Jim Justice Would Start As A 74 Year Old Freshman If He Wins
West Virginia was once among the bluest states and now it’s one of the reddest. The state PVI is R+22, worst than any Confederate state. The only place in the whole country that’s worse is Wyoming (R+25) which shouldn’t even be a state and by all rights should be part of what is now North Dakota, South Dakota Wyoming. They can call it whatever they’d like but it would only have 2 senators (instead of 6) and 2 members of Congress instead of 3. That would be great. But, let’s stick with West Virginia here. West Virginia gave Trump a higher percentage of votes than anywhere own the country— 68.50%. The other Trumpiest states were Wyoming (68.17%) and Oklahoma (65.32%). Four years later, West Virginia increased its Trumpophilia— 68.62%… but Wyoming became even worse— 69.94%.
In West Virginia, every single country in the state voted for Trump. The closest Biden came to win was in Monongalia (48.21%), Jefferson (43.78%) and Kanawha (41,76%). The most poverty-stricken countries in the state didn’t exactly flock to Biden:
McDowell Co. (per capita income- $14,874)- 78.87% Trump
Clay Co. (per capita income- $16,827)- 79.61% Trump
Gilmer Co. (per capita income- $17,155)- 75.58% Trump
The last time Joe Manchin ran, in 2018, he narrowly beat Republican Patrick Morrisey 290,510 (49.57%) to 271,113 (46.26%). Manchin won Gilmer and McDowell counties and lost Clay by 56 votes. He’d probably lose all 3 if he runs again next year— which he’s unlikely to do.
Basically all the polling shows him losing to Republican Gov. Jim Justice, the same kind of independent conservative that Manchin is. The most current public polling shows Justice ahead 51-38% with 11% undecided. Manchin has the worst lifetime vote score of any Democrat in the Senate— 61.29%, comparednto 77.08% for Kyrsten Sinema.
Yesterday, Luke Broadwater and Jonathan Weisman reported that “Democrats across the country have been praying that [Manchin] will seek re-election rather than pursuing a presidential bid through the centrist political group No Labels, which could draw votes from President Biden and help elect a Republican.” Democrats may be hoping he doesn’t run for president but the Democrats I know, hope he doesn’t run for Senate either. He has pushed the Democratic Party further and further right that the party brand is so confused and tarnished that working class voters are just giving up on it. Manchin’s personal corruption is so grotesque that it makes the whole party stink.
In a brief interview in the basement of the Senate this week, Manchin said he would make a decision about his future by the end of the year. If he intends to run for re-election, he must inform the state by January.
“The bottom line is, I’ve been in West Virginia for a long time and moving in the right direction,” he said. “Our approval rating’s up quite substantially in a very, very, very red state. So I feel very good about all those things.”
He added, “We’ve got plenty of time.”
Still, decisions will have to be made before the political terrain becomes completely clear. The most important of his considerations is which Republican he would face. To win the nomination, Justice, a wealthy Democrat turned Republican, would have to defeat Representative Alex Mooney, a more reliable ally of Trump’s.
A poll last week for the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce encapsulated Manchin’s conundrum. The senator and the governor are both popular in the state, with 56 percent of voters approving of the job Justice has done and 51 percent approving of Manchin’s performance, numbers above even Trump’s 49 percent approval rating.
While the poll showed Justice beating Manchin handily in a hypothetical Senate contest, 51 percent to 38 percent, the poll also found that Manchin would narrowly lead Mooney, 45 percent to 41 percent.
(Manchin’s allies point out that his approval rating increased by 9 percentage points since 2021 in the poll, while Justice declined by 5 points.)
The conservative political action committee Club for Growth has said it will back Mooney in the primary. Joe Kildea, a spokesman for the group, said its political arm had raised about $14 million and would spend “whatever it takes.” That could bloody Justice, but money alone may not be enough for Mooney, who trails the governor among West Virginia Republican voters, 58 percent to 26 percent.
“We beat big-government, establishment RINOs all the time,” said David McIntosh, the president of Club for Growth, referring to the conservative slur “Republicans in name only.”
It is also unclear whether Trump will seek to get involved in the primary, set for May 14. In 2022, he endorsed Mooney in a House Republican primary against Representative David McKinley, and Mooney won easily. This time around, Trump is extremely unhappy with Club for Growth, which has funded an advertising campaign in Iowa imploring Republicans to back a different presidential candidate. Then again, he also likes to counter Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, who backs Justice.
Manchin is 76 and also considering retiring from politics and becoming president of West Virginia University, which is falling apart and can only get better from here.
