MAGA Mike Lawler's Time Is Up... No Matter Which Way He Turns

After a 10 point Biden victory in 2020, Kamala ever so narrowly beat Trump in New York’s 17th district last year— 49.9% to 49.3%. Because of a bizarre, self-inflicted meltdown by the Democratic congressional candidate, Mondaire Jones, odd-ball GOP incumbent Mike Lawler retained the seat, 197,845 (52.2%) to 173,899 (45.9%)— with 2% going to Working Families candidate Anthony Frascone.

Westchester County is where most of the NY-17 voters live and Lawler scored just 43% there. But he made up for it by winning big in swingy Rockland County (58%) and in the two less populated counties, Putnam (58%) and Dutchess (61%). But there are a couple of twists in the road to his reelection effort in 2026. First of all there’s a real strong candidate among the 6 (and growing) Democrats in the primary— Mike Sacks. Second of all Lawler wants to run for governor, not Congress and third of all Trump is behind Elise Stefanik in the gubernatorial race.

Let’s leave Sacks’ role on the side for today. Take my word for it, he’s the best candidate; I know him and his awesome family and you can contribute to his campaign here. More on him soon. For now, let’s stick to that little gubernatorial bump in the road. 

Yesterday, Alex Isenstadt reported that Trump has absolutely big-footed into the gubernatorial race in the off-chance that Stefanik has a chance to beat the unpopular Kathy Hochul. If Stefanik loses (likely), the GOP is still probably going to retain her very red district (R+10)— which she won last year with 62.1% and which Señor Trumpanzyy won with 60.1%— and Trump can just give her a job in hiss administration. Isenstadt wrote that “Trump last week endorsed two of Stefanik's potential rivals for governor— New York Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman— for re-election to their current posts. The moves appeared aimed at taking Lawler and Blakeman out of contention for governor… ‘By endorsing Blakeman and Lawler for re-election to their current positions, it looks to me like he is trying to clear the way,’ said John Catsimatidis, a New York grocery store mogul and prominent Trump supporter.”

Isenstadt also noted that “Trump's decision to push Lawler for re-election is also shaped by his desire to protect Lawler's Southern New York-based swing seat, which Vice President Harris won by 1 percentage point in 2024. Republicans believe Lawler is their best chance to retain the seat, which will be key to deciding the House majority next year. Top Republicans close to the White House are circulating a spreadsheet with estimates for how much it would cost the party to defend the seats of potential House retirees. The ballpark figure for Lawler's seat: More than $14 million in TV advertising. Lawler is expected to decide his plans in the next few months. Said one Trump ally: ‘This is an all-out effort to make sure Lawler doesn't leave the House.’”

This is the thing about Lawler. His 2020 win was more fluke than mandate— a red ripple boosted by Democratic dysfunction and a late-stage self-immolation by loathed DCCC chair and carpetbagger Sean Patrick Maloney. Lawler’s reelection was far from inevitable and it’s become downright precarious now. He’s certainly not a representative with broad-based support— he’s a political parasite feeding off Trump’s chaos, confusion, and just enough suburban swing votes to keep himself afloat. 

If we look closer at his record, what we see is a fraud. His faux-“moderate” branding is a cheap costume that never survives scrutiny. While he occasionally issues press releases touting bipartisan “common sense,” his voting record tells another story entirely— one of lockstep extremism and MAGA enablement. Despite representing a swing district, Lawler votes with the hard-right House GOP conference nearly all the time, propping up the same toxic agenda that his constituents overwhelmingly reject. When push came to shove— on reproductive rights, on LGBTQ protections, on gun safety, on holding insurrectionists accountable— Lawler didn’t break with the extremists. He was the extremists.

He voted to censure Adam Schiff for investigating Trump’s role in the attempted coup. He supported GOP attacks on trans kids and immigrants. He parroted the party line during the debt ceiling hostage crisis, risking economic catastrophe just to give his party leverage. He backed sham impeachment inquiries into Joe Biden while doing absolutely nothing to hold corrupt Trump allies accountable. And he helped keep the deeply compromised, election-denying Mike Johnson installed as Speaker— a man who, like Lawler himself, only pretends to be vaguely mainstream when the cameras are rolling, while building a relationship with George Santos and co-sponsoring Marjorie Traitor Greene's crackpot legislation renaming the Gulf of Mexico, something no other mainstream conservatives did.

Lawler also voted to block funding for abortion access and even refused to denounce Project 2025— the neo-fscist roadmap to dismantle the federal government and permanently entrench Trumpism. That’s not centrism; it’s complicity. And Lawler’s betrayal of his constituents doesn’t stop at his voting record. He’s also shown himself to be a cynical careerist with one eye always looking at the next rung of the ladder— as in the gubernatorial aspiration. His naked ambition, combined with his utter lack of backbone, has made him enemies on both sides of the aisle. And when the heat turns up, Lawler doesn't lead— he disappears.

Yesterday, in an interview with Steve Inskeep, Lawler dodged and deflected when pressed on Republicans’ proposal to gut Medicaid that he voted to green-light. He tripped all over himself in his muddled attempts to explain why he would vote for the massive Republican Medicaid cut that is going rip away Medicaid from over 10 million Americans to pay for tax breaks that will go disproportionately to multimillionaires and billionaires. He avoided answering Inskeep when he asked him if he accepts that people will lose Medicaid benefits under the bill? As always, Lawler parroted the party line: “The fact is, Medicaid is a means-tested program that is there to help those in need. If you're able-bodied, you should be trying to get a job and ultimately either be able to purchase health insurance on the open market or get insurance through your employer.”

Inskeep responded that “I'm hearing you say that you believe that people will lose Medicaid benefits, but you're arguing that they don't deserve the Medicaid benefits. Is that right?” And Lawler, twisting himself into a pretzel, tried to avoid answering the question again: “Like I said, the objective is to protect these vital programs for eligible recipients, but if people are gaming the system, no, they should not be receiving benefits, you know, and certainly for able-bodied adults, they should be working. That's something Bill Clinton championed in the '90s.”

In a moment where democracy is genuinely at risk, NY-17 deserves someone with clarity, courage, and conviction. Lawler has none of those. He’s a hollow man in a borrowed suit, just biding time and chasing headlines while his district— and the Constitution— burns. The voters in Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and Dutchess sent a message in 2020. They rejected Trumpism. In 2022, Lawler slithered through a crack in the system. But the clock is ticking. With a multi-faceted Democratic field emerging and the toxic GOP brand dragging down swing-district incumbents, Lawler’s days of pretending to be something he’s not are probably numbered. He hasn’t earned and doesn’t deserve another term. He doesn’t even deserve the one he’s serving now.