Yesterday, the NY Times asked what will Haley’s supporters do in November. Few doubt what Haley will do, though. She will endorse Trump and probably not vote for him behind the voting both curtain. Haley would like to be a 2028 presidential contender. She has to make a calculation— will the GOP still be a MAGA hellhole worshipping Trump or will it have moved on in horror? Or, more likely, something in between.
Saturday, less than 40% of South Carolina GOP voters opted for their former governor. Even if all of them voted with the Democrats in November (or even just sat it out)— and they won’t— Trump will still win South Carolina’s 9 electoral votes. In 2020, Trump won the state 1,385,103 (55.1%) to 1,091,541 (43.4%). Like Haley did yesterday, Biden won the two counties with the biggest cities, Charleston (with 55.5%) and Richland (Columbia, with 68.5%). He’ll probably win them again— as well as the Black belt counties. But the Up Country counties are blood red. Not even mentioning 150,021 votes in Greenville, 93,560 in Spartanburg and 92,817 in Lexington, these are the counties that gave Trump his big wins in South Carolina. These are 2020 totals:
Pickens- 74.6%
Oconee- 73.0%
Cherokee- 71.4%
Anderson- 70.3%
Saluda- 67.0%
Horry- 66.1%
Laurens- 65.6%
Katie Glueck and Anjali Huynh interviewed Haley voters last week. Many felt that “Biden is too old and Trump is horrible,” what pollsters call the “double haters,” not fans of either contender. Their interviews were in the relatively moderate, pro-Haley parts of the state. Still, “Roughly half of those interviewed… said that in a Biden-Trump matchup, they would side with the Republican, while expressing varying degrees of discomfort. That number would almost certainly be higher in the actual results of the general election, after Americans have retreated further into partisan corners.”
America has very few persuadable voters left, and that may be especially true in a Biden-Trump rematch. Both men have been on the national stage for decades, and voters formed opinions of them long ago.
But a few Haley voters who said they had supported Trump in 2020 stressed that they would not do so again. They cited his behavior after his defeat, including his election denialism that led to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
Any erosion in 2020 support for either Trump or Biden could prove consequential this year, especially with third-party candidates in the mix.
…A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll found that 82 percent of Haley voters overall said they would back Trump if he faced Biden… Biden is 81 and Trump is 77, but polls show the age issue tends to hurt Biden more.
On CNN Thursday, Haley asserted that “Donald Trump will not win the general election. You can have him win any primary you want— he will not win a general election.” She says she’ll stay in the race at least through Super Tuesday, 9 days from now.