Republicans Know Mastriano Can Win the Primary— That’s Why They’re Terrified

The Pennsylvania GOP Doesn’t Fear Mastriano’s Ideas— Just His Optics

Republicans have a recurring problem is wing districts and swing states: their base— which is also their primary voters— is very far right compared to general election voters. This isn’t a problem in crazy states like Wyoming, Oklahoma and Alabama where the more radical right the more pleasing to majorities of voters. But in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania general election voters don’t cast their ballots for right-wing extremists.

Let’s go all the way back to 2022. There were 9 candidates in the GOP primary, 4 serious candidates. The extremist in the race— who ran with Trump’s endorsement— was. State Sen. Doug Mastriano. He won with more than double the second place candidate, Lou Barletta, also an extremist but less of an outright fascist than Mastriano. 

Mastriano did super, right? But then along came the general election and he was swamped by third-rate Democrat Josh Shapiro, who won the half dozen most populated counties, as well as swing counties like Berks, Luzerne, Cumberland and Beaver while holding Mastriano down to razor-thin margins in other counties that normally give Republicans substantial numbers of votes, like Lancaster, York, Westmoreland and Washington.

Mastriano at the top of the ballot helped Democratic congressional candidates in 2 swing districts— Chris Deluzio (D+3) and Susan Wild (R+1)— and in a Republican-leaning district: Matt Cartwright (R+4). A year later, without Mastriano on the ticket, Republicans beat both Cartwright and Wild. Both those freshmen, Ryan MacKenzie and Rob Breshahan, are now viewed as very vulnerable as are Scott Perry and Brian Fitzpatrick.

Now Mastriano is back, talking about a rematch with Shapiro… and Trump, who made him a statewide figure, is worried that he can win the primary, lost against Shapiro and drag down the 4 Republican incumbents. Yesterday. Holly Otterbein reported that “Republicans blame Mastriano for costing the party a Senate contest, multiple House seats and a state legislative chamber in 2022 when he lost by 15 points in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race... [They] believe Mastriano’s name atop the ballot would threaten their chances of keeping their slim majority in the lower chamber.”

State GOP officials said that “a Mastriano candidacy would all but certainly unleash a bloodbath across the state next November. ‘If he’s our nominee, we lose four House seats,’ Pennsylvania-based GOP consultant Josh Novotney said. ‘He’s a nightmare that no one wants.’”

Asked for comment, Mastriano said Politico is “not letting facts getting [sic] in the way of a good story.”

“I can tell you that I have President Trump’s direct line,” he said in a direct message on Twitter. “And he ain’t saying this.”

Despite perennially alarming Republican leaders, Mastriano, a state senator, still appears to have a grip on MAGA voters. A private Public Policy Polling survey conducted in May and obtained by Politico shows him leading state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a likely candidate favored by much of the party establishment, by 21 points.

His perceived strength is springing national and Pennsylvania Republicans into action.

Some state GOP operatives said they hope Trump will back Garrity in a bid to block Mastriano. For now his plans for Pennsylvania’s nascent gubernatorial primary are unclear, particularly since Shapiro is widely seen as the favorite in the general election. Even if Garrity wins the nomination, several state and national Republicans expressed pessimism that anyone can defeat the incumbent, though they believe Garrity would outperform Mastriano.

… A Pennsylvania Republican strategist familiar with the White House’s thinking said the Trump team’s view on Garrity is “look, maybe she doesn’t win, but she’s going to run a really solid race and it’ll help us down-ballot— we can’t get blown out at the top of the ticket and Stacy is a good campaigner.”

Pennsylvania GOP leaders are also quietly making plans to quickly unite around Garrity when she launches her campaign in the coming weeks, in an effort to learn from their devastating losses in 2022, said multiple Republicans.

Mastriano built a devoted following over the years by leading the charge in Pennsylvania to overturn the 2020 election results and unapologetically opposing abortion with no exceptions. He has also cultivated his fan base on social media, including through Facebook livestreams.

But Mastriano’s hardline political brand, underscored by his appearance at the capitol on the day of the Jan. 6 attack, has turned off swing voters and independents.

“He is a nice guy, veteran, great for his district,” said David Urban, a former senior Trump adviser who helped lead the president’s 2016 campaign in Pennsylvania. “He just doesn’t have statewide appeal and that will be a big problem for the down-ballot races across the state.”

In a recent talk radio interview, Mastriano said he’s “in effect” launched an exploratory committee for next year’s gubernatorial race, adding, “we have our team in all 67 counties still standing by.” He did not respond to a request for an interview.

Trump offered his support to Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) when he was weighing a run for governor that he opted against this month. In the Public Policy Polling survey, which quizzed 433 likely Republican primary voters, Garrity received 18 percent and Meuser came in third place with 6 percent.

… Garrity supporters are projecting confidence she’d defeat Mastriano given her close ties to the conservative grassroots movement and biography as a veteran and business leader. Some also expressed doubt that Mastriano would ultimately launch a gubernatorial bid.

“Republican primary voters are very much going to want to beat Shapiro,” GOP strategist and Garrity adviser John Brabender said. “People are smart, they want to win, they want to beat this governor, and it’s going to be clear to them they have a candidate of substance. And I think there will be an incredible unifying around Stacy.”

Mastriano has signaled he is bracing for the GOP establishment to line up behind another Republican to stop him.

In the News Talk 103.7 FM interview this week, he said the state GOP may be eager to “clear the field” in the gubernatorial primary. But, he warned, “they’re not going to clear the field of me.” He said that “we played the game over the past couple years”— an apparent reference to backing McCormick for Senate instead of running himself— and “now we want something out of it, and that will probably be, perhaps, my candidacy.”

In an echo of the 2022 midterm elections, when Democrats meddled in GOP primaries across the country in order to pad their chances in the general election, some on the left are openly encouraging Mastriano to jump into the gubernatorial race.

“Mastriano was literally the single worst Republican candidate for governor in the nation in 2022,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) in a text. “So I’m very much hoping he runs again!”

Mark Pinsley, Lehigh County Controller and the likely Democrat to beat Ryan Mackenzie in the very swingy Lehigh Valley district, told us that all this heated Republican Party infighting “isn’t about voters. It’s about managing a brand. Mastriano gets blamed not because he hurt working people but because he embarrassed the party. Garrity is the ‘safer’ choice because she hides it better. No one’s talking about wealth inequality, wages, rent or healthcare. They treat elections like a chessboard for donors, not a chance to help people. Working-class Pennsylvanians deserve better.”

We expect much more about Mark Pinsley and his campaign to replace Ryan Mackenzie next week.