The House Dems don’t admit it but just about everyone else— except Michael Moore— expects the Republicans to win the midterms, maybe even by a lot. So the Dems are planning for what they can accomplish in the lame duck session, while Republicans are already battling for the spoils.
Realistically, the Democrats can’t be too ambitious; they still have to contend with Manchin and Sinema in the Senate. But yesterday, CNN reported that “Schumer has predicted an ‘extremely busy’ lame duck session.” McConnell will never let anything pass beyond the NDAA (bipartisan Defense Department funding) and a government funding bill. That’s it. The Senate Democrats will be able to confirm judges because the filibuster doesn’t apply. Nothing else can get by McConnell.
Meanwhile, the Daily Beast reported on Trumpworld’s dark obsession with the GOP whip race. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) had already basically bought the position after Madison Cawthorn let McCarthy and Scalise know that it was McHenry who was trying to get in his pants and bothering him to come to angry, they told McHenry to forget it.
If the Republicans take the House— and unless Trump fucks McCarthy— McCarthy will be Speaker, Scalise will be Majority Leader and… a bloodbath will ensue for the #3 position now that McHenry has disappeared. (McHenry is backing Emmer.) The contenders are Republican Study Committee Chair Jim Banks (IN), NRCC Chair Tom Emmer (MN) and Drew Ferguson (GA). Banks is Trump Jr.’s candidate. Emmer can’t really run because he’s running the NRCC but he has Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA), a McCarthy ally, running his whip operation, McCarthy is staying neutral between Emmer and Banks but has let it be known that he doesn’t want Ferguson in a leadership position. Because Banks is so extreme, people are guessing that McCarthy would rather have Emmer on his team. Trump doesn’t like Emmer because he voted to certify the 2020 election.
Banks’ supposed ace up his sleeve is an NRCC fundraising email that was “flying around Save America,” a Trump operative said, referring to Trump’s PAC. The email pitted Trump against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a supposed poll. “According to a new Florida poll, Governor Ron DeSantis is LEADING President Donald Trump 48% to 40% in a hypothetical presidential primary matchup,” the now infamous email read.
“People went out of their way to say, ‘Please don’t show this to the president,’” someone who has spoken with Trump about leadership races told the Daily Beast. This source wasn’t sure Trump ever did see it. In fact, they didn’t think he had, because if Trump did, “that’s one of those things that would generally elicit a reaction.”
Banks is well-known to the former president, and sources indicated that showing this particular email to Trump could move Trump toward endorsing Banks. But that’s not the only endorsement that could play in this race. Don Jr. has also apparently considered backing Banks.
“Don Jr. has privately made clear to friends that he’s a big fan of Banks and wants to see him as the next whip,” a Trumpworld operative backing Banks said. “He had planned to stay quiet about it, but every time he sees Team Emmer attacking Banks in the press, it makes it more and more likely that he wages war in a very public manner.”
Emmer’s team has been careful not to publicly clash with Banks. But a number of sources have pointed out that Banks’ MAGA credentials aren’t quite as solid as they appear.
For one, Banks said he would join the ultra-right House Freedom Caucus upon being elected to Congress. But he never did. Instead, he ended up leading the RSC— the larger, less conservative group that is in competition with the Freedom Caucus.
“Deep down, he dies to be liked by the Establishment. He hires Tucker Carlson’s son, a 24-year-old kid, to be his communications director,” the first GOP strategist said, referring to Buckley Carlson, whom Banks hired in 2019 as a staff assistant and who is now actually 25.
For another, some are pointing out that Banks was an enthusiastic backer of Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY)—the one-time No. 3 House Republican herself who has turned on her party over the GOP’s affected ignorance over Jan. 6.
Banks donated $1,000 to Cheney— in 2016, mind you, but heresy nonetheless in the most MAGA circles. (Banks has since campaigned on behalf of Cheney’s primary rival Harriet Hageman, something Emmer didn’t even do before the primary.)
And then there is a tweet, from Oct. 7, 2016, right after Trump’s Access Hollywood tape came to light, that Trump almost certainly would hate if someone showed it to him:
To this day, Banks hasn’t deleted it.
But Emmer has his own Trump heresy— far more recently, too. Emmer reportedly floated the idea of censuring Trump in the wake of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
All of which is to say: Both Emmer and Banks may have more problems getting Trump’s endorsement than they think.
For now, both teams are trying to seem concentrated on helping Republicans take back the House.
“Chairman Emmer is focused on retaking the majority and firing Nancy Pelosi,” Emmer’s press secretary, Theresa Braid, told the Daily Beast in a statement.
And Banks’ official statement, through his spokesman Carlson, was that “Rep. Banks is working hard to win back the majority so Republicans can get to work cutting inflation, kickstarting our economy, reducing crime and securing the border.”
Pleasantries aside, the race could turn ugly quick. And handicapping the race before the election could be a fool’s errand.
If Republicans have a huge Election Night, many GOP lawmakers may believe they have to find a place for Emmer.
“That’s how a lot of people feel: If Tom wins big, he deserves a promotion,” another GOP strategist said.
But if the GOP’s majority is more muted, Banks may have a clear lane— particularly if Trump favors Banks as sources close to the president suggested.
…Because the race is on a secret ballot, lobbying members one-on-one and coming in with a track record of helping them with fundraising is a huge help.
“At the end of the day, Jim Banks needs his colleagues to vote for him as whip and a lot of colleagues think he’s a snake. Unless Banks can fix his problem of his colleagues not liking him, he is going to have a real issue in this race,” said a national Republican operative.
“Jim Banks is the type of guy that will step over you if you are hurt,” this operative continued, “and then circle back and say he was the Good Samaritan that saved the day.”
