The 2020, the Illinois legislature— controlled by Democrats— redrew the 12th district. It was a relatively safe Republican district with an R+5 PVI represented by Mike Bost. To create a safe downstate Democratic district snaking from Champaign through Springfield and into Madison and St. Clair counties in the St. Louis Metro, the legislature turned IL-12 into a hellish red dumping ground with an unassailable R+24 PVI, the reddest district in the state.
In 2020 (a high turnout presidential election year), Bost had been reelected with 194,839 votes (60.4%) against Democrat Ray Renzi’s 127,577 votes (39.6%). Under the new boundaries in 2022, (a midterm, with a lower turnout), Bost trounced Democrat Chip Markel— 218,379 (75.0%) to 72,791 (25.0%). That is one safe Republican district! Except for one thing— a primary… from the right. And that’s what Bost is about to face. Badly defeated MAGAt gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey is primarying him. Both were endorsed by Trump and both would like Trump to endorse them in this race. That would probably decide the winner.
Bailey’s announcement video is filled with MAGA red meat: “Boys playing in girls sports.” “Illegal immigrants crossing the border every day,” “we need someone who is not politically correct.” It’s over a minute before we hear from Bailey… and then it’s to denigrate the president. “Joe Biden is ruining our country.” Pure MAGA claptrap— but nothing Bost wouldn’t also say: “the southern border’s collapsed, crime is rampant, families are having trouble putting food the table, and all of that woke stuff… The elites and lobbyists are selling out America.” And unlike in normal places in America, Bailey leaned right into overturning Roe v Wade. It’s that kind of district. Under these new boundaries Trump beat Biden there 70.5% to 27.7%.— a better Trump performance than any district in Kansas, Utah, Mississippi, Indiana, Iowa, Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana or Arizona or even West Virginia!
Bailey was a far right state senator before he ran for governor. He may have lost the gubernatorial race by double digits, but he won every county in IL-12. He’s going to have to make the case that he’s more a MAGAt than Bost is. And he probably can. Bost is a very hard right conservative, but not a member of the House “Freedom” Caucus nor a neo-Nazi type, and I suspect Bailey will go right there. Bost’s campaign manager, Myles Nelson accused Bailey of dividing conservatives and said that “Bailey is putting selfish opportunism and personal ambition ahead of the interests of Southern Illinois conservatives. Republican primary voters won’t forget that.”
We’ll see what they forget. Bost hasn’t had a primary opponent since 2018. The NRCC was out with an unfriendly statement, that was almost certainly written by Myles Nelson, immediately after Bailey’s announcement: “Darren Bailey moved to a downtown Chicago penthouse to get blown out by JB Pritzker, now he’s back seeking another political promotion. Mike Bost is focused on delivering conservative results for Southern Illinois and that’s why voters will re-elect him.”
It will be interesting to see how the Highland Park July 4th massacre of 2022 plays out in 2024. His comments to “move on” after 7 people died and dozens others were injured in a mass shooting did not go over well. He said 90 minutes after the shooting: “Friends, let’s pray for the law enforcement and even the organizers of this parade. They’ve done an amazing job. There’s a lot of confusion and frustration that the parade’s been canceled but they did the right thing because people’s safety has got to come first. The shooter is still at large. So let’s pray for justice to prevail, and then let’s move on and let’s celebrate the independence of this nation.” He was savaged on social media. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) tweeted “This is what happens with MAGA type candidates. They have been so trained with ‘own the libs’ and anger that they lost the ability to have compassion.” He wound up apologizing, which just made him look weak.
Shia Kapos, writing for Politico, reported that Trump previously “called Bost a ‘terrific representative’ for the 12th district” when he endorsed him last year.
This is the first real contest for Bost, whose last primary challenge was in 2018. Bost has consistently won his district by double digits against Democrats, including in 2022 when he won by 50 points. Bost has more than $648,000 on hand, according to FEC records.
A Trump endorsement would be huge in the high-profile contest.
A person familiar with the Trump campaign said House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has told the former president that he supports the reliably conservative Bost, who also endorsed McCarthy’s election for the top House job.
Bailey’s team would also like an endorsement, though short of that would want Trump to remain neutral.
Trump likes to back winners, and he could be miffed that Bailey lost by double digits to Pritzker.
The governor’s race drew national headlines when Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association spent $35 million on ads during the Republican primary to define Bailey as a far-right conservative against a more moderate candidate. That fueled the Republican base to get out the vote and secure Bailey’s place in the general election— and eased the way for Pritzker’s victory.
The ads also helped build Bailey’s image as a MAGA Republican. He has assembled a strong grassroots following and is seen in Illinois Republican circles as a formidable candidate against Bost.
Illinois has one “Freedom” Caucus member, QAnon crackpot Mary Miller. Her endorsement in this race may wind up being more important than a nose-bleed seat backbencher might be expected to have. Miller is very tight with Marjorie Traitor Greene. If Trump decides on neutrality but Miller and Traitor Greene back Bailey, that will be seen as tacit Trump approval.
This meet up with local press Tuesday at his announcement will tell you a lot about how this campaign is going to unfold. Notice how he slips it in how Bost has become “too cozy with the establishment.” It’s worth listening to: