The 118th Congress Will Be Built On The Corrupt Bargain
Had Irish playwright Oscar Wilde met Kevin McCarthy, he might have used this phrase to describe him: “He has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends.” Wilde, the victim of one of the world’s first celebrity trials, was imprisoned for being gay, went into exile, impoverished and sick, when he was released and died at the age of 46 on November 25, 1900. That’s 122 years ago to the day. I’d bet that no one will remember Kevin McCarthy’s name in 122 years… unless he does something even more terrible than anyone expects. And people do expect terrible from the likely next Speaker of the House.
One thing everyone is saying about McCarthy right now is that he’s no Nancy Pelosi. He has a tiny mirror-imagine House majority to work with, 213-222. She knew how to make it work. Not only does he have no idea how to make it work, unlike her, he faces a conference that doesn’t want it to work, and especially not if there is anything smacking of compromise involved. The GOP is now a party of my way or the highway. “And the House GOP,” wrote Sarah Ferris before dawn today, “will have to steer legislation through with as few as four votes to spare while its leaders deal with an emboldened Freedom Caucus, internal finger-pointing over a disappointing midterm cycle, and a looming brawl over a 2024 presidential primary that features Donald Trump back in the mix.”
Some Democrats said they’re unconvinced the GOP conference can exhibit the same exacting discipline that it took their party to pass everything from a policing package to Pentagon funding to even their own Democratic budget. Thanks to Pelosi, her party ultimately passed several huge bills, including President Joe Biden’s multitrillion-dollar health, tax and climate package, with less than a handful of votes to spare.
“They’re going to be fraught with fractures and friction and challenges and apostates. I wish them well in trying to manage that crowd,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA).
And Connolly, who served in the minority under previous GOP leadership struggles, cautioned that McCarthy could have even more problems managing the conference over the next two years than his most recent predecessors, both of whom struggled with Freedom Caucus rebellions: “Paul Ryan and John Boehner both had a bigger majority, and they couldn’t exercise control.”
Both of those previous speakers struggled at times to even pass bills through their chamber. Then-Speaker John Boehner, for instance, watched his own party’s 2013 farm bill fail spectacularly on the floor, and often had to rely on Democrats to pass spending bills. Years later, former Speaker Paul Ryan was forced to withdraw the GOP’s effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act after a revolt from the center. And Ryan oversaw three government shutdowns during his relatively brief four-year tenure in the speakership.
McCarthy’s margin is smaller than either of those two faced. Further complicating his math problem, Republicans have pledged to do away with the cushion of pandemic-related proxy voting, which gave Pelosi critical breathing room when Democrats weren’t able to vote in person for any number of reasons.
Sometimes it was a coronavirus infection, a natural disaster in the district or a family emergency back home. Other times it was an out-of-state fundraiser or a family vacation. Regardless, Pelosi and her whip team could ensure those members would still vote— guaranteeing they had the numbers to pass their priorities despite any individual crises.
While Republicans say McCarthy will undoubtedly stick to his vow to ban proxy voting— which they’ve used to accuse Democrats of not showing up to work— privately some GOP lawmakers acknowledge they’re worried about their small margins, given that there’s bound to be at least a few absences from each floor vote.
And there’s always the possibility that the Republican majority could grow even slimmer. Democrats, for instance, had six members resign during the current Congress for jobs elsewhere, including the White House. Republicans had four members resign— including one who was convicted of campaign-related felonies. In all, six members died: five Republicans and one Democrat.
And that’s assuming McCarthy locks down the 218 votes he needs to win the Speaker’s job. There are 222 Republicans and 5 from the fascist wing have publicly stated they’re not going to vote for him: Matt Gaetz (FL), Matt Rosendale (MT), Bob Good (VA), Ralph Norman (SC) and Andy Biggs (AZ). That leaves him with 217 votes IF other fascists like Paul Gosar (AZ), Clay Higgins (LA), Michael Cloud (TX), Scott Perry (PA)… all get behind him. What kind of deal is he going to have to make to get these racists and Nazis onboard? Democrats have already christened it the Corrupt Bargain.
Marjorie Traitor Greene “landed an especially sweet corrupt bargain with McCarthy by throwing her support to him early. First, McCarthy promised MTG she would get committee seats— lost because of her open embrace of racism, antisemitism, and violence against Democrats— back and even possibly one on House Oversight. Then, MTG extracted the promise of a hearing on the plight of the violent January 6th insurrectionists being held in jail. Every day, MTG continues to reveal new pieces of the deal, saying McCarthy also promised to bring back the Holman Rule— which allows amendments to appropriations bills to cut the salary of or fire individual federal employees— so she can try to halt investigations into Trump by defunding the Special Counsel appointed to oversee the probes. McCarthy is engaging in a corrupt bargain— Democrats should be relentlessly pointing out this fact. The media should also be pressed to hold McCarthy accountable for his actions and to come clean about what secret deals are being cut behind closed doors to abuse the legitimate investigatory powers of Congress to falsely tar the Biden administration with allegations of malfeasance and corruption for political gain in 2024.”
The memo also notes that Gym Jordan “laid this all out in August at CPAC. Telling the crowd that the investigations Republicans plan to conduct, ‘will help frame up the 2024 race, when I hope and I think President Trump is going to run again. And we need to make sure that he wins.’”
