Democrats’ Self-Delusion Is Dangerous For Us All

Biden has one thing going for him: his opponent-- is it enough?

-by Patrick Toomey

To any halfway sentient being, it is now painfully obvious that Joe Biden’s chances of re-election are diminishing by the day. Here are approval ratings on March 5 in the 4th year of the last 3 presidencies:

• Obama— 48.6%

• Trump— 42.4%

• Biden— 38.2%

The president in who was in the high 40s in 2012 was a vigorous campaigner with obvious charisma— he won by a solid margin. The president who was in the low 40s in 2020 could at least rally his base at rallies— he still lost by a solid margin. The president who is in the high 30s in 2024 is consciously avoiding crowds at this stage.

President Joe Biden’s team is increasingly taking extraordinary steps to minimize disruptions from pro-Palestinian protests at his events by making them smaller, withholding their precise locations from the media and the public until he arrives, avoiding college campuses and, in at least one instance, considering hiring a private company to vet attendees.

The efforts have resulted in zero disruptions at events the White House or the campaign have organized for Biden in the five weeks since he was interrupted a dozen times during an abortion rights speech in Virginia. But they have also meant that Biden is appearing in front of fewer voters and not personally engaging with some of the key constituencies whose support he is struggling to gain, such as young voters.

Arguably the biggest advantage that an incumbent president has is his ability to affect the narrative. In particular, the incumbent can use the aura of the office to create a positive vibe for his campaign. I still recall Gerald Ford coming to Boca Raton (my hometown at the time) while he was campaigning in the Florida GOP primary in March 1976. It was a huge deal locally— a big crowd and lots of free media coverage. I went and saw him myself even though I (obviously) wasn’t a supporter of his. 

Team Biden is consciously giving away one of their biggest advantages by consciously choosing to hide their lamp under a bushel basket. They’re consciously trying to MINIMIZE local publicity for campaign visits. 

Given their continually shrinking margin for error, that’s a major problem.

It’s not exactly like Biden was a successful past national candidate. He had to drop out in the early stages of the 1988 campaign after it was disclosed that he was pilfering campaign speeches from UK’s Labour Party Leader Neil Kinnock (kind of like stealing lyrics from Barry Manilow). In 2008, he quickly dropped out after getting 0.9% in Iowa.

Biden was badly beaten in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada in 2020, after which James Clyburn’s machine resurrected the Biden campaign in the South Carolina primary. The day after Biden won his first presidential primary in 3 candidacies (in a state Democrats routinely concede), the party establishment rallied behind him en masse. He quickly rolled on to the nomination thereafter.

There’s no point in belaboring the 2020 primaries, other than to note how unusual the trajectory of his campaign was. It’s also worth noting that, in the sole noteworthy aspect of her utterly forgettable abortive presidential campaign, Kamala Harris openly blasted Biden for his opposition to school busing in the 1970’s, and her campaign followed up with a photo of her as a child who was being bused to school.

It’s further worth noting that, during that campaign, 2 other candidates (Cory Booker and Julian Castro) openly questioned Biden’s mental acuity.

The currently widespread meme about Biden’s fitness for office isn’t exactly new, nor is it an exclusive province of his GOP critics. The post-South Carolina astroturf Biden boomlet in March 2020 belied the fact that there never was a genuine groundswell of enthusiasm behind him then. There is, if anything, even less enthusiasm behind him now.

All of us are utterly terrified by the prospect of Trump II. At this stage, we can be equally concerned that the Democratic standard-bearer who now appears to be last barrier against Trump II is simply not up to the task. It’s past time to acknowledge the fact that 237 years of constitutional traditions cannot rest in such shaky hands.