Senator Chris Murphy And The Road To 2028... Both His And The Other Potential Democratic Nominees

AI's Predictions Are As Worthless As Pundits' Are This Early In The Race

Chris Murphy (D-CT) turns 52 in August, young for a senator, young for a potential presidential nominee. He publicly dismissed interest in a 2028 presidential run, focusing instead on his Senate role and on opposition to Trump and the MAGA agenda. In March, NBC reported that “he bucked the idea that he’s essentially already mounting a shadow run for president— even as he acknowledged he’s looking to ‘build a movement all around this country’ to mobilize against the ‘seizure of government by the billionaires and the destruction of our democracy.’ It’s a theme he says his party needs to adopt to appeal once more to voters who decided they couldn’t back Democrats in 2024… [H]e spent more than $1 million on ads on Meta platforms in February alone, delivering his message directly to individuals. It’s more than he has spent on the likes of Facebook and Instagram in the last five years combined, a period that includes his 2024 re-election campaign... His ads have largely taken on the Trump administration’s early moves in Washington— attacking Trump and billionaire Elon Musk by claiming they are ‘illegally seizing power’ and asking donors to help him bankroll a political movement to fight them.” 

But he’s not focused exclusively on Trump. Murphy also wants to lead the conversation about what has gone wrong for Democrats and how they can win again in the future.

“We have become the party of the status quo, when we’re not. We’re actually the party of change, the party of transferring power from powerful people to people who have no power,” he said. “I think that the traditional sort of political rules still apply. If we have people out on the streets protesting, if we’re overwhelming Republican town halls, if we’re lighting up the phone lines here, political gravity still exists.”

He did far better than Kamala on the Connecticut ballot last year— drawing 1,000,695 votes (58.6%) to her 992,053 (56.7%).She didn’t win any counties that he didn’t, but he won plenty that she didn’t, like Woodstock, Putnam, North Canaan, Suffield and North Stonington. When he talks about the future of the Democratic Party he name-checks progressive like AOC, Jamie Raskin and Jasmine Crockett, not prominent conservative dipshits from the same classes, like Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Don Davis, Josh Gottheimer or Jared Moskowitz. Further than that, he told NBC that “If I have one critique of the 2020 election campaign, it’s that the tent pole of that campaign was democracy, saving democracy, not breaking up concentrated economic power. And in retrospect, I think that was a mistake. That economic message, the message that speaks to a lot of things that Bernie Sanders talks about, is a unifying message in this country. And a lot of people in the Democratic Party tried to make it sound like Bernie was divisive, when, in fact, Bernie’s message, still to this day, speaks to a lot of folks that voted for Donald Trump, a lot of folks that we would love to have back in our camp.”

Some people have dismissed Murphy’s shot at the Democratic nomination because he and his wife, Cathy Holahan, separated last year, right after his re-election, albeit stating the decision was mutual and amicable, with a commitment to co-parenting their two young sons. Meanwhile he has a relationship with Tara McGowan, a Democratic media strategist. There’s no evidence confirming an affair prior to the separation, and Murphy has declined to comment on the relationship, telling Fox News he wouldn’t discuss it.

OK, now for our regular Chris Murphy update. Yesterday, Holly Otterbein reported that he’s launching a new PAC, American Mobilization Project, aimed at taking on Señor TACO and Republicans in Congress— “the latest sign the Connecticut Democrat is eyeing higher office… doling out $400,000 to organizations that oppose cuts to Medicaid and register young people to vote. In an interview, Murphy said that his PAC is unique because it is not focused on funding campaigns and instead is looking to mobilize people against Trump’s agenda. ‘All of us have to realize that if we don’t act aggressively right now to organize and mobilize, we may not have our democracy in 2026,’ said Murphy. ‘I’m a believer that the only thing that is ultimately going to stop Trump’s corruption and his destruction of democracy is mass mobilization.’ Murphy’s PAC expects to spend upwards of $2 million in the 2026 midterm cycle, an aide to the senator said.

In the wake of Trump’s reelection, Murphy has worked to grow his profile and staked out ground as one of the Democratic Party’s most outspoken critics of the president’s efforts to bend institutions to his will. Murphy has appeared on numerous podcasts, held town halls across the country and churned out a steady stream of content on social media.

In the run-up to presidential campaigns, would-be candidates often launch new PACs or outside groups, which can be used to expand their visibility, build their email lists and cultivate political relationships. But Murphy insists his recent moves are not designed to lay the groundwork for a future presidential bid. He has argued that it’s no guarantee that there will even be a race for the White House in 2028, in fact.

“I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion there’s going to be an election in 2026 or 2028 for anybody to run in if we don’t do the work right now,” he said, adding, “I hope that this PAC is going to act very differently than everybody else’s PAC because it’s not about banking money or using money for a political campaign or for other people’s political campaigns. It’s about mobilization.”

The first recipients of contributions from Murphy’s PAC include Georgia Youth Justice and Project 26 Pennsylvania. His group is also backing the Committee to Protect Health Care’s work organizing doctors and nurses to support Medicaid in Michigan, Louisiana and Utah.

Wikipedia lists 24 potential Democratic presidential nominees, including Murphy. Some of them aren’t running but are stoking interest in order to help them raise money and interest for other endeavors, like Rahm Emanuel’s bid to become Illinois’ next senator. Most of the “potentials” Wikipedia lists are absolutely awful candidates— literally garbage, from Emanuel and Andrew Cuomo to Gavin Newsom, Ruben Gallego and Gina Raimondo. Some are absurd suggestions that aren’t going anywhere, like Jasmine Crockett and Stephen Smith. Of the 24, the only movement progressives included are AOC, Jamie Raskin, Jasmine Crockett and Ro Khanna. Meanwhile, Murphy, billionaire JB Pritzker and Cory Booker could also make plays for the progressive mantle, Murphy more credibly than the others.

I ran the names through 5 AI models that were willing to handicap the race. In summation, seven of the candidates were dismissed out of hand by all 5 models:

• Rahm Emanuel– Zero chance. Hated by progressives, labor, and even parts of the center. His Senate ambitions will face serious resistance if he even tries.

• Andrew Cuomo– Nope. Burned beyond redemption. Nobody wants to re-litigate that.

• Ruben Gallego– A strong Senate candidate in AZ, but not a national figure. Running for president would make him look unserious.

• Gina Raimondo– Technocrat, no charisma, no base.

• Jasmine Crockett / Stephen Smith– Not remotely plausible in 2028.

• Kamala Harris– Technically should be the heir, but she’s been damaged badly and polling has her underwater across the board. She could run but would likely be knocked out early unless the field is heavily fragmented.

The Top Tier turned out to be (consensus):

• Newsom with comments like “Like him or not, he's the establishment’s top show pony.” “He has the looks, the donors, the media Rolodex, and he’s already doing the shadow-campaign rounds.” Although one of the models, apparently attunes to DWT noted that “he's smarmy, has baggage from CA’s homelessness/crime/inequality issues, and has zero pull with progressives or working-class Dems. If the field's fractured, he could win by default— but he could also totally implode.”

• Gretchen Whitmer with comments like “Probably the most electable moderate. Rust Belt woman, reelected big in a swing state, pro-choice fighter, good instincts.” ‘She’s low-drama, which could appeal after Trump/DeSantis-style chaos.” “She’d likely consolidate Obama–Biden suburbanites and appeal to labor.”

• Chris Murphy with comments like “articulate, policy-oriented, and he’s been flirting with a bigger national role.” “positioned to straddle the progressive–mainstream line— he’s not AOC, but he talks like a moralist in an amoral system, which gives him appeal.” “His downside: not a superstar personality, and not a big national name. But if the field fractures and Dems want a thoughtful grown-up who can still rally younger voters, he could surge.”

There was also a consensus that Cory Booker, Ro Khanna and Pritzker were in the next tier and a general “feeling” that AOC is THE “wildcard who could break out.” One model noted that “If she runs, she’s a top-tier candidate immediately. She brings youth, media dominance, policy fluency, and a massive grassroots base. But— she’s young, and might wait until 2032 when the lane’s clearer and she’s not up against 5 billionaires and the full weight of the donor-industrial complex.”

WARNING: be very careful of AI models’ handicapping. One literally insisted that Biden is a top tier candidate, even after I argued with it!