New Poll Says Yes!
Deb Fischer was elected to the Senate in 2012, reelected in 2018 and there’s no reason to think she wouldn’t be reelected again next November. After all, Nebraska is one of the reddest states in the country— with an R+13 PVI, worse that Texas, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana, Montana… and that same as Utah. Trump won the state in 2020 with 58.51%, winning 91 of Nebraska’s 93 counties. Biden won Douglas (Omaha) and Lancaster (Lincoln). Long gone are the days when an FDR could sweep 91 counties and 63% of the vote (1932) or 79 counties and 57% of the vote (1936). FDR lost om 1940 and 1944 and Truman lost in 1948 (11 counties and 45.8% of the vote). More recently it’s been like this:
Obama (2008)- 41.6%
Obama (2012)- 38.0%
Hillary (2016)- 33.7%
Biden (2020)- 39.4%
Fischer trounced conservative Democratic former senator and former governor Bob Kerrey 57.77% to 42.23% in 2012 when another very conservative Democrat, Senator Ben Nelson read the handwriting on the wall and decided to retire. Six years later, the Democrats barely ran a candidate at all and Fischer coasted to a second term. This cycle it doesn’t look like the Democrats will, instead backing Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran, industrial mechanic and local union president running as an independent.
Fischer, a school board member who the represented a rural area in the state legislature, has been a mediocre, garden variety conservative Republican senator. She ran on a platform of limiting senators to two terms—and promised to limit herself to just two terms— but… she’s running for her third. She’s a climate change denier, an NRA extremist, and a xenophobic imbecile.
Osborn is running on a populist platform that focuses primarily on Nebraska-centric issues, like reforming railroad safety, a “right to repair” for farm equipment and a level playing field for family farms and ranches— stuff like this:
The family farm underpins our economy, our national security, and our way of life.
That way of life is under threat. With inflation, with blunders in trade policy, with consolidation at every level of the industry, farmers face a “perfect storm”; and our federal government, instead of ensuring a level playing field, too often subsidizes and underwrites multi-national firms at the expense of family farmers.
We must:
Pass “Right to Repair” for farm equipment. Without a right to repair their own equipment, farmers and ranchers are effectively locked into costly lifetime contracts with manufacturers. Industry MOUs (like the John Deere agreement) fall far short of true right-to-repair.
Fix federal crop insurance subsidies, which unfairly favor large operators and help them outcompete family farmers for land and resources. We can start by adjusting the insurance agent commission formula, which currently disincentivizes agents from selling to small farms; and by improving coverage for specialty crops.
Support local meatpacking alternatives to the Big 4. Market conditions have made it almost impossible for new firms to enter the meatpacking market. Farmers and ranchers have no alternative but to comply with the monopolistic and anti-competitive practices of the Big 4. The federal government can encourage workforce development and loan programs to allow competitors to succeed.
When he declared his candidacy, the Omaha World-Herald noted that, “if elected, Osborn said he would make protecting small businesses, family farmers and other Nebraska workers his top priority. ‘Historically, Nebraska has produced leaders who think in terms of issues, not parties; politicians with broad appeal across party lines, who could bring people together around common goals,’ he said. ‘The divisions in this country are threatening our great democratic experiment. Nebraskans are looking for a leader not a politician.’ Osborn’s Senate bid saw support from Jeff Cooley, president of the Midwest Nebraska Central Labor Council; Lawrence Mozena, Weeping Water City Council president; and Gary Osborn, former Dodge County commissioner and Osborn’s father.” He’s 48. Fischer is 72.
Reporting for the Nebraska Examiner, Aaron Sanderford interviewed him. “Osborn,” he wrote, said he chose to run as ‘an independent’ or nonpartisan because voters he talks to from both parties are more open to a message from a candidate who doesn’t play for the team they dislike. He said he can ‘see the wall drop’ when he tells people he’s not for either side. He acknowledged that he also faces a steep climb in fundraising and organizing without a state and county party apparatus behind him. He said he knows he will have to work 40 hours as a steamfitter and get on the phone and on the road with voters… He said people in both parties are looking for something different because both parties are beholden to ‘the monopolistic corporations and the invisible things that actually run this country.’ He said he won’t take donations from corporate PACs.”
And, then, last week, came the shocking results from a poll from Change Research that shows him leading Fischer 40-38% (while showing the same voters favoring Trump over Biden by 16 points)!
Reporting for CommonDreams yesterday, Steve Early wrote that “At a campaign kickoff event in late September, Osborn denounced ‘the monopolistic corporations… that actually run this country” and pledged to “bring together workers, farmers, ranchers, and small business owners across Nebraska around bread-and-butter issues that appeal across party lines.’… In addition to voting for a senator next November, Nebraska voters will consider a ballot measure backed by teachers in the Nebraska State Education Association. It would repeal a Republican-backed tax scheme that aids private schools instead of financing public education.Osborn sides with the teachers, showing what [Democratic Party chair Jane] Kleeb calls ‘a real contrast’ between Osborn and Fischer, who has built a $2.7 million re-election campaign war-chest. Fischer’s top donors include construction bosses, defense contractors, her Senate Republican colleagues, and AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee). Osborn has raised more than $100,000 in small donations so far. He believes that his Senate race could be ‘the most viable independent campaign in America’ next year, particularly if Nebraska’s Democratic primary produces no serious competition for Fischer’s seat."
"Meanwhile," contnued Early, "he is spending 40 hours a week doing boiler maintenance and repair work at Boys Town in Omaha, as a member of Steamfitters and Plumbers Local 464. Osborn hopes to take more time off from his day job soon to campaign around the state, with backers like Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety. This advocacy group just conducted a favorable poll and then endorsed him. Their survey of 1,048 likely voters revealed considerable discontent with Fischer, who promised to serve only two terms but is now seeking a third. Despite Osborn’s lack of name recognition, their poll showed he had a slight lead over Fischer, which grew larger when survey participants were informed about the biographies and positions of both candidates. The Nebraska Railroaders are taking that as an encouraging sign that their state still has an independent streak that could help ‘elect a next-generation representative of the working class instead of continuing to send out-of-touch millionaires back to Washington to fail us.’”