October Surprises = Treason
When I was a kid, America had two shocking “October Surprises,” one from Nixon and Kissenger and another from Reagan and William Casey. Neither was ever prosecuted and both perps became president. Nixon and Kissinger, sabotaged the peace talks with North Vietnam during the 1968 election campaign, undermining the Johnson administration's peace negotiations with North Vietnam to improve Nixon's chances of winning the election. Kissinger and Anna Chennault encouraged South Vietnamese officials to resist participating seriously in the peace talks until after the U.S. election by promising them a better deal after Nixon was in office. Nixon’s motivation, of course, was to create a perception of failure on the part of the Johnson-Humphrey administration.
Had Nixon and Kissinger been charged, tried and shot, American history would have been very different— and very much better. Instead, Reagan and Casey, his campaign manager— and later CIA director— took it as a cue that they could get away with the same tactic. They illegally negotiated with Iranian officials to ensure that the hostages were not released before the election.
Nixon and Reagan are two of the most villainous presidents in my lifetime. Both, however, are absolute selfless patriots when compared to Trump who is currently— even blatantly— working to undermine Biden in all aspects of government… and generally with the open connivance of congressional Republicans. Yesterday we noted how even McConnell, who detests Trump, admitted the border crisis (and aid to Ukraine) will not be dealt with because Trump needs failure for his campaign. That, of course, is hardly all that Trump and his MAGA allies are sabotaging. The $80 billion tax package negotiated between House Ways and Means Committee chair Jason Smith and Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden— which would expand the child tax credit and revive corporate tax breaks in return— is being ripped apart by MAGA members, like Chip Roy (R-TX) and Josh Hawley (R-MO), in both chambers.
It’s worth noting that new polling shows that despite the sabotage from Trump and his congressional allies, most Americans (71%) support expanding the childhood tax credit (above)— and oppose (68%) the corporate tax breaks (below).
Back to sabotage on the border for a moment. Yesterday, Aaron Blake reported about a tweet by James Lankford (R-OK), the GOP’s chief negotiator on the border deal: “Only in Washington is our southern border political gamesmanship instead of a national security crisis.”
It wasn’t clear whom Lankford was accusing of political gamesmanship. But it came amid a growing push from the right wing of his party, Donald Trump and his allies to kill a promising potential deal.
And a week later, Republicans have done a great job confirming that they won’t do anything on the border for one big reason: political expediency.
…Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) called it “appalling” that Trump “would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame [President] Biden for it.”
…[S]pecifically citing Trump and his campaign takes things to another level. The objections don’t seem to just be about the difficulty in passing something or that it would be insufficient in stemming the flow at the border, but about how it would play politically. This from a party that has played up the immediacy of what it labeled a national security crisis at the border.
The shift also comes, notably, after McConnell and other top Republicans previously stressed the opportunity at hand— and the necessity to get something done now.
Senate Republicans last week actually pushed back when some of their GOP colleagues and conservative talkers suggested that legislation wasn’t necessary or that they should wait until Trump took office in a year.
Lankford called it “by far, the most conservative border security bill in four decades.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called it a “historic moment” and assured the GOP that it “won’t” get a better deal with Trump as president. “To get this kind of border security without granting a pathway to citizenship is really unheard of,” Graham said.
The No. 2 Senate Republican, Sen. John Thune (R-SD), offered similar comments, calling it a “unique moment” and arguing that there’s “absolutely no way” to get such a deal under Trump unless Republicans get a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority.
McConnell himself maintained that even full GOP control of Washington wouldn’t work, because “we probably would not be able to get a single Democratic vote to pass” the deal.
“This is a unique opportunity to accomplish something in divided government,” McConnell said.
The logical extension of those comments is that Republicans might be giving up doing something significant on the border: If it’s not going to happen under Trump, and you’re not going to do it now, it’s not going to happen, period.
And by sticking their necks out in favor of the push for a deal, they have made it look even more like political gamesmanship rather than national security concerns killed the agreement. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to dispute that Trump and some Republicans see political value in continuing the border crisis and declining to cut a bipartisan deal that could help Biden politically. GOP lawmakers are now talking openly about that.
A comment I keep coming back to on this is one from Rep. Troy E. Nehls (R-TX), who just came out and said it early this month: “I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating.”
By the way, all of the senators denouncing Trump’s sabotage— except Romney— are working to reelection him. And Romney isn’t running for reelection. Given his disregard for anything smacking of patriotism and given his close relationships with characters like Putin, Kim and the Saudis, I don't want to even think what Trump's October Surprise is going to be.