It'll Take More Than Wishful Thinking For A DCCC Triumph In Texas— Start With A Working Class Agenda

"Anticipating Midterms" by Nancy Ohanian

A few days ago, everybody’s favorite polling analyst announced that “Americans remain deeply dissatisfied with the political status quo and increasingly pessimistic about the nation’s direction” and that while “Democrats currently hold a slight edge [4 points] on the generic ballot for House races, and Trump and his legislative agenda remain broadly unpopular, particularly on key issues like deportations, inflation, and health care”… “most Americans say they're open to backing a third-party candidate, support collapses dramatically (by over 60%) when Elon Musk’s America Party is offered as a specific alternative.” Don’t count it out yet though. Like the U.K. Reform Party, also financed by Musk, this party hasn’t even started yet, let alone died.

I found it interesting on Thursday that, according to an NBC News report, Republicans are planning to use the threat of the Democrats impeaching Trump again as a way to win in the midterms. It could turn out MAGA voters who might otherwise sit out the midterms, but it could also turn out Trump-haters— and there are more of them than Trump lovers at this point. “[M]any Democratic leaders say they see impeachment as a distraction from bread-and-butter issues that may have more success in mobilizing voters— chiefly, the cost of living. ‘The No. 1 thing that folks want to hear about is what are you doing to lower costs. That’s been our top focus,’ Suzan DelBene (D-WA)., who chairs the DCCC, said in an interview Wednesday. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), who was the Democrats’ lead manager in impeaching Trump over the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, said his party’s focus is Trump’s ‘terrible agenda’— not impeachment. ‘We’ve already impeached him twice,’ Raskin said. ‘So obviously that’s not a complete solution, given that he is able to beat the two-thirds constitutional spread. So I don’t think anybody thinks that’s going to be the utopian solution to our problems.’… A survey at the end of May by Research Collaborative, a strategy group for progressive causes, asked likely voters who disapprove of Trump how they’d like to see Democratic leaders resist his administration and policies. A whopping 86% wanted to articles of impeachment introduced, compared with 14% who said they didn’t favor impeachment. ‘Voters who are open to voting for Democrats are saying consistently that they want Democrats to match their actions to their words and use every tool available to them to fight the MAGA agenda, including impeachment,’ said Tara Buss, senior director of research at the collaborative. ‘They want Democrats to stand up and fight,’ she added. ‘They feel that they’re under attack and impeachment is quite literally the only constitutional remedy that can stop the attack.’”

And they are under attack, especially in states like Ohio, Missouri and— most of all— Texas, where Trump has mandated gerrymandering schemes to deprive Democrats of congressional representation. In Texas there’s been increasing talk about how the scheme in that state could backfire. A few days ago Andrew Howard reported that one poll by a Texas firm found that 63% of likely voters— including 41% of Republicans— across 22 of Texas’ congressional districts think the effort to redraw lines in the GOP’s favor is unnecessary.

A memo sent to congressional offices by the DCCC this week, noted that “As Texas Republicans blindly follow orders from their party bosses in DC and gavel in a special session to try and gerrymander their slim hold on power, new polling highlights just how much of a political risk these Republicans are undertaking…  Texas Republicans are poised to deliver a map that over promises and under delivers. While 94% of respondents support funding flood warning systems and relief efforts in response to the July 4 storms in Central Texas, 54% of respondents think the Texas government is doing a ‘poor’ or ‘not so good’ job of responding to the flooding. Meanwhile, voters see Texas Republicans prioritizing a partisan power grab ahead of flood relief by a margin of 53% to 32%. Additionally, 63% of voters, including 41% of Republicans, agree that this partisan gerrymander is unnecessary. As the State Legislature cowers under order from the Trump White House, they need to know that voters are not on their side.”

In an environment where Democrats are consistently overperforming in special elections across the country and with public opinion turning against the Republican trifecta, re-drawing the Texas map is a dangerous proposition for House Republicans. Between 2016 and 2018, competitive congressional districts in Texas moved 7 points in Democrats’ favor. Given the political winds and favorable environment we anticipate, similar to the first Trump midterms in 2018, we can expect a similar shift. Any new map Texas Republicans draw will almost certainly increase the number of competitive districts, thereby endangering more congressional Republican incumbents. It’s basic math. 

Notably, following a message that highlights how Republicans are taking orders from DC and gerrymandering their congressional map rather than focusing on flood relief, vote choice for a named Republican drops 7 points (from -5 to -12). In fact, 62% of voters in these districts say the GOP’s prioritization of partisan gerrymandering will make them less likely to vote for Republican candidates for Congress. This rises to 67% of Independents and includes 21% of 2024 Trump voters. And in a direct contrast to the spin Republicans have been pushing all cycle, their support among Hispanic voters appears soft. Before any messaging, congressional Republicans are underwater with Hispanic voters in these districts by 22 points. This unpopularity falls to -34 points following the message laid out above. 

Furthermore, by rigging the congressional map, incumbent Texas Republicans are also making themselves more vulnerable to primary challenges. Thanks to a diluted incumbency advantage, across all 22 congressional districts surveyed, in no hypothetical Republican primary matchup did a congressional Republican incumbent garner more than 50% of the vote among Republican voters. 

Finally, we know that the unpopularity of Republicans’ Big, Ugly Bill has expanded our map nationwide due to voters’ disapproval of the law. This is no different in Texas, with 60% of voters saying the Big, Ugly Bill will make them less likely to vote for a Republican for Congress, including 71% of Independents. 

BOTTOM LINE: Should Texas Republicans decide to prioritize partisan politics in the wake of tragic flooding, the DCCC stands ready to expand our offensive, Districts in Play map.

The DCCC memo, the point of which was to beg Democratic members for money, pointed to a dozen Republican districts they hint they are ready to target. I wonder if they think they're going to scare any Republicans. Still, good to see them lying to their own members as readily as they lie to the Democratic grassroots:

• TX-02- Dan Crenshaw

• TX-05- Lance Gooden 

• TX-06- Jake Ellzey

• TX-08- Morgan Luttrell

• TX-10- Michael McCaul

• TX-15- Monica De La Cruz

• TX-17- Pete Sessions

• TX-22- Troy Nehls

• TX-24- Beth Van Duyne

• TX-25- Roger Williams

• TX-27- Michael Cloud

• TX-38- Wesley Hunt