Republican Jim Jones served 8 years as Idaho attorney general (1983-1991) and 12 years as a justice on the Idaho Supreme Court (2005-2017), chief justice for his final 2 years. Despite Trump winning Idaho in 2020— 63.9% to 33.2% the state party convened last year to consider a resolution declaring Biden was not legitimately elected. Jones pointed out thoughtfully that "the party has gotten so caught up in conspiracy theories, meaningless culture war issues, that they have quit being able to function as a meaningful political party. We have got to get away from this authoritarian streak that has infected the Idaho Republican Party, as well as a good part of the nation, because it’s absolutely tearing our country apart.
Yesterday, he wrote an OpEd for The Hill, The GOP is rushing headlong into huge election losses in 2024. Many professional prognosticators are but all of them are too scared to make such a bold statement at this point in the cycle— which is why it’s so valuable to see Jones’ reasoning… aside from noting that his party is made up of lemmings, “doubling down on positions that will cause them great heartache on election day.”
He began by warning Republicans about going to the voters with an albatross around their necks again. “The fact is that Trump simply can’t and won’t win another term. He is wrong on the issues, he has no vision for a second term other than trying to establish an autocracy, and he will likely be convicted in one or more of the criminal cases that are currently in the works. The majority of American voters are still swayed by important issues, and Trump is wrong on most of them. Abortion extremism and gun safety will be major issues in 2024. Neither issue favors Trump and down-ballot Republicans.”
Abortion is particularly tricky for Republicans because they have doubled down on tighter restrictions, even though a majority of Americans disfavor that position. Trump has equivocated on abortion, claiming credit for the overturning of Roe v. Wade but cautioning Republicans against supporting further restrictions.
…Another issue has surfaced that will loom large in the 2024 elections— our increasingly dangerous climate. In past years, Republican climate deniers were able to convince enough voters that global warming was not a looming disaster. They pointed to snowstorms as proof that climate scientists were wrong— a bona fide snow job. With the catastrophic weather that has been wreaking death and destruction across the U.S. and around the globe this year, that will no longer work to assuage the electorate.
And, as they say, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Tornadoes have become more widespread across the country and more destructive. Biblical downpours have ravaged Texas, California, Vermont and a host of other states. Historically high temperatures are plaguing a great portion of the country. This issue will likely have a major influence on the 2024 elections because the heat next year, as one scientist predicted, “will probably leap to a whole new level.” If that turns out to be the case, voter demand to combat global warming will also leap to a whole new level.
…I believe Republicans will lose the presidency by a wide margin, whoever the party’s candidate might be, the Democrats will end up with a House majority of at least 20 members and the Senate majority could go either way by one or two members.
But it isn’t all Trump’s toxicity seeping down-ballot. Republicans in Congress are doing a horrible job making their own bed without Trump, with a weak speaker unable to protect his own swing district members from crazed extremists forcing them to vote on their pet issues that will never become law but will lead to defeats for as many as a dozen Republican incumbents as they vote on abortion restrictions, anti-LGBTQ amendments, amendments that deny the urgency of the Climate Crisis, amendments that alienate suburban voters by refusing the rights of communities to regulate gun safety… and now the newest nonsense: expunging Trump’s two impeachments.
Two of Trump’s gals dreaming of running for vice president— sociopath Marjorie Traitor Greene (in her she district with an R+45 lean) and Elise Stefanik (representing a GOP dumping ground with an R+17 lean)— introduced 2 expungement measures. McCarthy would rather they just disappeared by he promised Trump to pass them. Yesterday, Mike Willis and Mychael Schnell reported that House Republicans are finding themselves on a collision course over efforts to expunge the impeachments, a battle that pits the MAGAts and fascists pressing for a vote against more mainstream conservatives “already warning GOP leaders they’ll reject it… putting McCarthy in a no-win situation. If he doesn’t stage the vote, he risks the ire of Trump and his allies. If he does, the measures would be shot down, validating Trump’s impeachments just as his legal troubles are piling up.”
The issue is just the latest in a long string of debates challenging McCarthy’s ability to keep his conference united while Trump— the GOP’s presidential front-runner who’s also facing two criminal indictments— hovers in the background.
…“It should definitely come to the floor and be expunged,” said Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), a member of the Freedom Caucus and vocal Trump ally [and delusional VP wannabe].
“I’m hoping to see it get done before August recess,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), a lead sponsor of one of the resolutions, told reporters, later adding that “these are impeachments that should’ve never happened, and so we would like to expunge them.”
The expungement push is anathema to many [mainstream conservative] Republicans, particularly those facing tough reelections in competitive districts, who are treading carefully not to link themselves too closely with Trump.
Some of those lawmakers are already vowing to vote against the measure if it hits the floor— all but guaranteeing its failure given the Republicans’ narrow House majority— and some of them are proactively reaching out to GOP leaders to warn them against staging such a vote.
“I have every expectation I’ll vote against expungement, and I have every expectation that I will work to bring others with me,” said one moderate Republican who requested anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic, noting “I think my views represent a fair number of principled conservatives.”
“We can’t change history. I mean, that impeachment vote happened. And I just don’t think we should be engaged in the kind of cancel culture that tries to whitewash history.”
The lawmaker added: “I’ve communicated that with leadership.”
…Expunging an impeachment has never been attempted. And opponents of the move in both parties are quick to point out that it has no practical significance because the impeachments happened and can’t be reversed.
“There’s no procedure for expunging an impeachment,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), a former constitutional law professor who led Trump’s second impeachment. “It’s completely meaningless.”
…McCarthy, who relied on Trump’s backing to win the Speaker’s gavel this year, threw his support behind expungement in late June, telling reporters the first punishment “was not based on true facts,” and the second was “on the basis of no due process.”
“I think it is appropriate, just as I thought before, that you should expunge it because it never should have gone through,” he said.
After fading from prominence for about a month, the conversation over expungement cropped back up following Politico’s report, which came days after the former president said he received a “target letter” from the Justice Department informing him he is the subject of their investigation into his efforts to remain in power following the 2020 election— which includes the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
…The discourse over expungement, however, is dividing House Republicans at a precarious moment for McCarthy as Congress stares down a Sept. 30 deadline to fund the government or risk a shutdown.
The appropriations process is already causing controversy within the House GOP conference, as hard-line conservatives— many of them close Trump allies— push leadership to enact aggressive cuts, which includes setting spending at levels lower than the agreement McCarthy struck with President Biden in May.
Trump has thus far stayed out of that debate, as he’d done earlier in the year during the debt-ceiling battle. But he remains a wildcard in the weeks leading up to the shutdown deadline, especially if his legal problems worsen and the pressure on his congressional allies to provide some form of exoneration— even if symbolic— grows more pronounced.
Democrats, meanwhile, are not sympathetic.
“The Republicans face a serious political problem,” Raskin said, “because they have wrapped their party around the fortunes and the ambitions of Donald Trump.”
These are the 18 Republicans in Congress whose districts Trump lost in 2020, though plenty more than just these are also going to lose their seats next year:
Anthony D’Esposito (NY-04)— Trump 42.2%
David Valadao (CA-22)— Trump 42.3%
Mark Garcia (CA-27)— Trump 42.7%
John Durate (CA-13)— Trump 43.4%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05)— Trump 44.4%
Mike Lawler (NY-17)— Trump 44.4%
Brandon Williams (NY-22)— Trump 45.2%
George Santos (NY-02)— Trump 45.4%
Don Bacon (NE-02)— Trump 45.8%
Michelle Steel (CA-45)— Trump 46.0%
Marc Molinaro (NY-19)— Trump 46.7
Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)— Trump 47.2%
Tom Kean (NJ-07)— Trump 47.3%
Young Kim (CA-40)— Trump 48.0%
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)— Trump 48.2%
David Schweikert (AZ-01)— Trump 48.6
Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)— Trump 49.2%
Nick LaLota (NY-01)— Trump 49.3%
And this is how each of those Republicans did two years later when they ran without Trump on the ballot to drag them down. Most won very narrowly, but next year Trump will be on the top of he ticket:
John Durate (CA-13)— 50.2%
Mike Lawler (NY-17)— 50.3%
David Schweikert (AZ-01)— 50.4%
Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)— 50.7%
Brandon Williams (NY-22)— 50.8%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05)— 51.1%
Marc Molinaro (NY-19)— 51.1%
Don Bacon (NE-02)— 51.5%
Tom Kean (NJ-07)— 51.6%
David Valadao (CA-22)— 51.7%
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)— 51.7%
Anthony D’Esposito (NY-04)— 51.8%
Michelle Steel (CA-45)— 52.4%
Mark Garcia (CA-27)— 53.2%
George Santos (NY-02)— 54.1%
Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)— 55.0%
Nick LaLota (NY-01)— 55.9%
Young Kim (CA-40)—56.8%