In 2020, when Nate McMurray was running for Congress in a very red district in western New York (the reddest district in the state), during the pandemic, he told me that "For decades, my district has been plagued by out-of-touch Republicans who chase power, abandon the people in pursuit of power, and end up resigning in disgrace. Is it any wonder that NY-27 has one of the worst job markets in the country? To Chris Jacobs, Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump, and any other do-nothing politician that stands in the way of working-class families putting food on the table in the middle of a global pandemic that they lied about: History, and the voting public, will not forget the death and ruin you caused by abandoning the American people. If we don't take a clear stand in support of humanity and our democracy, we will lose both of them. If I were in Congress today I'd be fighting for monthly direct payments to individuals, a free and universally available vaccine, rent, mortgage and student loan forgiveness; a full-blooded bill that actually answers the cries of families like mine that are struggling to survive in Trump's America.”
Two years earlier, with virtually no help from the Democratic establishment, McMurray nearly won this R+11 district that gave Hillary just 35%.
Collins won by 1,087 out of 285,178. DCCC head Cheri Bustos sabotaged the race, preferring a fellow conservative like Chris Collins than McMurray, an independent-minded progressive. The DCCC spent million of dollars on candidates that didn’t come even close to how well McMurray did. That’s why I always say that if there was no DCCC, the Democrats would have a huge permanent House majority.
Today, McMurray is strongly considering jumping into the race in NY-26, a far better fit for him, a blue (D+9) district where the long-time backbench incumbent, Brian Higgins, is retiring. Many in the establishment have coalesced around one of the most conservative state senators in New York, Tim Kennedy, who first ran on both the Democratic Party line and the Conservative Party line, spewing anti-Choice nonsense. Kennedy, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (who calls himself "a centrist") and Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz are the frontrunners... so far.
Just over three years ago, McMurray told me that “The Democratic leadership is not really well connected to working people and communities. And it really shows— Democrats lost a lot of ground over the years at the state and local level. But the situation is fixable. The grassroots of the Democratic party has bold initiatives that excite and inspire voters to get involved, and the Democratic Leadership would do well to really listen... Extreme Republicans know that if every American votes they will lose. So they traffic in conspiracies, lies and the politics of fear to destabilize the electoral process and end democracy as we know it. And their march toward authoritarianism will not end with a whimper but with the bang and butt of a gun.”
He told me that he and his team are analyzing how to win a primary in a machine county stacked against him. Yesterday, he offered voters in Buffalo and the surrounding area a “cheat sheet” on the politics of the district. This is what he wrote:
TEAM A: Polo and Zellner
These two guys— Mark Poloncarz and Jeremy Zellner (Polo and JZ)— seem to hate each other behind the scenes, but also seem bound by their shared secrets and desperation/aspiration. Now I know they look like two guys trying to sell you vacuum cleaner parts door-to-door, but together Mark Poloncarz and JZ are the largest employer in Western New York.
Let me explain . . .
Erie County is the biggest employer here. We don’t have a single fortune 500 company— partially due to the leadership of Polo and JZ. But Polo and JZ have had the power to appoint hundreds of people to jobs at the water authority or refer people to the school district or the department of public works etc. FOR OVER A DECADE. In a place with so few jobs, that buys power. We all got to eat.
And when you tell people that they work for Polo and JZ, they have this strange comeback. “We work for the people of New York State!” Uh, OK. At a job POLO and JZ gave you. And I’m not talking about part-time parks and rec gigs. Some of these jobs are pretty nice, like $175,000 a year for Congressman Higgin’s former chief-of-staff at the water authority, I guess drinking water.
Even though Polo controls a billion dollar Erie County budget, Jeremy arguably has more political power than anyone else in Erie County because of his dominance of the county Democratic party machine as chairman and also top man at the Board of Elections (no one else has such power). This makes it nearly impossible to run for office without his consent.
Many of the village and town party officials also work for him directly at the Board of Elections, so to overthrow him you would literally have to convince his friends and employees to vote against him in an open forum— i.e., defy their boss publicly. Good luck. Plus, when he says the Democratic Party backs someone, to casual Dems, that means they must be good, even if it just really means, that they're good for JZ.
If you do somehow run for office and get on the ballot in defiance of the whims of Lord JZ, he will sic his many tax-payer funded lawyers upon you and get you disqualified or even throw in jail for campaign fraud. I’m not kidding, ask around. It’s like turn of the last century Chicago or something.
What does all this mean? Even though Mark just won his race, I guarantee you he’s eyeing control of that congressional seat. He has said publicly that he doesn’t want to sit in that county executive office forever. He knows it’s a mess and he created the mess. And JZ, for reasons explained below, can’t afford to lose him as his part of their unholy-alliance. They both want up and out.
TEAM B: TIM KENNEDY AND BRIAN HIGGINS
Despite my criticisms of Polo and JX, I think they at least have some grain of real interest in progressive policy. Unlike Tim Kennedy (Timmy), who I don’t think cares about anything except staying in office.
Polo and JZ will betray their values by cozying up to right-wing types (like our “Democratic” County Clerk who used to support right-wing maniacs like Rick Santorum) etc., if they feel they are in jeopardy. But I think they might feel some guilt, at least some deep soft part within their politically hardened souls might feel some guilt. Not Kennedy. He’s got the moral conviction of Mark Anthony from Julius Caesar, Reverend Parris from the Crucible. Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings. He does nothing that is not directly in is political interest.
Think I’m being just petty and mean? I’m trying to be clear. The time for Marquess of Queensberry Rules in politics has long passed. When Democracy is at risk, a few headlocks are necessary. You need to know who you are dealing with, behind the glossy advertisements. Do you understand the stakes of sending someone like Tim Kennedy to Washington from the bluest of blue seats in New York State?
This is a man who worked with Republicans to try to stay in control of the New York State assembly.
This is man who spent most of his career as staunchly anti-abortion.
This is a man who I witnessed personally hiding in the bathroom at political events so he could emerge at the opportune time to grab the microphone without consent.
That’s Timmy.
Over the last 10 years, Timmy has grafted himself to retiring Congressman Brian Higgins, the most popular politician in our region. Now, if you’ve heard me say something bad about Brian in the past, it was with reluctance. I think he is a charming and decent person. I just don’t think he is the type of person to stand up to MAGA boldly. It's not his personality, and that’s where most of my criticism of him comes from. He was just too quiet acting like nothing has changed in Washington, seemingly hoping to go out to dinner with Carl Paladino and Roger Stone to hash everything out peacefully. Even his comments about his retirement reference the fact that he didn’t like the fighting in DC— a fight that we must have, like it or not.
But Brian knew the history of this region and he appreciated its strengths— namely the waterfront. He brought millions to this region to make the waterfront better. Is it perfect? No. But if anybody has helped improve Western New York and Buffalo, it’s Brian. The other politicians seem perfectly willing to keep the status quo. Keep unemployment high. Keep the environment polluted. And really not shake up anything as long as they are safe. But Brian made a difference by creatively going after the power authority for funding. He even helped me as a small town supervisor on Grand Island. I stood up for the West River trail connecting Buckhorn State Park to Beaver Island, and Brian was the only one who had my back.
Now Brian may not admit it, but I heard him say once that if he doesn’t retire soon Tim Kennedy’s going to push him down the stairs. Brian and Tim worked hard on fundraising together and like Polo and JZ I’m sure their fragile bond is somewhat of an allegiance of uncomfortable convenience. They’re both South Buffalo, Irish boys, or at least identify as such as part of their public persona, and I think there may be some general affinity there because of those shared roots. But Brian is really nothing like Tim. He just isn’t.
Team Kennedy has another problem. The reason JZ and Polo hate me so much is they thought I was planning their political demise. I wasn’t. But Team Kennedy is actually planning their political demise.
To be honest, when I ran for Congress, I didn’t even think about JZ and Polo other than my general frustration about why they never picked up my phone calls and refused to hang up my sings until there was almost a revolt by the rural counties. I did, however, hire a campaign staff that was largely anti-Jeremy because Jeremy wouldn’t send me any of his own people. This made Jeremy paranoid. He thought I was in league with these folks— and with Timmy! Some of these folks did in fact tell me that their goal was vengeance on JZ. I never shared that goal, however, and I was frustrated that I was stuck in the middle of the political rift.
You see, to take power, JZ staged a coup against the former democratic party chairman, Steve Pigeon, who is currently in jail, I believe. And a lot of the people that used to work for Pigeon and relied on him as a political benefactor still hate JZ for ending their gravy train and getting labeled “Pigeon-istas.” They were pushed out of the safe Western New York bubble of crony jobs and political appointments. All of this was way before my time, but somehow I was held accountable for the whole thing— still am. But I don’t even know what Steve Pigeon looks like. Never met him.
But I’ll tell you what, Jeremy, those folks that were working with me? They’re very close to Kennedy. And if Kennedy wins and becomes the most powerful politician in Western New York, what does that say for the future of Team Polo and JZ? I'm sure Timmy (a former Pigeon-ista himself) remembers all the nasty stuff you used to say about him publicly and how you used to refuse to even endorse him. So where does a County Executive who was in office for over a decade with terrible results (poverty, crime, decline) go if not to Congress? And what does JZ’s life look like in a world controlled by former right-wing friendly politician, Timmy, flanked by an army of real Pigeon-istas? What does a former pizza deliveryman who never won an election do?
TEAM C: BYRON BROWN
I know that within the lefty salons of the Buffalo suburbs Mayor Brown is considered a joke, a punching bag, and a punchline responsible for all of Buffalo’s problems. Part of the reason for this is because he lost a primary to Democratic Socialist India Walton and then used every ounce of his political power to demolish India unfairly, both personally and politically in the general election.
The crafty Poloncarz has skillfully channeled that lefty hate to blame Brown for everything wrong with Western New York and avoid accountability. This, “blame the Black guy strategy” was used, for example, even when Mark was screaming on TV at Brown after the December 2022 storm— even though it was Polo who called the travel ban late, was in league with Brown for years, and had almost no County vehicles able to assist with trapped drivers who died across Erie County (not just the city). It was easy for Mark to blame Brown because the streets weren’t plowed. So he did it.
Brown was once very close politically to Timmy (because of their shared suspicion of Polo and JZ), but, I think, Brown could pose a threat in NY 26. The reason is, whether the democratic socialist kids in Amherst and other white suburbs believe it or not, a lot of folks in the city really like Byron Brown. That’s why he’s politically successful. Part of it is again due to the patronage and crony jobs that he relies on (like JZ and Polo) to stay in power. But part of it stems from a legitimate interest in seeing someone who might better reflect their community in Washington— even if it’s the flawed Byron Brown.
Timmy, being the Machiavellian figure that he is, has spent the last five years going to a predominately Black church in Buffalo religiously (in every sense of the word), which he never went to before. Why do you think that is? You think he had a Saul on the road to Damascus response to whatever the clergy at that church are teaching? We know what’s up. But these and other efforts by Timmy have won him at least some base of support in the City of Buffalo. If Brown runs, however, I think Timmy, who previously defeated and publicly undermined well known, Black political leaders, will face further trouble.
TEAM EVERYBODY ELSE: NATE AND THE OTHERS
Might I consider running? Heck yes. Laugh away yes-men in the Erie County Exec’s office, as you look down at the poverty you caused below. But if all these people jump in, maybe let’s have at it. It’s not very often that a seat like this comes up. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to run for a blue congressional seat in Western New York.
I know I ran before and lost. But that was in NY-27. These jokers above wouldn’t even consider running in NY-27 because there was 40,000+ more Republican votes in that district than Democratic votes. It was the mirror opposite of NY-26. It was a seat difficult to even run in as a Democrat let alone win. Yet we almost won! Twice!
I almost won, even in that seat, because I wasn’t afraid. Because there were things that needed to be said about this country and this region, that none of these establishment politicians are willing to say. And Because I believed our Democracy was at risk. I’m very proud of what I represented. Look at the races since in that red region to see how lopsided they have been, and it will show you how strong what we did actually was. I love all the people who supported me, and I still believe in them, and in this region.
So if there are several candidates in this race, and the establishment vote, status-quo vote, is split, I will strongly consider running to fight for Grand Island, where I was supervisor, for North Tonawanda, where I was born, and for Buffalo and its suburbs where my mother, brothers, sister and friends all live. And heck, I will certainly fight for Niagara Falls, the most neglected and underutilized asset and city in the entire country.
But what if I lose? Who cares? I'm used to opposition. I'm not used to staying silent on things I care about. We''ll all be gone soon enough, and I want my kids to know that at least I tried to fight.
This is my home. This is my heart. My kids go to school here. I own a home here. I know this place. And I want someone to represent this blue seat that reflects our values. Say what you want, I also have the international perspective, scope of world experience, and fearless resolve that these other politicians just don’t. I would improve Western New York. And look around. We need it.
