Don't Follow The Establishment Down The Tim Scott Rabbit Hole
I might have missed it but has anyone asked Tim Scott to comment on DeSantis’ latest bow towards GOP racism— making schools teach that slavery was lovely for Africans enslaved in the South since they learned skills? I’m wondering because, much like the media pumped up DeSantis before they knew what a monster he is, they’re starting to rally around Scott, probably not even realizing that his status as a closet case is going to come out sooner or later and mortify the MAGA base. It may mortify non-MAGAts as well, since he has an ugly homophobic voting record and because, when the lifelong bachelor was asked about his views on homosexuality he said he opposes same-sex marriage, and considers homosexuality a morally wrong choice, like adultery. "We are by nature sinful," he said sadly. All these positions stem from what he calls "timeless principles."
Yesterday, Harry Enten suggested that Scott may be the one to watch. Really? The just-released Fox polling of Iowa's likely Republican caucus goers doesn’t show Scott with much of a chance there, although could catch up with a tumbling DeSantis for aa very distant second place:
Señor Trumpanzee- 46%
Meatball Ron- 16%
Tim Scott- 11%
Ramaswarmy- 6%
Nikki Haley- 5%
Pence- 4%
Chris Christe- 3%
Doug Burgum- 3%
Așa Hutchinson- 1%
Francis Suarez- 1%
Larry Elder and Will Hurd can’t quite break through that 1% barrier. Reporting for Fox, Dena Blanton wrote that “Education is the biggest differentiating factor in support. Some 57% of those without a college degree favor Trump compared to 33% of those with a degree. DeSantis garners 20% among college grads, followed by Scott at 13%. Scott’s best groups include college-educated women, voters ages 55-64, and women over 45, while DeSantis gets high support from men with a college degree, men under age 45, conservatives, and those who regularly attend worship services. Some of Trump’s best groups are voters under age 35, those without college degrees, very conservatives, and voters who rarely attend religious services.”
I wouldn’t bet on Scott to do well in Iowa. He can survive that. But what he’ll have a harder time serving is if he crashes in his own state. And Fox also released a new poll of likely GOP primary voters in South Carolina. If the primary were held today, Scott, who is well-known in the state, would come in 4th:
Trump- 48%
Nikki Haley[ 14
DeSantis- 13
Scott- 10
Pence- 4
Ramaswarmy- 3
Christie- 2
Asa Hutchinson- 1
Everyone else is under 1%.
Enten’s point was that Scott is charming GOP fat-cats and he’s bringing in lots of money from those who are desperate to derail Trump (now that it’s clear Meatball Ron’s not going to be able to). Enten holds out hope that “a number of key indicators— from favorability ratings to early-state polling to fundraising— suggest Scott may be the GOP candidate to watch.” And Republicans don’t know him yet. Nothing wrong with watching; just make sure you don’t bet on Scott making any headway.
Enten suggests that among voters who are already paying attention, Scott is making headway. “Take a look,” he proposes, “at the most recent Quinnipiac University poll that asked about all the GOP candidates’ favorable ratings. Among Republicans who had formed an opinion of DeSantis, Scott and Trump, Scott was the most popular. His favorability rating of 89% beat Trump’s 82% and DeSantis’ 81%… [A] high favorable rating often earns a candidate a closer inspection by voters. That happened to DeSantis earlier this year, helping him to climb in the polls. He has since fallen considerably behind Trump in national surveys, showing that such an examination doesn’t always work out in a candidate’s favor. Scott, however, seems to be picking up some steam in the states that matter most at this point in the race: Iowa and New Hampshire. A candidate who is going to break through against Trump and DeSantis would need to do so in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.”
He’s excited that Scott is in third place in Iowa and New Hampshire, although there’s no bronze award in electoral politics. Still, unlike DeSantis, the more voters get to know Scott, the more they like him, according to Enten. Almost half the Republicans nationally don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.
Scott has two things on his side that will allow him to gain recognition as the race progresses.
First, his campaign has a lot of money. Scott’s apparatus had $21 million in cash on hand as of June 30— second only to Trump in the Republican primary. DeSantis was in third place with $12 million on hand.
Many campaigns don’t even make it to the primaries because they run out of money. Scott’s campaign, at this point, does not seem in danger of that. The money his campaign does have can be spent on organization and advertisements.
A super PAC supporting Scott likewise will get his name out to voters. It has reserved $40 million in ad time at the beginning of the fall across the early nominating states (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina).
Second, voters want to hear more from and about Scott. All the money in the world can’t help a campaign if voters aren’t receptive to the message. (See: Jeb Bush in 2016.)
Our CNN/SSRS poll from May revealed that Scott was the candidate GOP voters most wanted to hear more about. A plurality (29%) of Republicans who weren’t selecting Scott in the presidential race said so.
The big question going forward is what happens when Scott gets challenged directly by the other candidates. At the moment, the press coverage and most attacks are focused on Trump and DeSantis. It’s easy to be seen as a nice guy when the spotlight isn’t that bright.
That spotlight will become brighter if Scott’s numbers begin to move up considerably.
But if he can handle the big stage, then watch out. Scott could surprise a lot of people in the presidential race.
This morning, Politico, hinted that his fellow Republicans may try dragging Scott out of the closet— as long as no one’s fingerprints are on the outing. His rivals “have started plotting an effort to arrest Scott’s momentum and drag him back into the pack.” Meatball Ron and Haley are the most likely to move against him, albeit surreptitiously and are “beefing up their oppo files on the senator… ‘He’s never really had a real challenger in terms of a serious primary or general, so in that sense he’s pretty unvetted,’ said one ally of a rival candidate. ‘The scrutiny will come.’… The underlying material has already, by and large, been publicly documented. And none of his rivals have so far been willing to go on the record taking a punch at the man who’s become the Mr. Congeniality of the 2024 field, let alone spend money to amplify the attacks… Said Nathan Brand, Scott’s communications director: ‘This bottom-feeding oppo is so weak and dishonest that even Tim Scott’s political opponents won’t put their names on it. Clearly, those seeking to slow Tim’s momentum are seeing the same polling we are.’”
Not even Politico dared to mention "the love that dare not speak its name" and chalked the chatter up to his stands on foreign policy and criminal justice reform, silliness like that that no one cares about. It's too embarrassing for any of them to discuss, especially with no solid PROOF. Remember, "everyone" knew about closeted GOP congressional characters like Mark Foley, Larry Craig, Denny Hastert, David Dreier and dozens of others for years before the proof became undeniable-- like when Senator Craig grabbed a hot young undecover policeman's penis in a public toilet. Officially, even Lindsey Graham and Miss McConnell are still "straight." And no Republicans ever mention Matt Gaetz's teenage "son," Nestor Galban... It's too embarrassing for them and too risky for too many of them. The most they'll hope for in that people start whispering about Miss Congeniality.