The Democratic and Republican Parties in Nassau County were both over the moon when Congress kicked George Santos out of Congress. They both got to avoid crowded messy primaries (I.e., democracy) that allowed part bosses to pick who they wanted as candidates. The Republicans were petrified that unelectable MAGA crackpot Phil Grillo would win a primary with a dozen contenders. After the bosses’ first choice, state Sen. Jack Martins, refused to run— he’s already been beaten by teh Democratic candidate, Tom Suozzi for the same seat once before— the machine got behind an Ethiopian Israeli registered Democrat named Mazi Melesa Pilip. Anything is better than Grillo, who was arrested as part of the J-6 insurrection and calls himself the “Republican messiah.”
The party bosses, much to their chagrin, can’t pick the candidates in the Senate races next year. Leigh Ann Caldwell and Theodoric Meyer wrote though the map has the Dems facing an uphill battle in their quest to keep control of the Senate, the establishment Republicans are involved in messy primaries that could upend their chances at taking control.
Republicans aligned with Mitch McConnell have been trying to correct the mistakes of the past and avoid GOP candidates who can't win a general election, they reported. Republicans caught a break when Manchin (D-WA) decided last month against running for reelection, meaning they feel certain to win his seat, not understanding the salience of a working class populist, Zach Shrewsbury (endorsed by Blue America). “Democrats’ path to holding the Senate is not easy: They must win every seat they hold, and President Biden must win reelection so Vice President Harris maintains her tiebreaking vote in a 50-50 Senate.” Or Lucas Kunce— also endorsed by Blue America— could pull off an historic upset and beat Josh Hawley in Missouri.
They report that “Even with the odds in Republicans’ favor, there is much room for error. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell’s mantra: ‘Candidate quality matters.’ He blames subpar Republican candidates for costing the GOP control of the Senate in 2010, 2012, 2020 and 2022. [The party machine] didn’t get involved in primaries those years, and primary voters elected candidates who were too extreme to win statewide. This cycle, [the party machine is] fielding candidates in seven states that Democrats are trying to protect, including the red states of Ohio and Montana and the swing states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.”
Republicans will be running against highly experienced Democratic incumbents in six of the races. It’s a high-stakes effort that has not yet fallen the way Republicans would like.
Democrats see the primary process as a huge vulnerability for the GOP that could help their effort to maintain control of the Senate.
“Oftentimes in those primaries, the most right-wing, most extreme candidate wins the Republican primary,” Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in an interview last week. “They also tend to be damaged, and their flaws are quite apparent to voters once they get through a contentious primary.”
“The biggest question is: Do Republicans get quality candidates? And that’s still a big question,” said Jessica Taylor, editor for Senate and governors races at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Sen. Steve Daines (MT), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the NRSC has had success clearing the field in some states, including Pennsylvania, where its chosen candidate, David McCormick, is the only viable candidate running.
But Daines noted, “We never avoid all primaries.”
Republicans are facing potential complicated primaries in Michigan, Ohio, Montana, Nevada and Wisconsin.
“When I look at the primaries, Montana is the most consequential primary, but I think Michigan has the chance to be the messiest,” said Taylor, the Senate race handicapper.
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester knows how to win in Montana, and he is working to separate himself from the national party, including when he just last week opposed the import of beef from Paraguay.
If Republicans’ preferred candidate, Tim Sheehy, doesn’t win the primary, it could blow the party’s best pickup opportunity in a state that voted for former president Donald Trump by 16 points.
Sheehy is already running, but hard-right Rep. Matt Rosendale is threatening to jump in. While he won’t have as much money, he is liked by the base. Rosendale has won statewide primaries before but has never won a statewide general election. A Democratic-aligned super PAC, Last Best Place, engaged in the Republican primary this month, trying to tilt it to Rosendale.
Michigan is the only open seat Democrats are contesting as Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring. [Corporate conservative] Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is the favorite, but she does face a handful of primary challengers, including from [progressive] actor Hill Harper.
But the primary for Republicans is threatening to fracture the vote.
National Republicans are backing former representative Mike Rogers. But at least three other candidates are complicating his efforts, including former one-term congressman Peter Meijer, who lost his primary last cycle because of his vote to impeach Trump.
Two other candidates, a former head of the Detroit police, James Craig, and Sandy Pensler, a wealthy businessman who is likely to self-fund, are also in the race and will pull from the Trump base. Pensler, however, will probably have more money to run a competitive race.
“The Democrat primary is far messier than the Republican primary,” Daines said in defense.
In Ohio, the other red state that is one of Republicans’ top pickup opportunities, three candidates are vying for the Republican nomination to run against Sen. Sherrod Brown. National Republicans say they are supportive of any of the three candidates: former car dealer Bernie Moreno, state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Dolan is running as the most centrist candidate, while Moreno is running the closest to Trump. A Trump endorsement could boost a candidate.
“If a candidate emerges bloody from a primary, that’s a problem,” Taylor said.
Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for reelection in a state that Democrats insist is getting redder, and Army veteran Sam Brown is the clear GOP favorite. But he could face a challenge from election-denying, failed secretary of state candidate Jim Marchant or Jeffrey Gunter, Trump’s former ambassador to Iceland.
“Sam Brown is way out front, both in the polls and fundraising. It’s not even close,” Daines said.
Preferred Republican candidates, including Rep. Mike Gallagher, have passed on the race against Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Republicans are confident that self-funding candidate Eric Hovde will enter the race in the first quarter— but until he does that, Baldwin is coasting in a state that Republicans have targeted as an opportune pickup.
[Polls show the GOP primary favorite is MAGA lunatic David Clarke, which would be perfect for Baldwin, who would likely beat him by over points.]
Arizona is also complicated. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat turned independent, has not announced whether she will run.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has announced a run. So has right-wing candidate Kari Lake, who lost the gubernatorial race last cycle. Lake struggles to attract general election voters, but Sinema could split the vote.
Peters declined to say whether he would back Sinema over Gallego if Sinema decides to run.
“We have battle-hardened candidates and incumbents,” Peters said, adding that abortion will continue to play a major role. (Stay tuned! We’ll have more on the role of abortion later this week.)