Reconciliation Allows The GOP To Pass Their Big Ugly Bill Without A Filibuster... But Not All Of It

The worst features of Trump’s big ugly bill are mostly cuts to the social safety net— partially defunding Medicare, Medicaid and SNAP, for example— to finance tax cuts primarily for the super wealthy. That, more or less, is the whole purpose of the bill. And don’t be fooled about the Republican-led Senate stopping it. There will be drama from reactionaries like Ron Johnson (R-WI), Rick Scott (R-FL), Mike Lee (R-UT), but it’s going to pass. However there are other things that House Republicans have tried to sneak into the bill— perhaps in the hope that the senators are as lax about voting before reading as they have been themselves. But the Senate can’t pass those offesive bits and pieces even if a majority— the GOP— wants to.

The Senate process known as “reconciliation” allows it to pass a fiscal bill with a simple majority without the threat of a filibuster, which the Democrats would be able to use to stop the entire bill in its tracks. The Byrd rule is a procedure that prevents “extraneous” or non-budgetary items from being included in budget reconciliation bills, which are meant to align federal spending, taxes and debt with the budget resolution. If a senator objects to a provision as extraneous— some of the ideological garbage that comes over in a bill from the House— and the objection is upheld by the parliamentarian, it's removed unless 60 senators vote to keep it. The Republicans only have 53 votes and even if all the Democraps most likely to cross the aisle to vote with them— Elissa Slotkin (MI), John Fetterman (PA), Ruben Gallego (AZ) and Mark Warner (VA) + independent Angus King (ME)— were to do that, it doesn’t add up to 60.

So which offensive Republican provisions are most likely to wind up on the cutting room floor? Jasmine Li sifted around in the 1,116 page bill to find some of the stuff with the least chance to survive the process. Here’s her list, starting with Gym Jordan’s pathetic attempt to cut of the balls of federal judges: 

• Limiting judges’ contempt power

Republicans proposed blocking judges from holding litigants in contempt for defying court orders, unless they had ordered a bond previously. Some Democrats interpreted it as an effort to protect the Trump administration from judicial accountability as it faces off against federal courts. Since the proposal has no obvious fiscal impact, it is likely to be challenged and might not remain in the final version of the bill.

This is one of several provisions that have flown under the radar for some lawmakers in the tax and spending bill, even as Democrats decry them. Republican Rep. Mike Flood was questioned about the contempt issue at a town hall Tuesday in Seward, Neb. “This provision was unknown to me when I voted for that,” Flood said. “And when I found out that provision was in the bill, I immediately reached out to my Senate counterparts and told them of my concern.”

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)) said at a town hall Friday she didn’t “see any argument that could ever be made that this affects mandatory spending” and didn’t expect to see it in the final bill.

• Deregulating gun silencers

A last-minute amendment would remove gun suppressors, or silencers, from the purview of the National Firearms Act. The change would eliminate some taxes and end a requirement that all suppressor purchases be registered. The effort has drawn guffaws and derision from Democrats.

“Quite frankly, what is in the reconciliation bill does more to support assassins than it does American families,” said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA).

Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-GA), a gun-store owner who championed the legislation, said he believes the provisions will survive. “The taxation and registration of suppressors under the NFA are inextricably linked,” he said. Backers say the devices, which muffle but don’t silence gun shots, help protect the hearing of firearms users.

• A moratorium on state laws regulating AI

The GOP bill includes a 10-year moratorium on state laws regulating artificial intelligence systems. Republicans have argued that it will help streamline regulations and prevent variations between states, making it simpler for companies to operate nationwide. The effort aligns with Trump’s deregulation agenda— he repealed Biden-era efforts to regulate the technology on his first day back in the White House.

“It’s definitely something that would be in Byrd trouble,” Moller said, given the lack of clear budgetary impact.

• Transgender treatment and immigration fees

  
  

Republicans packed proposals that would advance Trump’s political agenda into the megabill. Democrats are expected to challenge a provision to ban the use of Medicaid funding for transgender care, and another that would raise fees for visa and asylum applicants— proposals that could generate $830 million in savings and $67 billion in revenue, respectively, over the next decade, according to the CBO.

An earlier Democratic attempt to use reconciliation to create pathways to citizenship for eight million people was rejected by the parliamentarian.

• Tax provisions with little revenue impact

Several tax proposals in the bill would have negligible effects on revenue, according to estimates from the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, making them more prone to challenges in the Senate.

These include a provision to halt bans or regulations on contingency fees— used by tax professionals to pocket a percentage of the prospective tax refunds or savings they help clients obtain. The IRS has tried to crack down on these fees over the years, arguing that they motivate abuse among tax professionals. Other proposals estimated by the joint committee to have negligible fiscal impact include raising penalties for unauthorized disclosures of taxpayer information, and some tax adjustments for private foundations and nonprofit organizations.

I’ve been told by reliable sources that Democrats will move aggressively to strike several other provisions, starting with Marjorie Traitor Greene’s and Dan Crenshaw’s attempt to defund Planned Parenthood, something that was already ruled non-compliant with the Byrd Rule in 2017, since its primary effect is policy-driven, not fiscal.

Democrats will also move to strike Jason Smith’s and Kevin Hern’s provision to grant the administration authority to designate nonprofits as “terrorist-supporting organizations” and expedite revoking their tax-exempt status, potentially targeting pro-Palestinian or climate groups. 

This one may be a battle, but Dan Crenshaw’s and Bruce Westerman’s provisions to expedite fossil fuel project permits have a regulatory focus (easing environmental approvals) rather than direct budgetary impact  and similar energy permitting provisions were removed in 2022 under Byrd Rule precedent.

Still, even without the extra cruelties that the Byrd Rule will strip out— culture war nonsense designed to rile up the GOP base— the core of this bill is still a disaster. What remains is the heart of the Republican economic agenda: wealth transfer from the bottom to the top. Slashing SNAP (food stamps) by billions means over 10 million low-income households (and as many as 42 million people)— mostly children, seniors and people with disabilities— will face food insecurity. Cutting back Medicare funding doesn’t just trim “waste”— it means fewer preventive services, longer wait times and more out-of-pocket costs for the 65+ population that depends on it. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill’s tax cuts will overwhelmingly benefit the top 1%, who are poised to receive an average annual windfall of over $50,000, while low- and middle-income households see scraps—or a net loss once the cuts to services are factored in.

In short, we’re talking about GOP class warfare, not  fiscal responsibility. And don’t count on self-proclaimed “principled” Senate Republicans to stand in the way. Ron Johnson has spent years pushing to privatize Social Security and Medicare. Rick Scott proposed sunsetting all federal legislation— including those programs— every five years. Mike Lee once said his goal was to “phase out Social Security” entirely. Tthey’re the ideological core of today’s GOP, not outliers.

The reconciliation process means the Byrd Rule will force the removal of some of the most outrageous riders. But the fundamental harm— the defunding of the social safety net to hand tax breaks to billionaires—will remain. The House GOP knows it, the Senate GOP knows it, and unless 4 Republicans suddenly grow a conscience, this bill will pass. And that’s not possible, so count on it passing. And when it does, the consequences will be felt not on Wall Street, but in grocery lines, pharmacies and emergency rooms across America. 

Not all Senate Republicans will be as openly and stupidly callous and cavalier as Joni “We’re all going to die” Ernst (R-IA); instead, virtually all of her GOP colleagues will just lie about what the bill does. They’re already claiming there are no “cuts” to SNAP or Medicaid— just “savings,” “efficiencies,” or a reining in of “waste, fraud, and abuse.” But when you cap funding, impose stricter work requirements, or shift costs to the states without giving them the means to cover it, the result is the same: fewer people get help, and those who do get less of it. The technical language is meant to sound bloodless in Fox News interviews, but the human cost doesn’t change. People lose food, lose care, lose lives. And the GOP will say it's not their fault— it’s the market, or personal responsibility or some other bootstrap fairytale they sell while stuffing their pockets with donor cash.