Former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger won a tough district for a Democrat when she first ran in 2018. The partisan lean was R+5 but she lucked out when GOP incumbent Dave Brat— who had beaten beat Eric Cantor— ran a crackpot campaign that melted down during the race. Spanberger flipped the district blue. Last year she switched districts for a safer Democratic seat north of her old district with a D+2 partisan lean. It’s been no secret that she’s been angling for statewide office. Yesterday, Politico broke the news: she’s running for governor.
It’ll be great getting her out of Congress… She’s among the dozen most reactionary Democrats in the House, a shitty voting record at the bottom of the barrel. Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris reported that she’s been opening up to insiders that she plans to make the gubernatorial run in 2025, when Youngkin is termed out.
Any announcement from Spanberger would likely not come until after Virginia’s highly competitive state legislative elections this November. But her ambitions— and that possible timeline— threaten to add uncertainty about the battle for the House in 2024.
Democrats will have to defend Spanberger’s competitive district to have a shot at retaking the majority.
Spanberger can run for reelection to her House seat and immediately launch a statewide run. But the congresswoman and an aide told two Virginia Democrats last spring that she does not plan to seek a fourth term in Congress, according to two people familiar with those conversations. Sam Signori, who ran Spanberger’s 2022 reelection campaign to Congress, is expected to manage her governor’s bid as well.
…Spanberger isn’t the only Virginia Democrat with an eye on the governor’s office. Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and former Virginia House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn are among the most likely candidates to enter the contest.
The battle will not kick off in earnest before Virginia’s state legislature elections this November. Democrats are fighting to hold onto the state Senate and flip the House, with the fate of abortion access on the line in the final years of Youngkin’s term.
Spanberger is a prodigious fundraiser who could bring a network of national donors to the race. In the 2022 cycle, she raised upward of $9 million. She’s been raising money at a brisk clip in 2023 for her congressional reelection, ending June with nearly $1.2 million in the bank.
Virginia has very few limits on who can donate or how much. And under the state’s notoriously lax campaign finance laws, Spanberger can use funds raised for a federal race to run for statewide office.
But a transfer from her congressional account to a gubernatorial campaign carries risks. It could upset donors who contributed to her House campaign with the goal of reclaiming a majority in that chamber. It could also put some Virginia donors in an awkward spot given that they may prefer another Democrat running for governor in the— likely to be— highly competitive 2025 primary.
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears is likely to run for the Republican nomination. There are also rumors that former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman is talking about running as an independent.
As for Spanberger’s House seat, Republican Yesli Vega will probably run again. Last year, Spanberger beat her 143,357 (52.3%) to 130,586 (47.7%). Vega lost Prince William County and Fredericksburg but won Greene, Orange, Madison, Culpeper, Stafford (by a hair), King George, Caroline and Spotsylvania counties. The establishment wants to run rotgut conservative Jeremy McPike but progressive Elizabeth Guzman would be a very strong contender. Others talking about running include Ben Litchfield, former Del. Joshua Cole, Prince William School Board Chair Babur Lateef, Joel Griffin, former Del. Hala Ayala, and former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy, most of whom suck to one degree or another. Guzman his easily the best possible candidate— a real upgrade from Spanberger.