collins, Hawley and others — got a big win on delaying implementation of the Medicaid provider tax changes from the House GOP bill. Senate GOP leaders also added a $25 billion stabilization fund to the package released late Friday night for these wavering Republicans. This won’t be enough for some Senate Republicans, however, and it faces an uncertain future in the House. Tillis has been saying that he worries the Medicaid provisions will hamper the Republican legislature in Raleigh. But GOP state Sen. Phil Berger, the party’s leader in the chamber, said he supports the bill and Republicans would ‘work through any implementation issues.’” Trump’s attacks on Tillis were a warning to other Republicans— in both Houses of Congress— not to dare betray him. He followed that first post with this one, for anyone who hadn’t gotten the point:

UPDATE: Tillis just announced he isn't running for reelection!

Richard Rubin and Sioban Hughes reported that Senate Republicans had released an updated version of Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’  before the vote. The new version “offers a more generous deduction for state and local taxes through 2029 than the previous Senate iteration. It gives states more time before lowering the ceiling on the so-called provider taxes used to enhance state Medicaid budgets and in turn attract federal matching funds. But it also would cut off tax credits for electric vehicles, solar and wind projects more quickly than the initial Senate version, in a blow to companies hoping their Republican senators could do more to shield them from an effort to roll back spending on EVs and renewable energy.” 

As of passage 20 hours of debate equally divided between the Republicans and Democrats was triggered. Schumer has demanded— as is his right— to force a reading of the entire nearly 1,000 page bill on the floor that will add half. Away to the process. “Then,” wrote the Punchbowl crew, “a vote-a-rama begins, with senators allowed to offer an unlimited number of amendments. Democrats will force votes on Republicans’ plans for massive Medicaid and SNAP spending cuts, tax cuts for rich Americans and other hot-button issues that they can use in next year’s elections. Republicans are also planning amendments, which could vex Thune. That includes Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s (R-TN) push to strip the AI moratorium and Collins’ attempts to force changes. Then Thune will cut off debate at some still undetermined time and move for final passage. That’s when the real drama starts. This will be the biggest moment so far for Senate Republicans during the 119th Congress, and by far Thune’s most important vote since becoming majority leader. Trump– whose legislative agenda is on the line– has been leaning in hard. He’s called and met personally with a number of senators, including Johnson… The House is eyeing a return either Monday or Tuesday– depending on when the Senate passes its bill. The plan would be for the House Rules Committee to convene on the first day back, followed by a vote the next day. We’ll see if this timeline holds.”

The House outlook: serious headwinds– although they look more performative than serious to me. Mychael Schnell reported yesterday that “at least six House Republicans are currently a ‘no’ on the Senate bill, a horrific problem for MAGA Mike. “Those six House Republicans, some of whom requested anonymity, are enough opposition to tank the package, as GOP leaders grapple with a razor-thin majority.” Remember, their own bill passed the House by just one vote. Republicans can only afford to lose 3 votes and Thom Massie, who voted against the first iteration is a sure no. David Valadao (R-CA) is unlikely to vote no in the end— he has no backbone— but he said that though he supports “the reasonable provisions in H.R. 1 that protect Medicaid’s long-term viability and ensure the program continues to serve our most vulnerable, but I will not support a final bill that eliminates vital funding streams our hospitals rely on, including provider taxes and state directed payments, or any provisions that punish expansion states. Trump was clear when he said to root out our waste, fraud, and abuse without cutting Medicaid and I wholeheartedly agree. I urge my Senate colleagues to stick to the Medicaid provisions in H.R. 1— otherwise I will vote no.” They didn’t but he will be easy for MAGA Mike to turn into a “yes.” Same for Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ), Nick LaLota (R-NY), Chip Roy (R-TX) and Young Kim (R-CA), 3 complainers who always back Trump when push comes to shove. Don Bacon (R-NE), who announced he isn’t running for reelection next year— and is more or less immune from Trump’s wrath— “would not say how he plans to vote on the bill, but signaled that he is not happy with the Medicaid provisions and green-energy tax credit language. ‘Instead of improving the Medicaid and energy portions of [the] House bill it appears the Senate went backwards,’ he told The Hill.”

Earlier Saturday, Jim McLaughlin, one of  Trump’s top pollsters, said Hill Republicans should nix Senate Republicans’ deeper Medicaid cuts in the megabill or risk deep backlash from voters. “The Senate needs to go back to the House version on Medicaid in the [One Big Beautiful Bill Act], just like the president wants. The working class Americans who gave President Trump his overwhelming victory as well as majorities in the House and Senate deserve nothing less.”

Elon Musk chimed in as well… and apparently he and Trump are not exactly on the same page. He was pretty savage— almost like the NY Times— in his critique:

And if that wasn’t enough, he came back with a pretty dire warning to congressional Republicans that if they support the bill, they’ll lose their majorities and that many of them will lose their careers:

Political suicide, huh? Unless the Democrats screw up— which is entirely possible— that means an anti-red wave will sweep dozens of Republicans out of the House, including Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa; Rob Bresnahan, Scott Perry, Brian Fitzpatrick and Ryan Mckenzie in Pennsylvania; Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil in Wisconsin; David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Kevin Kiley and Young Kim in California; David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani in Arizona; Maria Salazar, Anna Paulina Luna and Laurel Lee in Florida; Gabe Evans and Jeff Hurd in Colorado; John James, Bill Huizenga and Tom Barrett in Michigan; Mike Lawler and Nick LaLota in New York; Monica De La Cruz in Texas; Tom Kean in New Jersey; and Jen Kiggans in Virginia.