Grievance Without Governance— Let’s Watch The MAGA Majority Implode Over Trump's Agenda

Republicans At War With Themselves & Reality— Make America Gridlocked Again

We’ve been looking at Trump’s and MAGA Mike’s failing budget/reconciliation attempts through several lenses that have Republicans at each others’ throats— primarily Medicaid cuts, food stamp cuts, SALT changes and the overall scope of the tax cuts. “Trump has traditionally acted as House Republicans’ most effective whip when they are facing tough votes,” wrote Catie Edmondson, “leaning on holdouts in person and on social media and threatening to run an opponent against them if they fail to fall in line with the party. But when it comes to unifying GOP lawmakers around the most politically perilous piece of their budget plan— cutting Medicaid to pay for the tax cuts they want to enact— the president has made clear that he is not going to do any arm-twisting.” The finished bill is supposed to be on Señor T’s desk by July 4th. But there’s another important sticking point that they’re fighting about: the clean energy projects that Biden promulgated and that congressional Republicans opposed but that are now embedded in their districts, creating jobs and a stronger local economy. 

Yesterday, Richard Rubin looked at the GOP’s trouble getting over the hump that the cognitive-impaired and doddering Señor Trumpanzyy refers to as the “Green New Scam.” Rubin noted that “The Inflation Reduction Act’s incentive for renewable energy, electric vehicles and battery production are an attractive target for GOP lawmakers. Republicans opposed the law in 2022 under Biden, and Trump campaigned against it as the ‘green new scam’ that gave priority to clean energy over fossil fuels. Public and private estimates suggest the IRA’s tax breaks will far exceed the initial estimate of $271 billion over a decade. That indicates the credits’ popularity— and the opportunity to curtail them. The more IRA incentives that Republicans repeal, the more money they generate to pay for extending Trump’s expiring tax cuts and implementing his other priorities.”

So what’s the problem? Again— jobs and local investment, “particularly in rural Republican regions where it is easier to locate wind turbines, solar farms and factories. Republicans are sensitive to the argument that businesses shouldn’t be punished for making investments based on existing law. Those concerns, backed by industry lobbying, are driving Republicans toward IRA changes that offer a cushion to existing or already-planned investments. Rep. Lisa McClain (R-MI), a member of House GOP leadership, said some lawmakers want to roll back everything and others worry about effects in their districts. ‘If I’m a betting woman,’ she said, ‘it is going to come somewhere in the middle.’”

[Next week’s] Ways and Means proposal will be Republicans’ first detailed attempt to show which IRA incentives stay and which ones vanish. It could draw attacks from both wings— hard-liners seeking quick repeal and moderates favoring a gentler, targeted ramp-down. 

…Republicans are considering tax-raising ideas like limiting business deductions for executive pay and capping business deductions for state and local taxes. A $4 trillion limit puts pressure on IRA provisions and the GOP tug of war has become clearer in recent weeks. 

“Raising taxes on any American should be completely off the table,” said Brent Gardner, chief government affairs officer at Americans for Prosperity, a conservative group. “Doing it to protect green new scam slush funds is a gut punch to Americans.” 

The renewable energy industry is emphasizing its red-state credentials, pointing out that states such as Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky have seen some of the fastest growth for new, large-scale projects. They are adopting Trump’s “energy dominance” language and the “all of the above” language used by the oil-and-gas industry to describe their ability to help meet growing power demand for new data centers.

Unlike the SALT cap, it is unclear whether the IRA provisions are important enough for any House member—for or against—to kill the entire bill. Lawmakers have made their case with dueling public letters but avoided red lines. 

Rep. Josh Brecheen (R-OK) led 38 conservatives who argued in a letter that the tax credits distort energy markets and urged party leaders to reject half-measures. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and 11 other Republicans said lawmakers should see value in tax credits that support wind energy, solar power, hydropower, nuclear energy and other technologies.

Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), a Ways and Means member, criticized the IRA’s push into electric vehicles but indicated a gradual phase-down was possible in areas where businesses invested. 

“We respect the billions they may have encumbered,” he said. “Businesses, they had faith in the government then and we want them to have faith in us as well.”

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), who signed the Brecheen letter, said Congress must reprioritize energy policy and said businesses shouldn’t assume government programs are infinite. 

There is no guarantee that any House IRA changes survive the Senate. Four Republicans— Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, John Curtis of Utah, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Jerry Moran of Kansas— have already warned against drastic changes. 

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) said her state has seen investments since the IRA, citing Form Energy’s battery manufacturing operations. Capito said she favors keeping tax credits that will create jobs. 

“We need to look at them not broadly, but more surgically,” she said. 

The real problem for them is that the Republican Party is no longer a traditional governing party— it’s an unstable coalition of warring factions held together by shared grievance, not shared goals. Trump’s personality cult demands loyalty, but his agenda requires legislative coherence— and we’re seeing that that’s what the GOP sorely lacks. On the one hand, you’ve got the hard-right ideologues who see any compromise as betrayal, especially on social safety nets. On the other hand, swing-district Republicans can’t afford to vote for slashing popular programs that their own constituents rely on. Some— and from both camps— now find themselves in a bind over the clean energy investments they once railed against. As the Biden brain trust figured, the IRA’s green energy incentives have taken root in their districts, attracting billions in investment and creating thousands of jobs. They might call it the “Green New Scam” on Fox News, but back home, they’re cutting ribbons at solar panel factories.

This contradiction is paralyzing. Republicans want to repeal Biden’s signature climate policy, but they also want to keep the local economic boom it's sparked. Trump wants loyalty and obedience, but MAGA Mike can’t pass anything without the votes of members who are quietly benefiting from the very policies Trump demonizes. And unlike in 2017, there’s no clear legislative roadmap, no Steve Bannon strategy memos, no Paul Ryan to herd the cats— just a ridiculously hollowed-out party caught between performance politics and real-world consequences. The result? Gridlock; kabuki theater; empty threats about government shutdowns; and performative votes that go nowhere. Trump may still be the dominant figure in GOP politics, but he’s presiding over a party that increasingly functions as a chaotic feedback loop of its own contradictions— more interested in punishing enemies than governing, and incapable of delivering even on its own dystopian promises.