Do You Think The MAGA Cult Is Being Dishonest About Their Drastic, Unpopular Social Safety Net Cuts?

Señor TACO has wooed and/or intimidated mainstream media outlets to such an extent that none of them are looking to run headlines like this completely obvious one from yesterday’s Rolling Stone: REPUBLICANS ARE FLAT-OUT LYING ABOUT THEIR MEDICAID CUTS. Nikki Ramirez didn’t seem to have any trouble reporting that as Señor T’s big ugly bill “heads to the Senate, Republicans are trying their hardest to sell voters on the prospect of deep cuts to Medicaid and other social safety net programs in order to fund tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy. The process has involved plenty of bold-faced lying to constituents.”

She spells it out in plain English (and mathematics): “Republicans’ current reconciliation bill will kick an estimated 15 million Americans off of their health care coverage by 2034. The expected coverage rollback will primarily be fueled by increased requirements for Medicaid recipients, as well as changes made to Affordable Care Act marketplace policies and the failure of the bill to renew tax benefits for ACA plan purchasers. Last month, Trump told reporters that he and Republicans were ‘not doing any cutting of anything meaningful. The only thing we’re cutting is waste, fraud and abuse. With Medicaid, waste, fraud and abuse. There’s tremendous waste, fraud and abuse.’ In a Sunday interview with CNN, Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought, claimed that ‘no one will lose coverage as a result of this bill,’ and accused backlash to the legislation of being ‘astroturfed. This bill will proserve and protect the programs, the social safety net,’ Vought added.”

Ramirez then does what the talking shows hosts will never do— fact check the lies: “In reality, the bill cuts spending on Medicaid by at least $600 billion over the next 10 years. What Republicans say are measures to curb “waste, fraud, and abuse” in the program are largely administrative hurdles intended to bog down potential recipients in paperwork and red tape in order to complicate enrollment in the programs.

Vought’s statements to CNN represent Republicans’ latest strategy to combat increased hostility from voters over unpopular cuts to popular programs. As members of the GOP move to market the legislative package to constituents, their unified message has been that the legislation somehow protects Medicaid, and that any American who loses their health care coverage doesn’t deserve it, and even that they would only be giving it up voluntarily.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) accused Democrats of using “fear tactics— not the truth— when they speak to the American public.” 

“Chuck Schumer claims Republicans want to dismantle Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, but the reality is we’re working to safeguard these programs,” she wrote on Twitter.

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) told the New York Post  told the New York Post last month that the bill “worked to protect critical services like Medicaid,” while eliminating those who were “gaming the system.” 

In a separate tweet, Lawler wrote that the reconciliation package “strengthens Medicaid for seniors, single parents, and the I/DD community by eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse,” by eliminating coverage for “illegal immigrants” (who were already ineligible for most Medicaid programs), eliminating “scam artists” from the program, and instituting “work requirements for able-bodied adults without dependents.” 

What Republicans like Lawler avoid acknowledging is that the vast majority of able-bodied adults on Medicaid already do work. Over 60 percent of recipients work either full or part time, where as the remainder largely do not work because they are disabled, ill, a primary caregiver, or a student. 

Several other Republicans, including Reps. Zach Nunn (R-IA), Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA), and Rob Wittman (R-VA) all used some version of the phrase “protecting Medicaid” in public statements defending the legislation.  

Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) wrote on Twitter that Republicans had “protected Medicaid for those who need it,” adding that “work requirements for able bodied adults w/out children helps get 4.8 million back into work force & on employer provided insurance.”

It’s a fancy way of saying that 4.8 million people would be forced out of the program, according to estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.  

On Sunday, House Speaker Mike Johnson told NBC News’ Meet the Press that concerns about individuals losing coverage were overblown. “The people who are complaining that these people are going to lose their coverage because they can’t fulfill the paperwork, this is minor enforcement of this policy, and it follows common sense,” the speaker said. 

“4.8 million people will not lose their Medicaid unless they choose to do so,” Johnson added, insisting that “the American people are not buying” Democrats’ messaging around the bill. 

But even as House Republicans make their pitch to increasingly angry voters, they’re being undermined by some of their colleagues in the Senate. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) has called the legislation’s attacks against Medicaid “politically suicidal,” and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) told CBS News on Sunday that the cuts are “a bad strategy” to deal with GOP concerns about the national debt. (The deficit will increase, not decrease, as a result of the legislation.)

But perhaps the clearest acknowledgement of how awful the legislation is came from one senator who didn’t even bother denying that the bill would have potentially awful consequences for Medicaid recipients. On Friday, during a town hall even in her home state of Iowa, an attendee yelled out “people will die” as Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) defended the “big, beautiful,” bill. 

Ernst simply paused, and told the audience, “Well, we all are going to die.” If Republicans get their way, many people will be dying a lot sooner than they hoped.

Mike Sacks is the progressive Democrat running for the seat Lawler managed to slip into— and then hold— because the DCCC is the most dysfunctional organization that ever existed on God’s green earth. Sacks told us that “Lawler lied to us, and we know it here in NY-17. He can no longer hide behind the half-truths and distortions that served him so well before Trump returned to office. Now everyone sees that he only plays moderate up here in our district while casting the deciding vote for MAGA down there in DC. He's all in on Trump's agenda to pay for tax cuts for the rich by stealing from the rest of us.”

Ryan Mackenzie, granny-killer

We introduced Mark Pinsley, the progressive up against Ryan MacKenzie in northeast Pennsylvania yesterday. Today he told us that “Apparently, in Ryan Mackenzie’s dictionary, ‘protect’ is a synonym for ‘slash and burn.’ Good to know. My office called Ryan multiple times to review what will happen to Medicaid should the cuts come... never responded to me in my political role. Mr. Mackenzie speaks of ‘protecting Medicaid’ with the ease of a man who need not rely on it. When pressed on what will happen to the poor if these cuts take hold, he calls them ‘common-sense cuts.’ I suppose it’s easy to be sensible when it’s not your care on the line.”

As Lehigh Co. Controller, Pinsley put out a press release when Mackenzie voted for HR-1 (Trump’s “one big beautiful bill) noting that it “imposes complex new reporting rules and work requirements that could result in thousands of Lehigh County residents losing Medicaid coverage. It also threatens to eliminate funding mechanisms that help local hospitals and nursing homes stay afloat, potentially raising premiums for working families. Lehigh County has already faced a $14 million cash flow shortfall due to delayed state reimbursements for Medicaid-related services. If these disruptions continue and new federal cuts take effect, the County may be forced to borrow, risking a credit downgrade or stop local services until a reimbursement is received.” 

In a memo to the Lehigh Co. Board of Commissioners, he warned of key impacts HR-1 would have on the county:

Eligibility, Complexity, and Administrative Backlogs

• Beneficiaries may now be required to verify eligibility twice a year instead of once, and must also meet monthly work reporting requirements to maintain coverage. Individuals may be required to provide physical, paper documents (not electronic) such as birth certificates or other proof of citizenship, to verify their eligibility. This process cannot be completed online and must be repeated every six months.

• Individuals with chronic or intermittent disabilities, such as multiple sclerosis or mental illness, may need to continuously send medical records to the state that have been prepared by their doctor to remain covered.

• Pregnant women, including those covered by the ACA (not Medicaid), may be subject to work requirements. If they need time off due to pregnancy, they must notify the state and provide medical documentation to avoid disqualification. There is no clear guidance on how soon after giving birth they will be expected to return to work.

Lehigh County Assistance Offices Staffing Shortfalls

• The Lehigh County Assistance Offices (CAOs), which are run by the state, is where individuals apply for Medicaid. Many believe that these offices are already overwhelmed. Each recipient is assigned a caseworker, but those workers are overstretched.

• New eligibility checks and monthly work verification rules will significantly increase the workload without any planned increase in state staffing or system resources.

Delayed State Reimbursements and Local Cash Flow Crises

• Pennsylvania counties, including Lehigh County, are experiencing major cash flow disruptions due to state delays in reimbursing services such as child welfare, behavioral health, and medical assistance.

• Lehigh County filled a 14 million dollar shortfall in the first quarter of 2024 using reserve funds made available under the American Rescue Plan funds. Those funds will no longer be available by the end of 2026.

• If state reimbursement delays persist, Lehigh County may be forced to borrow to continue operations. This could result in a lower credit rating, raising the cost of borrowing and increasing the burden on taxpayers.

Increased Pressure on County-Funded Safety Net Services

• Lehigh County often provides essential services not covered by Medicaid, including drug and alcohol treatment and care for individuals with mental or intellectual disabilities.

• These services are typically funded through a combination of state and federal funds. If individuals lose Medicaid due to paperwork failures, the county may see a rise in demand for services.

• Individuals seeking county support must first demonstrate they have been denied Medicaid. This requirement can be especially difficult for those with cognitive or psychiatric disabilities who may struggle with the documentation process.

• Without added support to help these individuals navigate eligibility, the county will face a choice between expanding service assistance capacity or allowing vulnerable residents to go untreated.

Most of the PA-07 voters live in Lehigh and Northampton counties and Mackenzie lost them both, albeit very narrowly. But he won with landslide margins in more rural Carbon and Monroe counties, both of which, ironically, are going to suffer what Pinsley described for Lehigh... but far more drastically.