Predictably, MAGA Mike’s And Señor Trumpanzyy’s Reconciliation Bill Fell Apart In Committee Today

No one is happy with a bill that the NY Times-- and everyone else— is noting will help the rich and the expense of the poor. But the slap down was astounding, getting flushed 21-16, Republicans Republicans Andrew Clyde (GA), Chip Roy (TX), Josh Brecheen (OK), Ralph Norman (SC) and [as a procedural maneuver] Lloyd Smucker (PA) voting with the Democrats, while another NO vote, Brandon Gill (TX) was at home with his wife who was giving birth. And this was just hours after Trump blasted this out on social media:

The Times had reported that “The latest assessment arrived Friday from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a nonpartisan scorekeeper closely watched on Capitol Hill. Economists found that many Americans who make less than $51,000 a year would see their after-tax income fall as a result of the Republican proposal beginning in 2026. The Penn Wharton estimate sought to analyze the full scope of the Republican tax package, computing the effects of the tax cuts as well as the plan to pay for them by slashing federal spending on other programs, including Medicaid and food stamps. Combined, those policies could fall disproportionately on the poorest, including those near or below the poverty line, the economists found. People making between about $51,000 and $17,000 could lose about $700 on average in after-tax income beginning in 2026, according to the analysis, when factoring in both wages and federal aid. That reduction would worsen over the next eight years. People reporting less than $17,000 in income would see a reduction closer to $1,000, on average, also increasing over time, a shortfall that underscores their reliance on federal benefits. By contrast, the top 0.1 percent, including those with incomes over $4.3 million, would gain on average more than $389,000 in after-tax income in 2026, the data show. These earners benefit more from a Republican measure because it cuts taxes on the wealthy and makes other favorable changes, including for businesses, which may improve the value of their investments.”

Earlier, the Punchbowl crew had noted that mainstream conservatives were arguing “that if they lose out on SALT or Medicaid spending cuts, then it could cost them their seats and end Republican control of the House. ‘Moderates are the majority makers’ is their refrain. But conservatives are approaching this fight— in some ways— as if the House may already be lost in 2026. Meaning if House Republicans want major legislative wins that reshape the federal government, now is the moment. This is a subtle yet important subtext of what’s happening.”

Jonathan Martin put the embarrassing mess that the “big beautiful bill” has turned into in context— “the class and geographic divide splintering today’s Republican Party. And more directly, it’s about two midterm elections: Trump’s first, in 2018, when a series of Republicans from affluent districts retired or lost, and his second, next year’s election when many of the lawmakers elected from upscale suburbia ever since are facing difficult re-elections. From the moment the president signed his 2017 tax legislation, which limited so-called SALT deductions at $10,000, congressional Republicans from high-income districts have been vowing to raise the cap. And now a handful are angry, and more than a little perplexed, that the initial House draft of the bill renewing those Trump tax cuts doesn’t do more to address what’s a central concern for their districts: the double-taxing of the large swath of their income that goes to state income taxes, property taxes, sewer taxes, personal-property levies and the like. But… the GOP is bifurcated. Our tribal silos, it turns out, also exist within the same parties. The bulk of Trump-era congressional Republicans represent red states with lower incomes and more modest tax bills than their outnumbered counterparts in blue America.”

He noted that most districts electing GOP House members are “from more rural and less well-educated inland districts. “The median income in [Mike] Lawler’s district is about $119,000, and half of his constituents have college degrees (In [Budget Chair Jason] Smith’s Missouri seat, the average income is $60,000, and only 22 percent of his voters have degrees). Lawler won re-election last year with 52.2 percent of the vote... Smith and House GOP leaders may have thought they could jam the SALT caucus because, well, such moderate Republicans have a history of capitulating on final passage with most major bills.”

“The fact is somebody like Marjorie Taylor Greene is replaceable,” [Lawler] said. “We will win her seat without a problem if she’s not the candidate. In seats like mine, that’s not the case. And so when she says stupid things like, ‘We don’t need RINOs,’ really? You have no ability to deliver on the president’s agenda if you don’t hold these seats.”

Lawler knows, though, that his ultimate leverage on SALT may owe to a different sort of formula: House Republicans may speak with a Southern accent, but it’s the Yankees who have strength in numbers, given the party’s slender majority.

“Unlike in 2017, where the Republicans had a big majority that could allow them to disregard the opinions of people like me and pass a bill that capped SALT at $10,000, they can’t do that this time,” he said.

The consensus on Capitol Hill is that the extremists will wring some concessions out of MAGA Mike and that the bill will pass next week, perhaps even as soon as Sunday night. The NRCC, meanwhile, is telling the less extreme members to man up, bite the pillow and tell their constituents that they should simplify their message and argue they are rooting out fraud and abuse inside the health-care program to ensure it serves the Americans who need it the most, instead of just weathering attacks that the Republican-backed catchall bill working its way through Congress represents dramatic cuts to Medicaid.

Republican voters are pretty dumb and gullible but are that that dumb and gullible? Millions will lose health coverage. Will they believe it’s Biden’s fault? But the sad truth is that earlier today Republicans nearly passed a bill that would make life worse for poor Americans— gutting Medicaid and food stamps— just to keep their billionaire donors and crackpot ideologues content. That five— really 4— Republicans broke ranks is telling, but that the rest didn’t is even more so. This wasn’t a fluke. It’s a preview because GOP austerity will pass the House next week and then get punted over to the Senate.