How Do You Find A Candidate Who Can't Beat Rick Scott?
Like most of the voters in western Miami, Carlos Curbelo is a Cuban-American. He was elected to Congress in 2014, defeating a corrupt Democratic incumbent Joe Garcia, and then beating him again 2 years later in a rematch. But in 2018, with a reputation as a RINO who boasted about not having voted for Señor Trumpanzee, he drowned in a tidal wave of DCCC money and was defeated 119,797 (50.9%) to 115,678 (49.1%) by Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. She’s an Ecuadorian-American, not a Cuban-American. It would just be a matter of time before the Republicans found a solid Republican Cuban-American to beat her. It came after one term where her role as a DINO did her as much good as Curbelo’s did him as a DINO. A member of the corrupt, corporate New Dems, who never accomplished a thing, she was handily defeated by Miami-Dade County mayor Carlos Giménez, 177,211 (51.7%) to 165,377 (48.3%). Since her defeat she’s worked as a gun control lobbyist. Now she wants Schumer to clear the field for her, the way he once did for Kyrsten Sinema.
I’m not a gambling man. I don’t bet on politics. But if she’s really going to run against Rick Scott next year, I’d make an exception. The chances of Mucarsel-Powell beating even as odious a character as Scott— short of a Democratic Party tidal wave— would be non-existent. (By the way, I'm starting to see signs of a 2024 national reverse GOP tidal wave.)
Schumer wants her to run, a good omen— for Scott and a terrible sign for Democrats. Other than that… it’s all about typical Democratic Party identity politics. The Hispanic Caucus and several other Democratic Party Hispanic groups wants her to run because… she’s Hispanic. EMILY’s List wants her to run because she’s a woman. The other candidates running are equally absurd contestants, a veteran who ran against Matt Gaetz twice and lost, Phil Ehr; state House minority leader Fentrice Driskell; and Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins. None of these people will come anywhere near Scott, an incredibly unlikeable incumbent in a year when voters are wondering if they can trust Republicans.
Last week Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said the party would begin an aggressive voter registration drive with a million dollar investment. That’s smart. So is rebuilding a party that is practically non-existent outside of a handful of shrinking blue ghettos. DeSantis’ overreach this year could help Democratic massively, though I doubt Mucarsel-Powell has what it takes to lead that kind of effort.
Yesterday, reporting for ABC News, Tel Axelrod wrote that “An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean— or the relative liberal or conservative history— of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too. For instance, the Democratic candidate in a Wisconsin State Assembly special election last month lost by just 7 points in an area where Republicans have a 22-point edge and where Trump beat Biden by almost 17 points in 2020. In a New Hampshire special election in May for a state House seat, the Democrat won by 43 points, far beyond the party's estimated 23-point edge in the district.”
This trend doesn’t work when Democrats pick especially shitty candidates— like Rudy Salas, Adam Gray and Christy Smith in Blue California districts and like Mucarsel-Powell in Florida. And that has long been, after all, both the DCCC's and Chuck Schumer’s specialty, finding candidates unwilling to embrace Democratic Party values, as though there is something wrong with them.