top of page

On The Record-- The Final DWT House Forecasts... Only Michael Moore Is More Optimistic Than We Are

"Girl!" by Nancy Ohanian

The corrupt conservative corporate fringe of the Democratic Party— the Democraps— are already blaming progressives for the expected losses of Democrap seats. While admitted that “The generic ballot leading up to the midterms is tight, and it’s anyone’s guess what the final House and Senate margins will be,” they insist that the future of the Democratic Party lies in a corporate— not working class— direction. The right wing Dems claim that “If Democrats manage to hold on to the House and Senate, it will be in spite of the party brand, not because of it.” They base that on a convenient interpretation of their own polling. “Voters,” they warned, as they do every election cycle, “see Democrats as just as extreme, as well as far less concerned about the issues that most worry them. A potential saving grace for Democrats is the strength of candidates who have established themselves as more moderate than the party brand as a whole, which when paired with the weakness of their Republican opponents may pull some across the finish line. But if this brand problem persists, Democrats will face an uphill climb in 2024 and beyond.”

Ignoring Bernie and the rets of the progressive core of the party demanding that the DNC, DCCC, DSCC and allied groups focus on kitchen table issues, Third Way is whining that “The national Democratic Party’s woes likely stem in part from a perception among voters that Democrats are not focused on the issues they care about most. Voters do trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle certain topics, but unfortunately for Democrats, the issues where they stand on stronger ground are also those which voters consistently say are less important to them— at least at the federal level. When asked which is the most important issue for Congress to prioritize right now, inflation and the economy win out by a wide margin, with 42% selecting it as their top choice. Immigration and the border follows at 11% and protecting abortion rights rounds out the list of issues gaining double digits with 10%. When given two choices, the same priorities rise to the top, with 59% saying inflation and the economy, 30% immigration and the border, and 17% protecting abortion rights.”

Their nonsense poll was designed so that they could blame bad election results not on the conservative policies that have gripped the Democratic Party because of organizations like Third Way, but on progressives fighting for the working class andtghwarted by the likes of Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, Josh Gottheimer, Henry Cuellar the New Dems and Blue Dogs.

Whatever losses come tomorrow will come primarily among conservative Democrats who largely deserve to lose, possibly a Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire (who is running against one of the most extreme Senate candidates the GOP has put up). Hassan, who collaborated with the GOP to kill the minimum wage increase, should be up by double digits. Instead, the two most recent polls show the race in a dead heat, one with Hassan up by 2 and one exactly even. In the California Central Valley 22nd district, a weak Republican, David Valadao is beating the Democrat, Rudy Salas, 50.6% to 49.4%. That seems close, respectable, right? Well, the PVI is D+5. The partisan lean went from a D+9 to a D+10. So why can’t the Democrats win? Candidate quality. Rudy Salas, one of the most blatantly corrupt members of the state legislature is a leader of the “Mod Squad,” the conservative Democraps in Sacramento who function as though they are Republicans. Why would any Democrat in their right mind want to vote for this walking sack of garbage?

There has been a lot of talk about how terrible the GOP candidates are— and that is accurate. But the media has totally avoided talking about how horrible so many of the Democratic candidates— like Hassan and Salas— are.

Over the weekend, Wall Street Democrat Simon Rosenberg of the New Democrat Network (Now a think tank called the New Policy Institute) compiled a list of battleground states where the early vote is going well for Democrats. He wrote that “This is how many points above 2020 Dem share we are in key states. It's pretty incredible.”

  • Arizona +3

  • Georgia +13

  • Michigan +20

  • Nevada +2

  • New Jersey +16

  • North Carolina +4

  • Ohio +10

  • Pennsylvania +13

  • Texas +8

  • Virginia +9

  • Washington +5

  • Wisconsin +12

This morning, in his Atlantic column, Ron Brownstein warned what will happen if the Republicans take back Congress tomorrow. It’s worth thinking about if you are forced to make a lesser-of-two-evils choice in your district or state. “If Republicans,” he wrote, “win control of one or both congressional chambers this week, they will likely begin a project that could reshape the nation’s political and legal landscape: imposing on blue states the rollback of civil rights and liberties that has rapidly advanced through red states since 2021. Over the past two years, the 23 states where Republicans hold unified control of the governorship and state legislature have approved the most aggressive wave of socially conservative legislation in modern times. In highly polarizing battles across the country, GOP-controlled states have passed laws imposing new restrictions on voting, banning or limiting access to abortion, retrenching LGBTQ rights, removing licensing and training requirements for concealed carry of firearms, and censoring how public-school teachers (and in some cases university professors and even private employers) can talk about race, gender, and sexual orientation. With much less attention, Republicans in the U.S. House and Senate have introduced legislation to write each of these red-state initiatives into federal law. The practical effect of these proposals would be to require blue states to live under the restrictive social policies that have burned through red states since President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020… But if Republicans triumph this week, the next two years could nonetheless become a crucial period in formulating a strategy to nationalize the red-state social-policy revolution. Particularly if Republicans win the House, they seem certain to explore which of these ideas can attract enough support in their caucus to clear the chamber. And the 2024 Republican presidential candidates are also likely to test GOP primary voters’ appetite for writing conservative social priorities into national law. Embracing such initiatives “may prove irresistible for a lot of folks trying to capture” the party’s socially conservative wing, Patrick Brown, a fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center, told me. It starts with abortion.”

This is the Cook Report’s final forecast in what they call the “toss up” races. I don’t even agree with them about which races are toss-up and which aren’t. And I certainly don’t agree with many of their predictions.

Where are they wrong?

  • CA-13- Harder will beat Patti by over 3 points

  • CA-49- Levin will beat Maryott by over 3 points

  • CT-05- Hayes will keep her seat, beating Logan by a couple points

  • IL-17- Sorensen will beat King by a point or two thanks to Democratic gerrymandering

  • ME-02- It may take a second round but Blue Dog Jared Golden will beat Poliquin again

  • MI-07- Slotkin will beat Barrett by a point or two

  • MN-02- Angie Craig will hold on by a point or two

  • NV-03 (although Jon Ralston agrees with them and he’s good at this)- I’m still going to guess that New Dem Susie Lee narrowly wins tomorrow

  • NH-01- Pappas will beat extremist nut Karoline Leavitt by a point or two

  • OH-01- It will be close but I think Chabot will keep his seat

  • OH-13- Emilia Sykes isn’t going to be able to beat Trumpist loon Madison Gesiotto Gilbert

  • PA-08- Matt Cartwright will beat Bognet again although it will be close

  • RI-02- Magaziner will beat Fung, but it will be much closer than it should be

  • WA-08- Schrier will hold onto her seat by 2 or 3 points

By the way, a lot of these Democrats who I think will win are conservatives who I'm not rooting for... but I'm calling 'em the way I see 'em. That’s a lot of wrong— either for Cook or for me. We’ll see tomorrow night. One more thing— it will almost certainly take a second round, but in the end, ranked choice voting in Alaska will leave Mary Peltola with a decisive win over Palin, ending that crackpot’s political career once and for all.

bottom of page