Political Tribalism Is Not A Good Thing-- I Should Know Better... I DO Know Better

A couple of days ago, Doug, a longtime reader from Long Island, reminded me that Tom Suozzi is the kind of very conservative Democrat that Blue America never supports. And that’s true (and Blue America’s list of endorsed congressional candidates doesn’t include Suozzi). Doug, who will soon be a constituent of Suozzi’s, said the candidate is a “conservative voice to fight back against Democrats [and who] won’t accept an endorsement from Joe Biden, in a district with a 90,000 Dem voter registration advantage with a recent history of conservative Democrats running as Republican-lites and losing because of abysmal Dem turnout.” 

So why haven’t I been writing that, instead of the positive Suozzi posts I’ve been putting up? And that’s a good question that I don’t have a good answer to. First of all, I’m guilty as charged. It’s a general election and I have been highlighting what’s negative about his Republican opponent [NY Daily News yesterday: “In her one and only debate with Democratic opponent Tom Suozzi this week, Mazi Pilip— the GOP candidate to replace disgraced former Con(gress)man George Santos— proved at least she didn’t have Santos’ easy capacity to lie by tripping all over herself in trying to address the simple question of whether she supports access to abortion... After a year of the madness of George Santos’ unraveling, the voters of the now vacant Nassau/Queens congressional district deserve a return to seriousness, sanity and experience. Their avenue to that is clear: Tom Suozzi, their once and hopefully future representative. The Daily News enthusiastically endorses him in the special election.”] and finding what’s positive about Suozzi (and he has some positive attributes, despite what Doug and other progressives have had to say about him). And Suozzi is also a personal friend who, unlike many conservative Dems in Congress, has always listened to what I’ve had to say when we’ve disagreed and has been open to moving in a more progressive position, the way Adam Schiff, my current congressman, has over the years.

That said, the reason I’ve written half a dozen positive posts about Suozzi in the last few months is, I’m embarrassed to say, probably tribalism. I grew up in Nassau County and went to college in Suffolk County. And I want to see the shrinking GOP majority in the House continue to crater and, on top of that, I want him land a blow to Republican morale that knocks them off their detestable game as the general election approaches. His district may have a 90,000 Dem voter registration advantage but many of those registered Democrats have been letting their freak flags fly in the last few years— and not in a good way. Tribalism is about strongly identifying for or against a particular political party, sometimes to the point of prioritizing group affiliation over independent judgment. That includes conformation bias. I’m trying to be careful about that.

I think Steven Shepard’s Politico piece yesterday helps explain it as well. “The nation’s suburbs,” he wrote, “are moving toward Democrats. But not on Long Island. Republicans have a three-year winning streak in the close-in suburbs east of New York City— places that rejected then-President Donald Trump in 2020 but have turned red amid concerns about crime and, more recently, immigration.” The original “white flight” destinations are, apparently, filled with angry white men (and women). And Tuesday’s election “will test whether they can maintain their recent stranglehold on those New York suburbs… If Democrats are successful, it may be simply because they are building on nationwide trends among upscale suburban voters. New York’s 3rd Congressional District isn’t just suburban: It has some of the most affluent and educated voters in the country. It ranks 16th in median earnings, and 30th in the percentage of adults with college degrees. That’s what’s made Republican wins there so confounding for Democrats, who hold nearly every other district with similar metrics on education and income... GOP candidates only won two of the top 20 districts in median earnings, New York’s 3rd included, in 2022. If Republicans can pull off a victory, it will offer a blueprint for a suburban comeback elsewhere.” That blueprint is really ugly: scare tactics about crime and immigrants.

Close observers in both parties returned to the subjects of crime and immigration as the key issues in the New York race, and the campaign ad spending confirms that. Every ad Republicans have aired in the New York race has focused on immigration, according to AdImpact.

“It’s part of the country where they’re not even close to the Mexican border, and it’s the number-one issue,” said John McLaughlin, a Republican pollster with extensive experience on Long Island. “They’re really worried about crime, and they’re saying it’s about immigration.”

The Republican tactic is forcing Democrats to respond. Roughly half of all the ads from Suozzi’s campaign have also touched on immigration. The ad he’s run more frequently than any other begins with the line, “You’ve been hearing a lot of nonsense blaming Tom Suozzi for the migrant problem.”

[Steve] Israel, Suozzi’s predecessor in Congress and a former chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, isn’t sure that directly answering the attacks on immigration is the wisest course of action.

“I always advise folks in politics: Never play on your opponent’s turf. Don’t cede them the message. Don’t acknowledge the message. The Suozzi campaign has made their own tactical, strategic decision that they must message on that turf,” he said. “I’m very interested to see whether that decision was the correct one. And if it was, then it will play out in suburban congressional districts across America.”

Both parties may be spending a lot for a fleeting victory. Democrats in Albany are expected to redraw New York’s congressional map before the November election. And Long Island, which is currently represented by three Republicans in addition to the vacant Santos seat, will be a top target.

“This is the most expensive rental of a district that I’ve ever seen, because it’s going to change,” said Israel, citing the flurry of campaign advertising. “Democrats will focus on it in redistricting going into November.”