More Straws In Wind In FL-06 Special Election

This Race Can Determine If The GOP Wrecks Social Security

-by Patrick Toomey

This recent article is worth noting. Melanie Zanona reported that “Republican leaders have grown privately alarmed about the massive fundraising disparity their candidate, Randy Fine, faces in a special House election in a deep-red Florida district and have swooped in to help resuscitate his campaign at the 11th hour. House GOP leaders have in recent days been calling donors to plead for financial help in the race to fill the seat previously held by Michael Waltz, who is now President Donald Trump's national security adviser, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter. In addition, Fine, a state senator, has made personal pleas to Florida-based lobbyists and donors for a quick infusion of cash, according to two sources familiar with those conversations, ahead of the April 1 election.”

Fine has a prickly reputation even among Florida Republicans. For those who have worked with him over the years, many are not surprised that he is at risk of underperforming in a solidly Republican area.

“This race is proof that candidates matter,” said one veteran Florida GOP operative, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Randy will win because the seat is so Republican and because so much money came in late but this is a case of Team Trump dragging him over the finish line.”

There are 3 obvious takeaways from this article:

1. Nominee Randy Fine is unpopular WITHIN THE GOP;

2. The GOP is finally starting to notice that Fine is struggling;

3. CNN, MSNBC and other news outlets obsessively cover Trump 24/7, but they still haven’t noticed this race.

This recent article is also worth noting:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Tuesday that he expected state Sen. Randy Fine (R) to underperform in the special election for Florida’s 6th Congressional District next week. 

“Regardless of the outcome in that, it’s going to be a way underperformance from what I won that district by in 2022 and what the president won it by in November,” DeSantis told reporters. 

…Fine and DeSantis have a contentious history. Fine became the first Florida lawmaker to switch his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in the 2024 GOP primary, saying he made the switch because Trump’s actions demonstrated his support for the Jewish community.

Again, this article shows how many enemies Fine has within his own party. It also shows that other Republicans are setting up Fine as the fall guy in advance in case this race does go south for them. 

Finally, I note this ad the LBJ campaign ran against Barry Goldwater on Social Security in 1964:

EVERY political junkie knows about the legendary “Daisy” ad that attacked Goldwater’s trigger-happy nature. I still wish that the Dems had run similarly effective ads against Trump about his 1/6 insurrection. 

I did NOT know about this highly effective Social Security ad that LBJ’s campaign also ran. I wish more than ever that the Weil campaign would run a similar ad attacking Fine on Social Security. It’s clearly a GOP third rail issue in this district that Team Weil needs to laser focus on.

For all I know, party loyalty  will ultimately prevail in this R +14 CD. It is becoming increasingly evident, however, that GOP palms are starting to sweat about an election that was expected to be a shoo-in. 

Funny thing is, Mike Waltz quit this safe seat to publicly disgrace himself as National Security Advisor this week. It would be beyond ironic if Waltz’s departure from the House (to endanger national security as NSA head) simultaneously narrowed the already precarious GOP House majority. Were Weil to somehow pull this off, maybe God does have a sense of humor after all.

Addendum:

After submitting my initial draft, I came across this Florida Politics poll showing this race within the margin of error. It’s the first tangible evidence I’ve seen that this race is that competitive. I also received a text from a 45-year friend who has ample experience running successful US House campaigns in Central Florida. He was initially skeptical when I first contacted him about this race several weeks back. He is far more optimistic about it in recent days.

It’s not too late to contribute to Weil’s Get-out-the-vote effort here.