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Only 23 Seats Flipped This Cycle-- 16 From Blue To Red And 6 From Red To Blue


This very red district flip came as a big surprise to everyone-- sometimes candidates matter

There are only 5 uncalled House elections and I don’t think any of them will flip. Adam Frisch already conceded to Boobert that he lost in CO-03 (by 554 votes, 0.17% in an R+7 district!!). Alaska’s at-large seat is even redder— R+8 but Democrat Mary Peltola won the special election when Republican Don Young died by beating Palin in the first round 39.7% to 30.9% and in the final round, 51.5% to 48.5%. This time Peltola is ahead by an even bigger margin in the first round— 48.7% to Palin’s anemic 25.8%. There’s no reason to think that Peltola won’t finish her off in the second round of the ranked choice tabulations.


The other 3 open races are in California’s redrawn districts. In 2020, but under the new CA-03 boundaries Trump won 49.7 to 47.9 and the PVI is R+4. With 71% of the votes counted, Republican Kevin Kiley is way ahead— 123,561 (52.1%) to 113,492 (47.9%) and there’s no reason to think Democrat Kermit Jones is going to catch up. Similarly, CA-13 is another open seat, although Biden won it 54.3% to 43.4%. The PVI is D+4 and it shouldn’t have been hard for the Democrats to win. But with the counting almost finished Republican businessman John Duarte is ahead of Assemblyman Adam Gray in the ultra-low turnout district, 63,539 (50.34%) to 62,673 (49.65%). Why should Duarte be ahead? Gray is about as bad a candidate as the Democrats picked anywhere. He’s a supper-corrupt conservative who shouldn’t be in any kind of office. And it’s the same with his “Mod Squad” partner, Rudy Salas, running the other uncalled district, CA-22, which is even bluer (D+5— Biden beat Trump 55.3% to 42.3%). Republican incumbent David Valadao, who voted to impeach Trump, is leading Salas— which is as corrupt and conservative as Gray— 44,862 (52.7%) to 40,315 (47.3%). Although only 86% of the votes are counted, I don’t see Salas taking the lead. There’s a chance Gray will but Salas is walking dead. Like I said, they both suck.


Anyway, there won’t be any more flipped seats.That leaves just 22 that did flip. Let’s take a look.

  • NY-03 (D+2)- blue to red, shitty Democratic nominee

  • NY-04 (D+5)- blue to red, shitty Democratic nominee

  • NY-17 (D+3)- blue to red, shitty Democratic incumbent (Sean Patrick Maloney)

  • NY-19 (even PVI)- blue to red, bad lines for a Democrat in a year like this

  • NJ-07 (R+1)- blue to red, bad lines for a Democrat, incumbent scandal

  • VA-02 (R+2)- blue to red, bad lines for a Democrat

  • NC-13 (R+2)- kind of red to blue but really a new district, MAGA candidate. (Under these lines Biden beat Trump 50.1- 48.4%)

  • GA-06 (R+11)- blue to red, severely gerrymandered

  • FL-04 (R+6)- blue to red, severely gerrymandered

  • FL-07 (R+5)- blue to red, severely gerrymandered

  • FL-13 (R+6)- blue to red, severely gerrymandered

  • OH-01 (D+2)- red to blue, bad lines for a Republican, Biden would have won the district 53.5% to 45.0% under these lines

  • MI-03 (D+1)- red to blue, MAGA lunatic won the GOP primary

  • WI-03 (R+4)- blue to red, bad lines for a Democrat

  • IL-13 (D+3)- red to blue, severely gerrymandered

  • IA- 03 (R+3)- blue to red, bad lines for a weak Democratic incumbent

  • TX-15 (R+1)- blue to red, bad lines and DCCC abandoned the Democratic candidate because they hate progressives

  • NM-02 (D+1)- red to blue, bad lines for a Republican

  • AZ-02 (R+6)- blue to red, severely gerrymandered

  • AZ-06 (R+3)- blue to red, severely gerrymandered

  • WA-03 (R+5)- red to blue, MAGA lunatic won the primary

  • OR-05 (D+2)- blue to red, DCCC abandoned the Democratic candidate because they hate progressives


Yesterday Kevin McCarthy told Fox News viewers that he plans to remove Ilhan Omar, Adam Schiff, and Eric Swalwell from their committees, presumably without a vote. Great way for the weakest Speaker in contemporary history to kick off his shaky and probably short term! Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) was on Jake Tapper’s show yesterday. Tapper asked him what kind of a speaker McCarthy will be.


“[I]f you had asked me five years ago, I would have said a pretty good one. Now I think he has cut so many deals with bad people to get to this position that I think he's not going to be a leader at all. I think he will be completely hostage to kind of the extreme wings of the Republican Party. And I, frankly, don't think he's going to last very long. Maybe he will prove me wrong. But it's sad to see a man that I think had so much potential just totally sell himself. He's the one that resurrected Donald Trump. The second he went to Mar-a-Lago a week or two after January 6, he resurrected Donald Trump politically. So he owns everything that Trump says now as a candidate for reelection.”


Kinzinger also mentioned that he believes McCarthy will be “led around on a leash by Marjorie Taylor Greene and members of the Freedom Caucus.” I can imagine that many of those seats that flipped blue to red will be flipping back again in 2024.



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