McCarthy Got All But 90 Fascists To Vote For A Clean CR--These 13 Face 2024 Defeat
James Carville “You know, when you elect a bowl of Jell-O, what you get is a bowl of Jell-O. And it’s not gonna change! And the reason that they put him in there is because he was a bowl of Jell-O.” Yeah, but he does like being speaker. So is there any way to avert a government shut down— or at least make sure it’s a very short and painless one— and still stay speaker? Probably not, since the only way to avert the shutdown is to work with Democrats to pass a bipartisan bill and if he does that, the extremists in his conference will remove him as speaker. They’re insisting on a bill so extreme that not even mainstream conservative Republicans are willing to vote for it. Thursday night, when McCarthy let them have their way on a crackpot agricultural appropriations bill, 27 conservative Republicans— including all 4 from Iowa— voted against it and tanked it!
So, basically, McCarthy had to make a decision: country or career. What would Jello do? Last night McCarthy and his team floated the clean CR the Democrats would accept (and tossed the Russo-Republicans a bone by saying he’d leave out aid to Ukraine— which everyone knows will be restored in the Senate). This morning the neo-fascist crowd that tanked the very, very right-wing CR yesterday said “no way.” For McCarthy, a clean CR was a threat to the extremists that if they didn’t do it the way he’s been offering them, their worst nightmare (a bipartisan appropriations bill) would happen. And it did. It passed this afternoon 335-91.
Hours ago, when rumors started flowing that McCarthy had decided to go with the clean CT, Jordain Carney and Daniella Diaz reported that
McCarthy and his team were considering a 45-day CR (so after the Virginia elections that Glenn Youngkin has stopped calling him about and that a shutdown will kill GOP chances to hold the state House and win the state Senate… and salvage Youngkin’s career). McCarthy was trying to figure out how much he had to offer the Democrats— in the way of eliminating pre-planned GOP pain for the most needy— to get the votes he’d need from them to make up for the GOP’s own “Shut It Down” caucus inspired by Trump and led by Matt Gaetz and Bob Good (ironically, a Virginian). Whip Tom Emmer told McCarthy and the rest of his team that his vote count showed they— the majority party— couldn’t pass anything with Democratic help. So McCarthy took out all the pain and misery the hard right had hoped to inflict on the country.
McConnell announced he would torpedo the Senate's own bipartisan bill and accept what McCarthy sent over (so no new aid for Ukraine at this point). I'm guessing that the shutdown will start tonight and end Monday. And then the question becomes, when do Gaetz and the rest of the neo-fascists execute their motion to vacate the chair. Before the vote, Gaetz threatened "“If Kevin McCarthy puts a continuing resolution on the floor, it’s going to be shot, chaser; continuing resolution, motion to vacate."
According to CNN, the White House is certain that in the end, the public will blame the Republicans for a shutdown. Their source told them that “‘There’s no expectation that McCarthy will be able to pass something on his own’ that could clear the Senate. How long a potential shutdown lasts ‘depends on how much pain McCarthy can endure.’ Watching the chaos unfold from the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, Biden and his aides have adopted a mostly hands-off approach, accusing McCarthy of reneging on a spending deal and listing the ways a shutdown would inflict damage on normal Americans. McCarthy has declined to schedule a House vote on the Senate bill, which includes $12 billion in total aid for Ukraine and domestic disasters and would keep the government open until November 17.”
Biden and his aides have been working to ensure the blame for a shutdown is placed on what they call “extreme” Republicans, including by highlighting the effects on disaster relief, food stamps, airports and pay for active-duty troops.
More broadly, Biden’s aides believe the inability of McCarthy to rally his House Republican conference around a funding plan illustrates a level of dysfunction that will benefit the president. Biden has framed his opponents as unable and unwilling to serve the public’s interests.
For weeks, Biden’s advisers have been mulling how involved to get in lawmakers’ deliberations over funding and ultimately decided to take a hands-off approach. Their expectation: Should the GOP-led House struggle to reach consensus before October 1, Republicans would ultimately shoulder the blame for any disruption.
“Watch the GOP struggle and force them to govern or be blamed for shutdown,” a Biden administration official said, summing up the strategy.
Administration officials have ample evidence on their side: Congressional Republicans have regularly caught the blame for government shutdowns over the last two decades as they sought to extract concessions on spending from Democrats and moderates.
On Friday, Biden condemned Republicans for a potential government shutdown– which would leave more than a million active-duty service members without a paycheck– calling it “an absolute dereliction of duty.”
“Our service members will keep upholding their oath, showing up for work standing sentinel around the world, keeping our country secure, but they won’t get paid,” he said.
The president called that “a disgrace” as he urged Congress to “never lose sight of the direct impacts of decisions we make, and the impact they have on the lives and families around the world.”
McCarthy snuck a pay raise for members into the bill. Marjorie Traitor Greene threw a shit fit on her way out of the chamber after the vote. Most of the 90 Republicans who voted against the clean CR are in rock-solid red seats, but 13 of them could potentially be defeated in 2024:
David Schweikert (AZ)- Trump lost with 48.6%
Lauren Boebert (CO)- Boebert won with 49.92%, closest race of the cycle
Scott Perry (PA)- Trump won with 51.3%
Aaron Bean (FL)- Trump won with 52.7%
Tony Gonzales- Trump won with 52.9%
Bob Good (VA)- Trump won with 53.4%
Nancy Mace (SC)- Trump won with 53.5%
Cory Mills (FL)- Trump won with 52.2%
Jeff Van Drew (NJ)- Trump won with 51.8%
Jay Obernolte (CA)- Trump won with 53.7%
Andy Ogles (TN)- Trump won with 54.5%
Matt Rosendale (MT)- in his Senate race
Ryan Zinke (MT)- Trump won with 52.2%
This morning I spoke with Herb Jones, a retired Army colonel and the progressive candidate running for Congress in eastern Virginia for a seat held by MAGA-supporter Rob Wittman, who had voted to shut down the government (but was scared enough to vote for the clean CR today). Jones told me that "The Republican government shutdown will certainly help Virginia General Assembly candidates this year and Senate and Congressional candidates next year. Youngkin had a tall order to start with; the Republican shutdown makes his task all that more difficult. They fail to realize that the shutdown will drive folks who may not vote in off-off-year elections to the polls. It will harm working families, paycheck-to-paycheck families, and families/individuals who have fallen through the cracks." One person-- not counting Putin-- is very, very happy with the shutdown, this one: