Next Tuesday, the House is scheduled to pick a new speaker and, shockingly, the Republicans are going to allow national secrurity risk George Santos— a McCarthy ally (unless he’s lying)— to be part of the process. Some say the likelihood of a new Speaker by the end of the day is slight. An increasingly desperate spineless, shape-shifting Kevin McCarthy doesn’t have the 118 votes needed. There are enough far right Republicans— led by Matt Gaetz— vowing to never vote for him, to keep him out of the office he would do anything to get. The fascists who oppose McCarthy want Gym Jordan instead and last night 15 more mainstream Republicans— Michael Lawler (NY), Young Kim (CA), Michelle Steel (CA), Don Bacon (NE), Dave Schweikert (AZ), Juan Ciscomani (AZ), Tom Kean (NJ), Jen Kiggans (VA), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR), Nick Lalota (NY), John Duarte (CA), Mike Garcia (CA), Marcus Molinaro (NY), Dave Valadao (CA) and Anthony D'Esposito (NY)— issued a statement that they won’t vote for anyone (meaning Jordan) but McCarthy. So… how does this deadlock get resolved, short of half a dozen Republicans making a deal with the Democrats?
McCarthy is desperately trying to make a deal with the fringe right— even though some of them (the Gaetz faction) say they don’t want a deal. Cavin’ Kevin, as he’s being called, has given in on demand after demand. Yesterday a far right Wall Street Journal editor, Kimberley Strassel, noted with some glee that McCarthy has agreed to a fascist demand to create a subcommittee of Judiciary called the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government to “investigate” the Department of Justice, the FBI and other laws enforcement agencies that fascists— and organized crime— see as their enemies. Frau Strassel wrote that the subcommittee’s creation “hinges on the rebels’ willingness to join the rest of their conference and back him in next Tuesday’s vote.” This is very tempting for them since it will give them an opportunity to spend all their time on their top half dozen obsessions:
Disrupting the IRS
Freeing the J-6 insurrectionists
Doing something to Anthony Fauci
Normalizing domestic terrorism
Hunter Biden’s laptop
Discrediting Merrick Garland
But this isn’t going to win McCarthy the speaker’s gavel, since any Republican who eventually gets the job will agree to this anyway, although Politico reported this morning that it’s enough to swing one clownish, obsessive fascist’s vote, Texas crackpot Chip Roy. OK-Kevin is holdinhg a conference call at 1 this afternoon with party machers. He seems to be ready to cave on another issue: raising the threshold for discharging a bill from committee from a simple majority to two-thirds of the chamber’s lawmakers. The discharge-petition process is used to bring bills to the floor that don't have the speaker's support. Punchbowl News reported this morning that "Some in the House GOP have seen a discharge petition as a way to lift the debt ceiling in 2023. Under this scenario, all House Democrats can join with five House Republicans to bring a debt limit increase to the floor and avert a potentially disastrous debt crisis, even if the leadership opposes the move. Agreeing to the conservatives’ request to modify the discharge-petition process would change the fabric of the House from a majority-rule institution to one where a two-thirds majority is needed to bring legislation to the floor... The way McCarthy’s orbit sees it, any five moderate Republicans can join with Democrats to pass a piece of policy with the discharge petition set at a simple majority. And any five Republicans can seek a vote to remove the speaker. It is mutually assured destruction, as one McCarthy ally put it."
Meanwhile, CNN highlighted the key concession that is more likely to bring McCarthy closer to the 118 votes he needs: “reducing the threshold that is required to force a floor vote on ousting the sitting speaker.” Melanie Zanona reported that “McCarthy has been trying to find a compromise threshold that would appease his critics enough to earn their speaker vote, while still being palatable to the rest of the House GOP, and has been sounding out all corners of the conference in private phone calls this week.” 5 may be the magic number that all the nuts agree to (other than Gaetz’s #NeverKevin faction that will never agree to anything).
Currently, the majority of the House GOP is required to call for the so-called motion to vacate the speaker’s chair. But some conservative hardliners are pushing for a single member to be able to call for such a vote, which they see as an important mechanism to hold the speaker accountable.
A five-person threshold, however, may be too low for the moderate wing of the party, some of whom have privately suggested they would be willing to agree on a 50-person threshold.
And some of McCarthy’s fiercest critics, including Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Ralph Norman of South Carolina, told CNN they see the five-person threshold as still too high, underscoring the significant challenge McCarthy faces as he works to lock down the speakership.
“No, less than 5!!” Norman said in a text message of the proposed motion to vacate threshold. “2 or less (my opinion).”
And Gaetz said: “He’s gotta get down to 1.”
All of this will be a major topic of discussion during a crucial conference call on Friday afternoon that McCarthy scheduled with the various ideological caucuses in the House GOP, just four days ahead of the January 3 speaker’s vote.
A compromise on the motion to vacate– which McCarthy previously said he would not budge on– could be key to unlocking the votes he needs to secure the speakership. And his willingness to negotiate on the issue also shows how desperate McCarthy is to seal the deal, even if it means giving away some of his power.
Still, other challenges remain. McCarthy, for example, wants a commitment from the holdouts that they will vote for him for speaker if he agrees to come down on the motion to vacate, but his critics want to see him make an ironclad commitment before they lend him their support.
“The ‘devil is in the details’ as far as threshold & other rule concessions,” Norman said. “Until the details are spelled out, in writing and sealed with social media posts, people will not move on votes.”
There are also informal talks that could lead to an agreement that McCarthy gets to be speaker for one term and agrees to not run for a second term. No one wants to acknowledge that and it isn’t likely to ever be made public— until someone spills the beans to curry favor with a reporter. But… it could be the one thing that Gaetz and his group will agree to. Other Republicans have told me that if McCarthy is willing to cave on all this now, what kind of a leader is he likely to make when he does get the gavel, especially if the threshold to remove him is so low. Or, as Jackie Calmes put it this morning, "McCarthy is, in short, a political hack who has put his own ambition for high office above the interests of the House and the country. Hence his fealty to Trump, a man he once privately alleged was in Vladimir Putin’s pocket... This purported protector of the House opposed an independent commission to investigate the Capitol assault on Jan. 6, 2021, even after the current speaker, Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi, agreed to his conditions. He refused to cooperate with the House select committee she created as a fallback."
